I have analyzed every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets over this lengthy journey. It’s been a long project, but I wanted to make sure that you, the reader, have something you could refer to for every team. For each article, I’ve split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Throughout the series, I’ve referenced my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Chargers and close out this adventure.
High-End Assets
Austin Ekeler
I already explored Austin Ekeler in a redraft journey piece that looked at Ekeler’s entire fantasy career. To summarize, Ekeler’s fantasy value has increased every year, going from the RB44 in 2017 to RB25 in 2018 and finally RB4 in 2019. In both 2017 and 2018, Ekeler played as the third-down back behind Melvin Gordon. Even in that role, he had flex appeal, although he didn’t do much on the ground except when Gordon missed games.
However, in 2019, Gordon decided to hold out for the first four games. In those four games, Ekeler averaged 26.8 PPG and was the RB2, only behind Christian McCaffrey. Even once Gordon returned for Week 5, Ekeler still played well for the rest of 2019 and was the RB10 after Gordon came back. In total, Ekeler had 132 carries for 557 yards and three touchdowns, but he exploded for 92 receptions on 108 targets and eight touchdowns through the air.
For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a starting quarterback not named Philip Rivers. Rivers was a checkdown machine unlike almost any other quarterback in the NFL, as he heavily targeted all his running backs, not only Ekeler. The Chargers drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as their long-term starting quarterback and have Tyrod Taylor as their bridge starter.
Both Taylor and Herbert scare me for Ekeler’s overall value. Taylor has never thrown for more than 3,035 yards as a starting quarterback. Also, running quarterbacks like Taylor tend to avoid checking down to their running backs and prefer to scramble instead. On the other hand, Herbert is a rookie who I believe is raw and will tank the entire offense if he sees the field. No matter who starts, I don’t see any way Ekeler matches his 108 targets from 2019.
I don’t expect either quarterback to support a good passing offense, giving me pause in selecting Ekeler with a premium pick. The Chargers still have a reliable backup in Justin Jackson, and they drafted bruiser Joshua Kelley in the fourth round. I’m more afraid of Kelley than Jackson, but either could take carries away from Ekeler. Ekeler is my RB13 and 21st overall player, but he comes with massive risk. Keep that in mind if you use your second-round pick on Ekeler.
Usable Contributors
Keenan Allen
Take my concerns about Ekeler, double them, and then apply them to Kennan Allen. After Allen missed the entire 2016 season with an ACL injury in Week 1, he’s been a target hog the past three seasons.
| Year | Games | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG |
| 2017 | 16 | 159 | 102 | 1393 | 6 | WR3 | 17.8 |
| 2018 | 16 | 136 | 97 | 1196 | 6 | WR12 | 16.3 |
| 2019 | 16 | 149 | 104 | 1199 | 6 | WR6 | 16.3 |
As you can see, Allen’s consistency is remarkable. He’s played all 16 games each season and had similar stat lines in each year.
However, this streak of consistency is about to end. I expect the Chargers to transition to a run-heavy offense in 2020, taking pressure off either Taylor or Herbert. They have an excellent real-life defense and plan to slow down the game, trying to win games through that defense. There’s no way Allen approaches these numbers in the type of game scripts the Chargers will have in 2020.
Rivers threw for 4,300 yards each year during Allen’s run, whereas Taylor has never come anywhere near that mark as a starter. The Chargers also threw 597 passes in 2019, 10th most in the NFL. I think the Chargers will be lucky to have 500 total passing attempts in 2020, which would far exceed Taylor’s career-high in passing attempts.
I don’t think Allen has declined in talent at all going into 2020. He just turned 28 years old in April, and he’s in the prime of his career. Additionally, the Chargers didn’t add any significant receiving weapons, and Allen is the clear top receiver. Allen will continue to dominate slot snaps, opposite Mike Williams on the outside and Hunter Henry at tight end. Allen also never comes off the field, as he excels as an outside receiver in addition to playing well in the slot.
Therefore, I have to balance Allen’s superb talent and his awful situation when ranking him for fantasy. I ranked Allen as my WR19 and 48th overall player. I doubt I’ll have him on any teams in 2020, as his name value and strong track record should lift his ADP come August. Allen is an excellent example of why it’s important to remember that fantasy football is a game of the future, not the past.
Hunter Henry
I feel like a broken record, but I feel almost the same way about Hunter Henry as I did about Ekeler and Allen. Henry is a talented player in the prime of his career that I would love for fantasy if not for his terrible situation. However, unlike Ekeler, who will have guaranteed rushing volume, and Allen, who is the clear top receiving target on the team, Henry doesn’t offer the same comfortable or safe floor in 2020.
In 2019, Henry had 55 receptions on 76 targets for 652 yards and five touchdowns. He finished as the TE9, despite only playing 12 games. He averaged 12.5 fantasy PPG, eighth among tight ends. Henry had the fourth-most targets on the Chargers in 2019, behind Allen, Ekeler, and Mike Williams. Even though Williams out-targeted Henry in total, Henry had more targets per game. Additionally, Taylor heavily targeted tight ends, most notably Charles Clay, during his time in Buffalo.
On the negative side, Henry has never played a full season as a starter throughout his four-year career. In 2016 and 2017, Henry split snaps with Antonio Gates and missed a couple of games with injuries. Then, Henry tore his ACL in the 2018 offseason, which kept him out for the entire 2018 season. He recovered in time for the start of 2019 but then missed four games with a tibial plateau fracture he suffered in Week 1. Therefore, Henry undoubtedly comes with heightened injury risk based on his history.
Going into 2020, the Chargers slapped the franchise tag on Henry, guaranteeing him a $10.6 million salary for the 2020 season. Because of that price tag, they will undoubtedly use Henry in the offense as a primary weapon, along with Ekeler and Allen. Henry is my TE7, just behind Tyler Higbee, but ahead of Evan Engram. However, Henry is only my 81st overall player. I believe that the best way to handle tight end in 2020 is to avoid the mid-range players. I plan to grab either Kelce or Kittle in the second round or to wait until much later and take my favorite flier in the final few rounds. Henry won’t be on any of my teams this year.
Dart Throws
Mike Williams
The Chargers drafted Mike Williams with the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Williams then missed most of his rookie year with injuries. In 2018, Williams split time with Tyrell Williams at outside receiver and had 43 receptions on 66 targets for 664 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also added seven carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Even though Williams had 10 touchdowns, his low volume meant that he only finished as the WR32.
After 2018, Tyrell Williams signed with the Raiders in free agency, allowing Williams to take a more significant role in the Chargers’ offense. He started all 15 games he played and improved to 49 receptions on 90 targets for 1,001 yards. However, Williams only scored two touchdowns; a significant decline from 2018. Since Williams couldn’t find the end zone for most of 2019, he finished as the WR41.
Going into 2020, I have almost no hope for Williams as a fantasy asset. The Chargers did pick up his 2021 fifth-year option, so they plan to have Williams as a starter at outside receiver. However, he’s clearly behind Allen and Ekeler for targets, and I believe the Chargers will play a more conservative offense with either Taylor or Herbert as their starter. Therefore, I doubt they go downfield to Williams as much as they did with Rivers. I don’t want to draft Williams at all in 2020, and he’s my WR49. I can’t see Williams getting enough volume to matter unless there’s an injury to Allen or Henry.
Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson
If Kelley were the only early-down running back on the Chargers, I would love to draft him. Even in only 12 games in 2019, Melvin Gordon had 162 carries, averaging 13.5 attempts per game. I think the Chargers keep Ekeler in a similar role on the ground and also run more as an offense, leaving around 14-16 carries for the non-Ekeler backs.
The problem here is that the Chargers have stated they like Jackson and want to use him, as well as incorporating Kelley. Jackson has 5.1 YPC on 79 career carries, although he’s never been a regular player. I do think that Jackson is a talented running back and will get some carries.
In drafts, I prefer to draft clear secondary options or direct handcuffs instead of players in three-way committees. Without an injury, I have no idea who to prefer between Kelley and Jackson, so I’m avoiding both players. I’d lean toward Kelley in drafts, as I have Kelley at RB57 and Jackson at RB66. This backfield is critical to monitor going into training camp, as I would significantly move these two players up or down my rankings based on camp reports.
Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert
Ironically, I see Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert as exact opposites for fantasy football. Taylor is a safe quarterback with a low passing volume, which is terrible for his fantasy weapons. However, Taylor provides a safe rushing floor for fantasy. He finished as the QB15 in 2015, QB8 in 2016, and QB16 in 2017. As Taylor isn’t a guaranteed starter, he’s only ranked as my QB29, but I like him as an early-season streamer. His first four games are against the Bengals, Chiefs, Panthers, and Buccaneers, which is a fantastic schedule.
On the other hand, Herbert is an entirely different player. He loves to throw the ball all over the field and doesn’t have the same mobility as Taylor. I think he’s inaccurate and will struggle to succeed in real-life, but he might boost the overall passing volume. I would have zero interest in Herbert as a fantasy option at quarterback, but perhaps he could help the weapons, especially Williams. My prediction is that Herbert will see the field at some point in 2020, although because of the pandemic and shortened offseason, I wouldn’t count on seeing Herbert early on.
Other Receiving Options
The Chargers drafted two receivers in the 2020 NFL Draft, fifth-rounder Joe Reed and seventh-rounder K.J. Hill. Neither player is relevant in redraft formats, but I like both as long-shot talents. Reed is a gadget-type player and should begin as a returner, while Hill is a primary slot receiver. Keep an eye on both players, but don’t worry about them during the redraft season.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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