I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Bengals.
High-End Assets
Joe Mixon
Up until now, Mixon has disappointed fantasy owners compared to his potential. The Bengals drafted Mixon with the 48th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. The team expected Mixon to compete with incumbent running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard for carries and receptions. In his rookie year, Mixon led the team with 178 carries but only had 626 yards and four touchdowns. He added 30 receptions on 34 targets for 287 yards, but he wasn’t a fantasy force. He finished as just the RB34 with 10.1 fantasy PPG.
Coming into 2018, the Bengals moved on from Hill, leaving only Mixon and Bernard as significant pieces in the backfield. Mixon had a stellar 2018 campaign, where he took 237 carries for 1,168 yards for 4.9 YPC and scored eight touchdowns. He also caught 43 of 55 targets for 296 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the RB10 and ninth in fantasy PPG with 17.4. Mixon found success despite playing on a poor Bengals’ offense.
Unfortunately, Mixon somewhat regressed in 2019. While he played all 16 games for the first time in his career, he failed to live up to his efficiency from 2018. Mixon was fourth in the NFL with 278 carries. The trouble is, he turned those carries into only 1,137 yards and five touchdowns. The Bengals and new head coach Zac Taylor moved away from using Mixon in the passing game, giving him only 45 targets. Mixon still finished as the RB13, but he went down to only 14.1 fantasy PPG, only 19th among running backs.
Going into 2020, the Bengals will have a new offense, as they drafted Joe Burrow with the first overall pick to replace the former starter, Andy Dalton. Burrow heavily utilized a pass-catching running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire in his final college season. Clyde caught a historic 55 receptions in 2019. If Burrow does the same with Mixon, he has every opportunity to be the solid RB1 he could be. I expect Mixon to get a similar rushing volume, but he should score more than five rushing touchdowns.
Based on his potential upside, Mixon comes in as my RB6 and eighth overall player. He’s never quite put it all together for a whole season. Yet, I believe Burrow will revitalize the Bengals’ offense and finally unlock Mixon’s true potential. There is also no serious competition for carries on the Bengals, although Bernard should continue to split receiving work with Mixon. I’m totally fine selecting Mixon in the first round. In fact, I expect to have him on some teams where I have a later first-round pick.
Usable Contributors
A.J. Green
Green might be the player that has the highest range of outcomes in 2020 redraft leagues. I think Green could be anything from a solid WR1 to completely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Green missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury and missed most of the second half of 2018 with a toe injury. Therefore, Green hasn’t been consistently on the field in almost two years. Additionally, the Bengals franchise-tagged Green this offseason and haven’t yet signed him to a long-term extension, which comes with a July 15 deadline.
Green comes with numerous question marks. However, let’s not forget how successful Green has been as a fantasy asset when healthy and on the field. He performed strongly despite playing with mediocre quarterback Andy Dalton. In 2018, Green was the WR8 in Weeks 1-8, averaging 18.5 PPG. He caught 45 of 76 targets for 687 yards and six touchdowns, which would have paced for 90 receptions, 152 targets, 1,374 yards, and 12 touchdowns over a full season.
Similarly, Green was solid in 2017, where he played all 16 games, although not quite as good as 2018. He was the WR10 with 75 catches on 143 targets for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns, but he only averaged 14.2 PPG. 2017 might have been the outlier. Green averaged 18.6 PPG in 2016, 17.1 in 2015, 15.8 in 2014, and 19.2 in 2013. He did miss six games in 2016 and three in 2014, but he played a full season in 2015 and 2013.
Now, Green has a new quarterback in Burrow, who I believe will perform better immediately to anything Dalton ever did. I can’t ignore the injury concerns with Green, and I think whether the Bengals extend him is a significant indicator of how the team feels about his health. There is also a non-zero chance that the Bengals trade Green if they can’t sign him to a long-term agreement. Right now, though, I have to rank Green somewhere, so he comes in at my WR22 and 53rd overall player. Green is essential to watch, as his ranking could move significantly in either direction, depending on the news around him.
Tyler Boyd
I just wrote a dynasty article about Boyd, so I won’t rehash his entire career. To summarize, Boyd broke out in 2018 in his third season and finished as the WR15. Boyd played well both with and without Green on the field, actually performing better with Green. Either way, Boyd’s final line of 76 receptions on 108 targets for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns impressed fantasy owners who picked Boyd up from waivers in 2018.
Then, going into 2019, the Bengals signed Boyd to a 4-year, $43 million extension. This lead us all to expect him to play in the slot to complement Green on the outside. As mentioned above, Green missed the entire 2019 season, forcing Boyd to become the top receiving target. Boyd lived up to the challenge, with a whopping 148 targets that he converted into 90 catches for 1,046 yards and five touchdowns. Boyd succeeded despite playing three games with the dumpster fire of Ryan Finley and dealing with Dalton’s inconsistent quarterback play.
Now, Boyd will play with Burrow, who excelled in college using slot receiver Justin Jefferson, a similar player to Boyd. Boyd is 25 years old, entering the prime of his career, so he could take a further step forward in 2020. Even with all that optimism, Boyd is only my WR30. I would like to emphasize that my WR19-WR31 are very close in one large tier. So, it’s not that I don’t like Boyd as a fantasy asset. I believe that any of those players would serve as a solid WR2, which is why I recommend focusing on running backs in the first few rounds and picking from the depth at wide receiver afterward. That strategy will create the most balanced and best fantasy rosters, which is always the goal during any fantasy draft.
Joe Burrow
We’ve known that Burrow would be a member of the Bengals for most of the offseason, so I wrote about him as a Bengal in his pre-draft outlook. There’s no doubt that Burrow had one of the best college seasons ever for a quarterback in 2019. He completed an insane 76.3% of his passes and had 5,671 passing yards, 60 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. Burrow displaced one of the most hyped prospects in Tua Tagovailoa as the consensus top pick, and I believe Burrow will have a solid rookie year.
However, I have to pump the brakes on trusting Burrow in redraft formats. He starts the season against the Chargers’ tough defense and then plays the Browns on the road. For that reason, I don’t want him as an early-season option, which is all I care about when drafting a late-round quarterback. Across the whole season, I think Burrow will throw the ball a lot. On the flip side, you should not be surprised if he makes some rookie mistakes and throws a bunch of interceptions. He’s my QB18, and I expect him to be in the streaming mix, just not in the first two weeks.
Dart Throws
Giovani Bernard
I think it’s clear that Bernard is the direct backup or handcuff to Mixon. While the Bengals added two running backs in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft in Trayveon Williams and Rodney Anderson, neither got any carries in 2019 behind Mixon and Bernard. Anderson suffered yet another injury and missed the entire season, and Williams was healthy but never saw playing time.
Although Bernard is the top backup and should see some work, I have no interest in Bernard in redraft formats unless Mixon decides to hold out. I don’t expect that to happen, and I believe the Bengals and Mixon will agree to a long-term deal. Unlike other top handcuffs like Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, and Chase Edmonds, I don’t think the Bengals’ running back role is valuable as a role. I think Mixon’s talent makes that role worthwhile, and Bernard would not be an RB1 if Mixon went down. Also, I believe either Williams or Anderson would see at least some work if Mixon couldn’t play. I’ll pass on Bernard in drafts.
Tee Higgins
The Bengals drafted Higgins with the 33rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. I like Higgins as a prospect, and I think he’s the long-term replacement for Green. Higgins provides a similar big-body outside presence and would complement Boyd well in the offense. However, in 2020, I only see a path for Higgins if Green can’t play or gets traded away. If Green is still on the team, Higgins is a backup, and he’s well outside of my draftable range.
John Ross
Unlike Higgins, Ross has a clear role, at least to start 2020. Ross provides a downfield, speed element that would go well with Green and Boyd. Head coach Zac Taylor comes from the Rams’ coaching tree, and if you squint hard, Ross could play the Brandin Cooks’ role in that offense. Sadly, Ross is perhaps one-third as talented as Cooks. He has shown little to nothing since he was a first-round pick back in 2017. I’ll believe it when I see it with Ross, and I suggest fantasy owners do the same.
Other Options
The Bengals have a history of using tight ends in their offense, but nobody on the team seems to want to claim that role. They drafted Drew Sample in the second round in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he did nothing in his rookie year. They still have C.J. Uzomah, but he’s never broken out in five years on the Bengals. I wouldn’t waste time with Uzomah either.
I believe that wide receiver Auden Tate is the best candidate to play the “tight end” role in the offense, as Tate is a massive 6-5, 228-pound monster. Tate had streaming relevance as a wide receiver at times in 2019, where he caught 40 of 80 targets for 575 yards and a touchdown. Tate seems buried on the Bengals’ depth chart though and will struggle to see anywhere near that volume in 2020.
The Bengals also have two backup running backs in Rodney Anderson and Trayveon Williams. Anderson profiles similarly to Mixon and Williams to Bernard. It seemed like the Bengals wanted to have a backup for each of their top backs. However, Anderson can never stay healthy, and Williams did nothing in 2019. Unless something happens to Mixon and one of these two guys shows me on-field talent, I’ll continue to ignore both of them.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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