In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Packers.
High-End Assets
Davante Adams
Outside of Michael Thomas, Davante Adams is the safest wide receiver asset in 2020 redraft formats. The Packers stunningly decided to make no significant acquisitions to their receiving weapons after 2019, despite their lack of other receivers. The Packers only signed Devin Funchess in free agency, a hugely disappointing signing that I covered here. They also drafted Jordan Love, A.J. Dillon, and Josiah Deguara with their first three draft picks. Instead of selecting offensive weapons to help quarterback Aaron Rodgers, they decided to draft a backup quarterback, a backup bruising running back with no hands, and a fullback/tight end hybrid player to help as a blocker.
Considering there has been little change, Adams is in line for another stellar season. In 2019, he missed four games with turf toe but excelled in the 12 games he played. He averaged 17.7 PPR points per game, sixth among receivers. His line of 83 receptions on 127 targets for 997 yards and five touchdowns was impressive, especially considering he wasn’t entirely healthy for a few of the games he played. Over a full season, Adams was on pace for 111 receptions, 169 targets, 1329 yards, and 6.67 touchdowns.
Adams has a track record as a target monster, as he had 169 targets in 2018, where he finished as the WR2 and first in PPR points per game among receivers. However, in 2018, he caught 13 touchdowns, so he has room for positive touchdown regression from his 2019 performance. If you want to select a receiver in the first round, Adams is a solid choice. He’s my WR2 and my seventh overall player. I believe he is the only receiver other than Thomas that’s worth passing on a running back in the first round. I think I’ll have a significant number of shares in 2020, especially if I’m drafting in the middle to the end of the first round.
Aaron Jones
In 2019, Aaron Jones had a breakout season. He took 236 carries for 1,084 yards and a whopping 16 rushing touchdowns. He also added 49 catches for 474 yards and three touchdowns. Based on these gaudy numbers, he finished as the RB2 in PPR formats, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
As I mentioned above, the Packers drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round to compete with Jones and Jamaal Williams in the backfield. I broke down Dillon’s redraft impact here. Dillon is a bruising, goal-line type of running back who should steal goal-line carries from Jones. Also, the Packers have discussed using all three running backs in a committee, which would be a nightmare for fantasy owners.
Also, the Packers lost both Adams and Williams at times in 2019. Jones had 22 of his 49 receptions in the four games that Adams missed and had his biggest game of the season when both Adams and Williams were out of the lineup. With everyone healthy and Dillon joining the backfield, I don’t think Jones has a chance of repeating as the RB2 in 2020.
Even so, Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur wants to implement a run-heavy offense, and Jones is still the starter on a high-powered offense. Therefore, I have Jones as my RB11 and 19th overall player. When drafting Jones, fantasy owners must recognize that he’s going to have up-and-down performances and will be frustratingly taken off the field for Dillon and Williams at random times. However, his upside is strong enough to keep him in the RB1 range.
Usable Contributors
Aaron Rodgers
I think my dislike for Rodgers is pretty well-known, considering he was the subject of one of my “Dead to Me” articles. I won’t do another in-depth breakdown of Rodgers here, but he’s declined in fantasy points per game each year since 2016 when he was the QB1 overall. In 2017 he missed most of the season with injuries and was sixth in points per game. Then, in 2018 he declined to ninth in points per game, before falling to 13th in 2019. His trajectory is not promising, considering that he turned 36 in December 2019.
In that article, I expected the Packers to add a significant receiving weapon early in the NFL Draft, which they didn’t even do. While I think that Rodgers is still a capable real-life quarterback, that doesn’t score fantasy points for your fantasy team. I don’t see any reason to have Rodgers as a high-end fantasy quarterback anymore, and he’s my QB11. I expect that his ADP will be much higher come draft season, as the public will see Rodgers’ name value and vault him up their boards. Rodgers begins the season at the Vikings, so he doesn’t even have a good Week 1 matchup. I’ll have no shares of Rodgers in 2020.
Dart Throws
Allen Lazard
In both 2018 and 2019, everybody chased the Packers’ WR2. In the past, the Packers under Aaron Rodgers had supported two or even three fantasy-relevant receivers. However, in the past two seasons, nobody emerged behind Adams as a useful receiver, either for the Packers or for fantasy owners.
Allen Lazard was the most recent secondary receiver to flash for the Packers. He started getting playing time in Week 6 and became a regular part of the offense in Week 7. In those 11 games, he totaled 35 receptions on 52 targets for 477 yards and three touchdowns. However, he only averaged 9.3 PPR points per game and was only WR51 during that period.
While I believe Lazard is the leader in the race for the Packers’ WR2 role, I’m not expecting him to be fantasy-relevant. The Packers also signed Funchess, who will compete for red-zone targets and still have a bunch of other receivers on the roster. I wouldn’t bother chasing Lazard in drafts, and he’s my WR60. Other options in that value range present far more upside since Adams is going to dominate targets in this offense no matter what.
A.J. Dillon
Dillon brings a nice skillset from his time at Boston College. He scored 38 touchdowns in college, so he has a nose for the end zone. However, he only caught 21 passes in his entire college career, and I expect him to add nothing as a pass-catcher. Both Jones and Williams are superior options in the passing game out of the backfield.
Therefore, Dillon is just a handcuff to Jones that presents touchdown upside. As long as Jones remains healthy, I don’t think you’ll ever be able to start Dillon in fantasy football. In 2019, Williams was the RB34 as Jones’ handcuff, but that came mostly on the back of 39 receptions and five receiving touchdowns. In this potential three-way committee, Dillon won’t be fantasy relevant and won’t even be a workhorse if Jones goes down. He’s not one of my preferred handcuffs, coming in as my RB55.
Devin Funchess
If I have no interest in Lazard, I certainly don’t have any in Funchess. He hasn’t been fantasy relevant since 2017, and I expect him to be the WR3 on this team. Funchess was a WR/TE hybrid in college and for the Panthers early in his career, so he might compete more with Jace Sternberger than with Lazard. Either way, Funchess is my WR78 and well outside of the draftable range in even the deepest leagues.
Jamaal Williams
Similar to Dillon, Williams isn’t going to be relevant in 2020 without an injury to Jones. I expect Dillon to win the backup job to Jones, but it’s possible that Williams could hold him off for 2020. Williams has never recorded more than 153 carries or 556 rushing yards in any season, and his volume has declined with each season in the league. I believe that the Packers will use Jones more in the passing game and Dillon around the goal line, phasing Williams mostly out of the offense. The only relevance he’ll have in fantasy is annoyingly coming in from time-to-time to take touches from Jones.
Jace Sternberger
The Packers drafted Sternberger in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but he didn’t see any offensive action in his rookie year. However, the Packers parted ways with Jimmy Graham after 2019, so Sternberger will be their starting receiving tight end. Unfortunately, the Packers brought in both Funchess and Deguara to split time with Sternberger, so I don’t expect Sternberger to receive a massive snap share.
Rodgers hasn’t supported a good fantasy tight end in a long time, so I’m keeping my expectations low for Sternberger. He could break out in 2020, but I’ll need to see it on the field for multiple weeks before I invest in him. It’s difficult to draft a player in redraft who’s never recorded a regular-season offensive statistic.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Vikings, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, Texans, Jets, Panthers, Browns
