In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Texans.
High-End Assets
The Texans are another one of those teams that don’t have a high-end fantasy asset. They have a decent offense, but I don’t expect them to funnel enough volume into any player to have that player in this section. Let’s move into the usable contributors.
Usable Contributors
David Johnson
Ugh, it’s David Johnson. If you read my “Dead to Me” article on him, you’ll know that I hate Johnson in redraft. He lost his starting job to Kenyan Drake in 2019 and missed the entire 2017 season. In 2018, he finished as the RB9, with an inefficient season, despite massive volume. He hasn’t been a star real-life running back since his RB1 overall season in 2016.
After 2019, the Cardinals traded Johnson to the Texans in a deal that included star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson is now the starting running back in a Deshaun Watson led offense, so he should have an opportunity to succeed. In that same article, I predicted that Johnson would have a draft price as a high-end RB2. I also expected the Texans to add a two-down back to complement Johnson, who excels as a pass-catcher. The Texans didn’t add anyone at running back, so they currently have only Duke Johnson to spell David Johnson.
I think Bill O’Brien will be desperate to prove that Johnson was worth trading away Hopkins and will use him as a three-down back, whether Johnson has anything left or not. Let’s not forget that O’Brien handed Carlos Hyde 245 carries in 2019 and that Hyde finished as the RB30. I still think Johnson has more left in the tank than Hyde, although perhaps not by as much as many think. Therefore, David Johnson ranks as my RB22 for redraft this season.
Brandin Cooks
After trading Hopkins to the Cardinals, the Texans decided to bring in Cooks to fill the void as their top receiver. Given that the Texans gave up a second-round pick for Cooks, they will undoubtedly use him in the offense, although Cooks is an entirely different type of receiver to Hopkins. Cooks usually plays in a deep role, similar to the Texans’ other top receiver, Will Fuller.
I know that Watson is a talented quarterback and has the potential to support multiple fantasy weapons. The issue is that I don’t like any particular one of the Texans’ receiving options. Cooks struggled with concussions in 2019 and had a down season with only 583 receiving yards. I can’t help being scared by Cooks’ five documented concussions, and I can’t rely on him in redraft for 2020. He, therefore, comes in as my WR32.
I expect him to exceed that mark if he plays 16 games, but I don’t feel comfortable ranking him assuming that. His upside is a borderline WR1 if he returns to form, though. He recorded four straight seasons with 1,082 or more receiving yards from 2015-2018, finishing as the WR13, WR10, WR15, and WR13 in those four years.
Will Fuller
Fuller is a very similar type of player to Cooks in a lot of ways. He plays in a deep, downfield role and also has significant injury concerns. Unlike Cooks, who, despite all the concussions, has missed only a few games, Fuller is a different story. Fuller has only played 42 of 64 games in his NFL career and hasn’t played more than 11 games since his rookie year.
Even in 2019, Fuller recorded only 670 receiving yards in 11 games and caught only 49 passes. His career average of 3.7 receptions per game is uninspiring, especially in a PPR format. I think Fuller is better saved for a best-ball format since he can’t stay healthy and has left multiple games early with injuries. On the off chance he does avoid injuries, I have Fuller ranked as my WR36, just behind Cooks. If both are healthy, I think fantasy owners will struggle to pick between the two players. I think you can do better looking elsewhere.
Deshaun Watson
I think the hate on Watson has gone a bit too far. Even though he lost his best receiver in Hopkins, we can’t forget that Watson has been a top-tier fantasy quarterback for his entire career in the NFL. In his seven games as a rookie in 2017, he averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game, by far the best in the league. Then in 2018, he played a full season, finishing as the QB4 overall and fourth in fantasy points per game with 20.7.
He followed those stellar performances with an excellent 2019. In 15 games, he finished as the QB5 and second in fantasy points per game. Watson has always been excellent as a fantasy quarterback, and I don’t expect that to change without Hopkins. Before the trade, I ranked Watson as my QB3, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. After the dust settled, Watson still came in as my QB5, behind Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott.
Since I recommend waiting on quarterback, Watson is only my 85th overall player, or just at the start of the eighth round. I think that based on name recognition Watson won’t make it there, so I’ll have no shares in 2020. However, I think he’ll be the cheapest of the top tier quarterbacks and could represent a value in drafts if he falls further.
Dart Throws
Duke Johnson
I don’t understand precisely what Duke Johnson’s role will be in 2020. In 2019, the Texans gave up a third-round pick to acquire Johnson from the Browns. Johnson formed a sensible committee with Carlos Hyde, who was a two-down plodder compared to Johnson’s receiving skills. Johnson had 83 carries to Hyde’s 245, but Johnson excelled as a receiver, catching 44 of 62 targets for 410 yards and three touchdowns. For comparison, Hyde only had 16 targets and 10 receptions all season.
However, David Johnson is also known for his receiving skills, even more than Duke. They don’t complement each other at all, so I expect Duke mostly to be a backup. The Texans don’t even heavily target their running backs, so I doubt they’ll use two-back sets or anything along those lines. In theory, the Texans could cut Duke before the season and save $4.1 million in cap space. It would make far more sense to have a grinder as David Johnson’s backup, not a satellite back.
If David Johnson goes down, though, I guess Duke would step into a significant role, considering there’s nobody else on the Texans’ depth chart. With that said, I don’t think the backfield is complete yet, so it’s a bit early to speculate about Duke’s value as a handcuff. As things stand now, Duke is my RB51.
Randall Cobb
While the Texans made many offseason moves that made no sense, their free-agent signing of Cobb might be among the worst. They gave Cobb a 3-year, $27 million contract with $18 million guaranteed. I can’t imagine any other team was near their offer, and I think they vastly overpaid for Cobb.
This criticism is not to say that Cobb was terrible in 2019. He played 15 games for the Cowboys, recording 55 receptions on 83 targets for 828 yards and three touchdowns. That performance was good for the WR44. Even though Cobb finished there in 2019, I don’t think he’s going to finish anywhere near there in 2020. The Texans’ offense won’t be as high-powered as the Cowboys, and Cobb will turn 30 in August.
Based on his contract, Cobb is a definite starter. Since he’s a slot-only option at this stage in his career, the Texans must intend to run three-wide base sets with Cooks, Fuller, and Cobb as their starters. I think that Cobb will only take away volume from the other two receivers and won’t be relevant in fantasy himself. He’s my WR71 for 2020, so well outside of the draftable range. Go elsewhere if you want a safe, cheap option.
Kenny Stills
Based on the Texans’ offseason moves, Cooks, Fuller, and Cobb are their three starting receivers, so Stills is purely depth. To be honest, I’m surprised Stills is still on the team as the Texans can cut him and save $7 million against the cap. They drafted Isaiah Coulter in the fifth round and still have Keke Coutee as depth in the slot. If Stills makes the team, he’s one injury to Cooks or Fuller away from relevance, but he’s not worth drafting. He’s my WR79, and I’m not interested in him at all.
The Tight Ends
I’ll address the tight end group as a group since there isn’t one single player that’s stood out over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, Jordan Akins and Darren Fells split the starting role almost evenly. Akins had 36 receptions on 55 targets for 418 yards and two touchdowns while Fells had 34 catches on 48 targets for 341 yards and seven touchdowns.
However, both 2018 sixth-rounder Jordan Thomas’, and 2019 third-rounder Kahale Warring’s 2019 seasons were lost to injuries. All four players are healthy going into 2020, although I doubt all four make the team. Thomas would be the odd man out in my view, as they just signed Fells to an extension, and Akins and Warring have superior draft capital.
With Cobb coming into the offense, the Texans will likely use single tight end sets alongside three receivers in 2020. Akins and Fells combined for over 100 targets in 2019, so if any player consolidates the role, that player could be fantasy-relevant. I don’t expect that to happen though, so you can probably ignore this group altogether in redraft.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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