Redraft Team Focus: Jaguars

In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. 

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this is another one of those fantasy black holes. It’s time to look at the unfortunate situation that is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

High-End Assets

Leonard Fournette

As much as this pains me to say, I still have to put Leonard Fournette in the high-end assets tier. I’ve made no secret that I hate Fournette in all fantasy formats, and that includes redraft. However, he will get massive volume, like he’s had in his three NFL seasons so far.

Rushing Stats:

Receiving Stats:

As you can see, Fournette has been inefficient, despite his high touch totals. In three seasons, he’s never managed more than 4.3 YPC. However, despite his inefficiencies, he’s averaged an RB1 performance every single season he’s been in the NFL.

While the Jaguars have had other running backs on the team throughout Fournette’s tenure, they have never been serious competition for his role. In 2017, he shared touches with Chris Ivory and in 2018 with T.J. Yeldon. Each of them had about 100 carries, with Yeldon taking the majority of passing-game work. But in both cases, Fournette was the clear workhorse and at least a contributor on third-downs.

However, in 2019, Fournette had the least competition of all. The Jaguars moved on from Yeldon, allowing Fournette to dominate both carries and targets out of the backfield. Rookie Ryquell Armstead had 35 carries and 24 targets, but Fournette rarely came off the field. He finished third on the team in targets, behind D.J. Chark’s 118 and Dede Westbrook’s 101. In my opinion, though, Fournette’s high target volume was not by design and resulted from the complete void of weapons in the Jaguars’ offense.

Going into 2020, Fournette’s fantasy value is a painfully interesting puzzle. On one hand, he only scored three total touchdowns on 265 carries and 76 receptions in 2019. Since the Jaguars scored 27 touchdowns as a team and only three came on the ground, Fournette is definitely in line for positive touchdown regression.

Unfortunately, that is the only positive indicator for Fournette. The Jaguars confirmed that they tried to trade Fournette away both throughout the offseason and during the NFL Draft. While they failed to trade him, they were ready to move on from him entirely. They also declined his 2021 fifth-year option, so this is undoubtedly Fournette’s last year in Jacksonville. While it doesn’t necessarily affect his workload this year, the Jaguars have no incentive to stick with Fournette if he continues to struggle.

Also, the Jaguars drafted wide receiver Laviska Shenault in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. While Shenault is a receiver, he profiles as a wildcat player and got backfield touches in college, both on the ground and through the air. Also, the team signed running back Chris Thompson, who was the pass-catching back for new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden when they worked together in Washington. Therefore, the Jaguars don’t intend to give Fournette 100 targets again, and his 48 targets from his rookie year are a reasonable estimate.

Overall, Fournette is my RB16 and 32nd overall player in my redraft rankings. He’s a boring high-end RB2 with a low-ceiling. I think that some people will still expect him to get the same volume as in 2019 and improve his efficiency. I don’t want any part of a player that his team tried to ship out, so I’m 100% out on Fournette in 2020.

Usable Contributors

DJ Chark

The Jaguars drafted DJ Chark in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. While he did little to nothing as a rookie, he broke out in 2019 in his second year. He led the Jaguars WRs in all receiving categories, with 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as the WR17. Chark scored 15.1 PPR points per game, 19th among wide receivers.

In my early-season stars article, I focused on Chark and his split between the first and second half of the 2019 season. His production plummeted later in the season, putting him outside the top 40 receivers during the final seven games. This decline in production occurred despite similar target numbers. I believe that opposing defense finally keyed in on Chark as the top target over teammate Dede Westbrook. It’s possible that Chark just couldn’t win against better coverage, which is undoubtedly coming again in 2020.

Going into 2020, Chark is the clear number one target for the Jaguars. Unfortunately, I expect the Jaguars’ offense to be an absolute dumpster fire, which will kill the ceiling of all their fantasy options. Because of that, I only have Chark as my WR28, and I doubt he’ll last that long in any of my drafts. I’ll look at alternative options like T.Y. Hilton, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett instead of picking Chark for my redraft teams.

Dart Throws

Ryquell Armstead

I don’t have much interest in Armstead in 2020. He’s Fournette’s handcuff, but the Jaguars also have Shenault and Thompson to take passing-game work. Armstead also didn’t show enough in 2019 to demonstrate that he’s a skilled running back in the NFL. There’s no upside in drafting Armstead, so I won’t do that in 2020 redraft leagues. He’s my RB53.

Gardner Minshew

Similar to almost all quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew has a shot at fantasy-relevance in 2020. In 2019, he played 14 games, finishing as the QB19 and 18th in fantasy points per game. He was also decent as a real-life quarterback, with 3,270 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Minshew also added value with his legs, rushing 67 times for 344 yards, although he didn’t score any rushing touchdowns.

Minshew’s rushing upside makes him a streamer in good matchups in 2020. He also starts with a Week 1 game at home against the Colts, where the Jaguars could easily fall behind and need to throw the ball. However, I don’t see him as a great overall option; he’s only the QB22 in my rankings. I’ll undoubtedly write about him in my streamers column in 2020, though.

Laviska Shenault

As I discussed earlier, the Jaguars took Shenault in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. While I expect Shenault to see time all over the field and love him in dynasty formats, I don’t want any part of him in redraft. He’s going to take time to develop into an NFL player and has a history of injuries that could slow his progression. I have Shenault as my WR69, and I’ll stay away from him until I see something on an NFL field. If that happens, I’ll look for him on waivers.

Dede Westbrook

Similar to Shenault, I don’t think the Jaguars’ offense can support additional offensive weapons beyond Fournette and Chark. In both 2018 and 2019, Westbrook had exactly 101 targets and 66 receptions. Despite that high volume, Westbrook never recorded more than 717 yards and five touchdowns and never finished higher than WR33. 

Chark is now the clear number one receiver, and Westbrook is now potentially the third receiver behind Chark and Shenault. Chris Conley also had 90 targets in 2019, so Westbrook faces an uphill battle to replicate his 2018 and 2019 numbers. He’s my WR74 and entirely off my redraft radar unless the Jaguars’ offense has a miraculous turnaround.

Everyone Else

The Jaguars have a few other players on the roster that could get some offensive touches. Running back Chris Thompson has been a nice PPR option when he manages to avoid injuries and stay on the field. Considering that he’s almost 30 years old and has missed at least five games in each of the past three seasons, I wouldn’t count on that. Thompson is going to be a thorn in Fournette’s side but not a fantasy asset in his own right.

Also, the Jaguars have good depth at wide receiver, with Conley, Keelan Cole, and fifth-round rookie Collin Johnson on the roster. Both Conley and Cole have had fantasy relevance at times, especially Cole, in 2017. Similar to Thompson, these players are only going to muddy the waters for the higher options, not find your fantasy lineups. They’re all worth ignoring.

At tight end, the Jaguars have Tyler Eifert, Josh Oliver, and James O’Shaughnessy. Oddly, O’Shaughnessy saw the most relevance in 2019, where he was the TE13 through the first five games. However, Eifert signed a contract with $3.25 million guaranteed in 2020, and Oliver was a third-round pick in 2019, so I’d bet on both of them over O’Shaughnessy. Unfortunately, Eifert can never stay healthy, and Oliver missed almost all his rookie year with injuries. Again, I’d avoid all of these players until someone proves themselves on the field.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Vikings, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, Texans, Jets, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Broncos, Redskins, Rams