Redraft Team Focus: Los Angeles Rams

In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Rams.

High-End Assets

Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp is a bit of an enigma going into 2020. In 2019, he finished as the WR4 in PPR formats and averaged 16.9 PPR points per game, seventh among wide receivers. Coming off an ACL injury in 2018, Kupp played all 16 games and had 94 receptions on 134 targets for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished just behind Robert Woods in targets and led the Rams in yards, receptions, and touchdowns.

However, from Weeks 13-17, the Rams changed their entire offense. Through Week 12, Kupp played 85% or more of the offensive snaps in all but two games. He was an integral part of the offense and a clear full-time player in the Rams’ 3WR base formation. After Week 12, Kupp’s snap percentage plummeted. He played 72% or less of the snaps in four of the final five games and even played only 28% of snaps in Week 14, as the Rams moved toward a 2WR, 2TE base offense. Let’s look at Kupp’s fantasy stats side-by-side between the two periods.

As you can see, Kupp’s yards, targets, and receptions declined in Weeks 13-17, although touchdowns propped up his fantasy points. The question is: which role will Kupp have in 2020?

I believe that the real answer lies somewhere in between. The Rams traded away Brandin Cooks to the Texans and didn’t make a significant addition at the wide receiver position. While they selected Van Jefferson in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, I don’t expect Jefferson to make an immediate impact. They also have Josh Reynolds on the roster, but he’s played consistently behind both Kupp and Woods since 2017. There’s no reason to assume that changes in 2020.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Rams return to using three receivers as their base formation. They preferred to have tight end Tyler Higbee as an every-down player down the stretch, with Gerald Everett as a second tight end on passing downs and Johnny Mundt as a blocking tight end on rushing downs. Therefore, Kupp will also need to succeed equally on the outside, not mostly in the slot where he played 65.5% of his 2019 snaps. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Kupp’s role, I rank him as my WR16. I don’t see him repeating his WR1 numbers from 2019, but he’s incredibly talented and won’t fade away. Draft him as a solid WR2.

Robert Woods

Unlike Kupp, there is little uncertainty about Woods’ role in the Rams’ offense. Since joining the Rams in 2017, Woods has been one of the Rams’ outside wide receivers. He rarely comes off the field, playing 93% or more snaps in 12 of 15 games he played in 2019. In 2019, he finished with 90 receptions on 139 targets for 1,134 yards, an almost identical line to Kupp’s. However, Woods only scored two touchdowns compared to Kupp’s 10.

Given that he had so many targets, Woods will score more touchdowns in 2020. While Woods has never scored more than six touchdowns in any season, he was the WR14 in 2019 with only two. Positive touchdown regression is virtually inevitable for Woods if he comes anywhere near his receptions and target totals from 2019.

With all that considered, my ranking of Woods as WR17 might seem a bit too low. The reason Woods is so low is that I don’t believe he has the same upside as some of the other receivers in his range. Woods’ upside is a low-end WR1, whereas players just above him like Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and Kupp himself have shown more upside in the past. I would argue that Woods is as safe as they come, though, and he’s one of my favorite WR2s in redraft formats.

Usable Contributors

Cam Akers

Unfortunately, we’re back to uncertainty with Akers. After releasing the previous starter Todd Gurley in the offseason, the Rams drafted Akers with the 52nd overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Akers joins a backfield with 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson and longtime depth piece Malcolm Brown.

Akers excelled at Florida State, which I already explored in a pre-draft breakdown article. He showed upside on both early and passing downs and performed well at the NFL Combine. I predicted he would go in the third round, so he exceeded my expectations with his draft capital. Then, in my second-round redraft breakdown, I said that Akers would likely be a committee back at first, sharing touches with Henderson and Brown. Additionally, Akers’ usage would likely frustrate fantasy owners.

Right after the NFL Draft, I expected to rank Akers around RB18-20. However, after revising my rankings, Akers came in at my RB24 and as my 53rd overall player. I have too many doubts about Akers’ volume to rank him any higher, and players like Chris Carson, David Johnson, James Conner, and David Montgomery came out in front of Akers. Even with my ranking coming in lower than I thought at first, I’ve noticed that I’m still getting Akers in mock drafts. I think I’m higher on him than most, even at RB24. While a lot could change between now and August, I expect to have Akers as my RB3 on a lot of my redraft teams. 

Tyler Higbee

Above, I discussed how Kupp’s role changed from Weeks 1-12 to Weeks 13-17. While Kupp’s role did change, that was not the real story of those five games. In those five weeks, Higbee rose like a phoenix, after having contributed nothing for fantasy owners in his almost four prior years in the NFL.

To give a comparison, TE1 overall Travis Kelce averaged 15.9 fantasy PPG in 2019. Since 2001, no tight end has ever averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game, so there’s simply no way that Higbee will repeat these numbers over an entire season. While I think he looked great in these five games, I don’t believe that Higbee suddenly became the best receiving tight end ever.

With that said, I think Higbee presents an extreme upside for fantasy owners. Even with only five usable games, Higbee still finished as the TE8 in 2019. I expect the Rams to continue using Higbee as an every-down player, whether they play 3WR or 2WR base formations. Unlike their other tight ends, Higbee can do it all, excelling as both a receiver and a blocker. There is no reason why the Rams would take Higbee off the field, no matter what play they’re running.

Higbee is my TE6 and my 77th overall player, in a tier just ahead of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram. At that price, I’m willing to take a risk on Higbee since I’m not passing on a starter at running back or wide receiver to select him. He could be the TE1 overall in 2020, so he has enough upside baked into his draft cost. While I’m trying to get Kelce or George Kittle in most of my drafts, I’ll almost certainly pass on the group of Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller based on their inflated cost. Therefore, I think I could end up with Higbee on quite a few of my teams.

Darrell Henderson

I don’t have high expectations for Henderson in 2020. Even though the Rams picked him in the third round in 2019, he barely got on the field. He had only 39 carries for 147 yards, getting fewer touches than Malcolm Brown. Also, Henderson caught only four passes in all of 2019. Considering that his receiving ability was a huge selling point coming out of Memphis, that was probably the biggest disappointment of his 2019 season.

Coming into 2020, I do think that Henderson will have a role on the team. However, Akers is the starter, and Henderson is only a handcuff that could see some third-down work. He’s my RB42, but I don’t want to draft him. Even if Akers goes down, I don’t think Henderson could be a real workhorse back, so he has little upside. I’ll just pass on him in 2020 redraft leagues.

Jared Goff

I still have plenty of hope for Jared Goff as a fantasy quarterback in 2020. He finished as the QB12, QB7, and QB13, respectively, from 2017-2019. Most notably, he threw for 4,638 yards in 2019 but only had 22 touchdowns. While he did lose Brandin Cooks as a weapon, he will now have a full season of Higbee in the offense.

Goff is my QB17. He doesn’t run the ball much, so he doesn’t have as much upside as players like Ryan Tannehill and Daniel Jones, who come in ahead of Goff in his value tier. However, his opening season schedule isn’t bad, starting with Dallas at home, followed by the Eagles on the road. I think he’ll be usable in each of those games, especially Week 1, which will likely be a shootout. Therefore, I’m fine drafting him if I punted the quarterback position, and I’m looking for an early-season streamer.

Dart Throws

Malcolm Brown

If Henderson is as bad as he showed in 2019, it’s possible that Brown is Akers’ real handcuff. He had 69 carries for 255 yards and five touchdowns in limited work. In Week 6 against the 49ers, Gurley missed the game, and Brown got the start. While Brown ran ahead of Henderson, the 49ers’ defense shut the Rams down, limiting Brown to 11 carries for 40 yards. Outside of that one game, Brown had a small role for the rest of the season. Brown is just a flier and needs an injury to have relevance. He’s probably not worth drafting outside of the deepest leagues.

Other Receiving Options

To me, the Rams have a clear top-three in the receiving game: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee. In the past, they supported three wide receivers and little else, and now, I think it’ll be those three players and little else. Josh Reynolds has been there for three years and has never done much. Van Jefferson is just a rookie and more of a long-term dynasty stash. I do like him possibly to replace Kupp or Woods in 2021, but not for this year. Gerald Everett flashed before Higbee in 2019, but the Rams preferred Higbee since he’s a complete tight end. Everett is an excellent receiver, but his poor blocking could keep him off the field. If Higbee goes down, though, I’d look for Everett on the waiver wire. Overall, there’s a lot here for dynasty formats, but nobody worth drafting in redraft.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

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