I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Colts.
High-End Assets
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor barely makes the cut as a high-end asset. The Colts drafted him with the 41st overall pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, a substantial investment for a running back in today’s NFL. Taylor joins a backfield that includes the former starter Marlon Mack and third-down back Nyheim Hines.
I broke down Taylor in the pre-draft process, where I emphasized that Taylor is a workhorse back. He had 299 or more carries in each of his three college seasons, which is unbelievable for a college running back. In his first two college seasons at Wisconsin, he excelled as a rusher but didn’t contribute much in the passing game. However, he broke out as a receiver in his third year, catching 26 passes and five receiving touchdowns.
As a prospect, I believed that Taylor would immediately push aside any existing running backs on his new team, outside of potentially splitting some work with a third-down back. While Mack is a decent player, he’s not even half as talented as Taylor. Taylor will win this job out of camp, relegating Mack to spot duty.
In 2019, Mack had 247 carries with 100 carries split between backups Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins. I think Taylor gets that 247-carry role, and Mack gets around 100. New quarterback Philip Rivers also loves to use receiving backs, so there’s still room for Hines to have his 52 carries and 44 receptions from 2019.
If Taylor steps directly into Mack’s role from 2019, he should do far more with those touches than Mack did. The Colts’ offensive line is one of the best in the league, and Taylor was my favorite running back prospect in this draft. Since Taylor comes with some uncertainty, I have him as my RB19 and 36th overall player. I know it’s risky to take a player in a crowded backfield with such a premium pick, but I think fantasy owners won’t regret it. I wouldn’t be stunned if Taylor finishes as a top-5 running back in 2020.
Usable Contributors
T.Y. Hilton
T.Y. Hilton is the top receiver on the Colts in 2020, despite 2019 second-round pick Parris Campbell and 2020 34th overall pick Michael Pittman. In 2019, Hilton struggled through an injury-plagued season, although he still finished third in targets with 68 and led the team with 45 receptions. Therefore, his WR57 finish from 2019 doesn’t tell the full story, although he did only finish 34th in fantasy PPR among wide receivers.
Even though the Colts have a new quarterback in Rivers, he can’t be a downgrade from Jacoby Brissett’s 2019 season. Brissett threw for 2,942 yards in 15 games, which is a terrible passing output for an NFL starting quarterback. In comparison, Rivers has thrown over 4,000 yards in every season since 2008 outside of one down year in 2012. When Hilton last had a competent quarterback in 2018, he was the WR14 with 76 catches for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns in only 14 games.
Overall, I think the truth with Hilton lies between his WR14 finish from 2018 and his 34th rank in fantasy PPG in 2019. Rivers is a better quarterback than Brissett but not nearly as good at this point in his career as 2018 starter Andrew Luck. Also, Hilton turned 30 years old in November of 2019, so he’s likely on the downside of his career. Therefore, Hilton comes in as my WR27 and 58th overall player. He’s a nice, high-upside WR3, but I can’t trust him as my WR2 in 2020.
Marlon Mack
Mack comes as part of the “usable assets” tier due to the lack of fantasy-relevant running backs, but let’s be clear: I don’t expect him to have much viability in 2020. I buried Marlon Mack right after the NFL Draft as part of my “Dead to Me” series. Given what I said about Taylor above, I stand by that stance now. Mack will fight for scraps behind Taylor on the ground and will also compete with Hines for some third-down work. Even though Mack had pass-catching in his college profile, the Colts have never deployed him in that role so far in his NFL career.
As Taylor is a superior rusher and the Colts prefer Hines as a third-down back, there is no place for Mack in this offense. He’s a good handcuff in fantasy, as the Colts have a solid rushing attack. However, his lack of a three-down upside puts him behind some other handcuffs like Tony Pollard or Chase Edmonds. Mack will probably get a bit extra early-down work for the first few games while Taylor gets acclimated, but that doesn’t make me want to draft him in redraft. He’s my RB44, and I don’t plan on having him on any of my teams.
Philip Rivers
Like most quarterbacks, Rivers falls into the massive usable contributors’ tier. As I discussed above, Rivers has thrown for over 4,000 yards almost every season, and I don’t expect that to change now. However, Rivers provides no value as a rusher, so he doesn’t have the same fantasy floor, like many other younger quarterbacks in fantasy football.
In 2019, Rivers showed signs of decline, throwing 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions and completing only 66.0% of his passes, finishing as the QB18. He did throw for 4,615 yards, his highest total since 2015. Rivers is also extremely durable, having never missed a game since he took over as a starter in 2006.
Unfortunately, for fantasy football, durability doesn’t matter at quarterback, as good fantasy owners stream the position week-to-week. Rivers starts the season at the Jaguars and against the Vikings, so I probably won’t draft him as an early-season streamer. He’s my QB21.
Dart Throws
Michael Pittman
The Colts added Pittman in the second round, expecting him immediately to start on the outside opposite Hilton. While I love Pittman as a prospect, I’m not sure he’s going to make an impact in his rookie year. In my opinion, Pittman is the long-term replacement for Hilton as the Colts’ top receiver, whose contract expires after 2020.
Unfortunately, I still think Hilton is the clear number one option for the Colts in 2020. Outside of Hilton, I think their offense will revolve around the running game and split targets among the rest of the receiving options. Therefore, I don’t have any confidence in the players outside of Hilton, especially with a new quarterback in Rivers and a shortened offseason because of the coronavirus pandemic. Pittman is my WR63, and he’ll need to show it on the field before I add him to my team. I’ll look for him on waivers, not during the draft.
Nyheim Hines
We all know how Rivers used pass-catching Austin Ekeler during the last few years for the Chargers. In 2019, Ekeler caught 92 of 108 targets from Rivers and finished as an RB1. Even Melvin Gordon caught 40 or more passes in every season from 2016-2019. Therefore, I think it’s clear that Rivers has a particular propensity to throw to the running back, and those high numbers weren’t just because of Ekeler.
As for Hines, I don’t think he’s that talented, and I believe he offers less to the team as a running back than both Taylor and Mack. I think Hines will continue to carve out a small role as the third-down back, but that’s it. Hines declined from 85 carries in 2018 to 52 in 2019, and I think that goes down even more in 2020. Hines also lost targets and receptions in 2019 compared to 2018. Because of these trends, Hines is a low-upside, PPR-only option that I don’t want to draft because of his lack of upside. He’s my RB50.
Jack Doyle
Jack Doyle had a relatively mediocre 2019 season. Despite playing all 16 games, he only managed 43 receptions on 72 targets for 448 yards and four touchdowns. He turned 30 years old in May, so he’s on the back end of the prime of his career, not an improving player. Some people think that Rivers will suddenly revitalize Doyle’s fantasy value, but I don’t see it. The Colts now have a solid 3WR set in Hilton, Pittman, and Campbell, which I believe will be their base offense. Doyle won’t be as crucial to the offense, and I don’t want to draft him. He’s my TE20, and I’d far prefer to take a shot on upside options like Jonnu Smith, Blake Jarwin, or Ian Thomas instead of Doyle.
Parris Campbell
Similar to Pittman, I think Campbell could emerge as the second receiving option for the Colts. That’s precisely the problem, as I don’t see a significant difference between the two players in potential fantasy value or upside. Both players have second-round draft capital, and I liked both players as draft prospects. Rivers has used slot receivers like Campbell in the past, most notably Keenan Allen. Even so, I’ll take a shot elsewhere where there’s more clarity and avoid Campbell, who’s my WR67.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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