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Nobody has a perfect hit rate in fantasy, and anyone who claims they do is lying. At DFF, we believe being transparent about our misses is important. It’s the first step in learning from mistakes and improving our process.
That’s why, in today’s article, I’ll be diving into my early-season misses and the lessons I’ve learned (if any) through a dynasty lens. Dynasty calls for more patience than redraft; just because someone has failed to produce through three weeks or dominated early doesn’t mean they’ll be the same player for years to come. So let’s figure out whether it’s time to hit the panic button.
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)
I’ve been part of the Loveland hive since his early days at Michigan. He displays the play strength to play in-line, has velcro hands, and moves like a wide receiver. There’s a reason I have 33% Loveland ownership across all my fantasy leagues; I took him over Tyler Warren in every single rookie draft I was in last year.
Well, it’s been a nightmare start to the season for the former Wolverine, sitting with only one reception in two games. His 2026 per-route numbers include a 6.3% target rate and 0.05 yards per route run. (How is that even possible?) To everyone’s surprise, Kalif Raymond is leading the charge at wide receiver, and HC Ben Johnson is even drawing up plays for Sam Rousch. Odd.
While my Loveland teams have gotten off to a slow start, I’m not panicking yet. Loveland is the TE4 overall in snap rate and TE6 in route participation. He’s a full-time player with real receiving skills, and the big games are coming. I’ve dropped Loveland a bit in my overall dynasty ranks, but he does remain as my TE3 overall.
Jalen Coker (WR – CAR)
I specifically remember saying in our DFF Discord this offseason that Jalen Coker was a JAG, and that it was tough to envision a scenario where your team is a true contender and Coker is an every-week starter. Boy was I wrong. Shout-out to DFF analyst @Paul_Ryan15, who was bullish on Coker since this summer.
In Coker’s last four games (dating back to last year), he’s averaging 9 targets, 8 receptions, 85 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown per game. That’s about 22 PPR points per game. Bryce Young appears to be the real deal, and this passing offense is consolidated between two guys: Coker and Tetairoa McMillan.
I’ve been trying to buy Coker recently, but nobody is selling. And frankly, I don’t blame them. A four-game sample isn’t massive, but it also suggests this is no fluke. He’s moved up to my WR31 overall in dynasty. I’m not sure there was a major lesson to be learned here, other than that a clear top-two option in an offense trending upwards deserved more of my attention, even if Coker was a UDFA and a modest producer in the past. I’ll be interested to see how this passing offense fares against some better defense as the season progresses.
Welcome back to the fourth edition of the Devy Notebook 2026. We are inching closer to conference play, which will be the true test for most devy players that we care about, but that doesn’t mean that there weren’t some notes from this weekend’s games. Let’s see who made an impression this week.
Darian Mensah’s accuracy was truly on display this week. He completed 30/34 passes for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. He will be one of the most difficult evaluations this season because only one defense will truly test Miami before the playoffs, and it won’t happen until November 7th against Notre Dame. If you have been following along with the Devy Notebook since its inception, you know that we have been on Darian Mensah since his time at Duke. It seems more and more likely that our deep shot from a couple of years ago becomes a first-round pick next spring.
The world was touting Jalen Lott. The devy community has been waiting for Gatlin Bair. But absolutely no one was expecting Oregon freshman Messiah Hampton to be a budding star. He caught 6 balls for 71 yards and two touchdowns this weekend against Portland State, which was 3 more catches and 46 more yards than Lott and Bair combined. It’s hard to make any recommendations off of one game against lower competition, but any freshman getting this type of playing time for a top-tier team should be stashed.
Darius Taylor did not play this week, and yet again he finds himself frequently on the injury report. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again: if your body cannot hold up against college competition, how can we ever expect it to hold up against the athletes in the NFL? If you own any Taylor shares, my best advice is to get out while you still can.
We saw glimpses of the old Justice Haynes this weekend against Mercer as he rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Two average showings against Colorado and Tennessee in prior weeks left us underwhelmed and prevented him from getting his name in the recent first-round mock draft from DFF. We need to see more against better competition as conference play begins.
Many predicted a breakout season for Clemson running back Gideon Davidson this season. He had his best game of the year against UNC this past weekend, rushing for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. If you’re box score scouting, this line is encouraging. But we aren’t here for the box score. There were multiple runs that showed poor vision, slow feet, and poor lateral cutting ability. He is the type of runner that instills confidence in his opponents, not the other way around.
Week 4 is where I really want to start separating the player from the weekly situation. We have enough games now to know who is earning touches, who is losing them, and which early-season breakouts might actually be real. That does not mean we blindly follow the box score.
A player can still be someone I like long term and belong on the bench this week. On the other side, an emerging player does not need to be a household name yet if the role tells us it is time to trust him. That is what we are looking for this week.
As always, every C2C league is different. Your scoring, lineup requirements, and roster can change a close decision.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
Starts
Ryan Browne, Purdue at Notre Dame
This is exactly the type of Start I want for this article. Browne has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of Purdue’s first 3 games and enters Week 4 with 1,024 passing yards, 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Now we get the real test.
Notre Dame has been legitimately good defensively, so I am not calling this an easy matchup. What I am betting on is Purdue’s passing game. They are averaging 366.7 passing yards per game, and Browne has completed 73.3 percent of his passes through 3 weeks.
Purdue’s defense has also helped create game scripts where Browne has to keep throwing. So I am not sitting him just because Notre Dame is on the other side. Purdue has shown me enough through 3 games to trust the volume until somebody proves we should not.
Ethan Grunkemeyer, Virginia Tech at Boston College
Grunkemeyer is starting to become one of those players where the role is getting more interesting before everybody completely catches up. Virginia Tech has put a lot on his plate in James Franklin’s offense, and I like that for C2C.
Boston College gives us enough resistance that this is not some automatic matchup call, but I am not running away from the volume either. This is where I want to get ahead of the point where Grunkemeyer becomes an obvious weekly option.
Sits
Hauss Hejny, Colorado State at UTSA
The production says Start. The hamstring says Sit. Hejny has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 619 yards, 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception while adding 128 rushing yards and another touchdown.
That is exactly the type of production we want from our campus quarterback. The problem is that he is now a game time decision with a hamstring injury.
His mobility is part of what makes him valuable, so even if he is active, I do not want to find out after kickoff that Colorado State is protecting him or limiting what he can do with his legs. This one hurts because I like the player and the production. I just do not like the risk this week.
Tait Reynolds, Clemson at California
Tait Reynolds is still Clemson’s starting quarterback. Christopher Vizzina being probable does not change that.
What it does change is how comfortable I am with the weekly floor. Clemson’s offense has not been consistent enough for me to completely ignore the possibility that Vizzina gets involved if things are not going well Friday night.
Reynolds still has the long-term talent I like, but this is a weekly campus decision. I need more stability before I trust him in the lineup.
Trending
Last Week In Fantasy: Week 2
Week 2 was dominated by injuries, and unfortunately, that comes with the territory. But with Week 3 just a day away (or already here, depending on when this finds you), let’s dig into some Week 2 stats and see if we can find an edge on our leaguemates.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. has a combined four targets through two games and has scored fewer than five fantasy points. Among 103 receivers with 25 or more routes, he ranks 100th in target rate. I’m sitting Harrison until further notice.
Stash! Really, I’d be selling low at this point, but his price is too low for what he could be if he ever reaches his potential.
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London must have Drake London on his fantasy team, because he was not happy on Sunday. Just ask the fan he got into it with. Michael Penix Jr. takes over the offense this week, and things can only go up from here. In 2025, with Penix at QB, Bijan Robinson averaged 22.7 PPG, London averaged 19.5 PPG, and Kyle Pitts averaged 13 PPG. New coaching staff, sure, but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere.
Buy Atlanta players before they blow up.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews has six or more targets in back-to-back games, and with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar gone, the tight end room is all his. Zay Flowers already missed Week 2 and could miss again this week. Rashod Bateman is Andrews’ only real competition for targets, and Andrews will continue to eat.
Buy Andrews in every format if you’re contending.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen looks like he’s going to break fantasy this year, and Dalton Kincaid looks to be the main beneficiary. Kincaid has 225 receiving yards through two games and is currently the TE2 on an offense that has scored 35 or more points in back-to-back weeks.
Buy all the Kincaid you can, and grab Dawson Knox too. He’s a formidable backup in case of injury.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young has back-to-back games with three touchdown passes, but the real story is Chuba Hubbard. With Jonathon Brooks headed for core muscle surgery and at least six weeks on IR, Hubbard is in line for even more work. He’s averaging 17.5 PPG. Keep an eye on Austin Ekeler, who’s working out for Carolina this week.
Buy HIGH on Hubbard and this much-improved Panthers offense.
Chicago Bears: Colston Loveland continues to disappoint, and with Caleb Williams out, who knows what to make of the Bears’ skill players. I’m still starting Loveland one more week in hopes of a big game.
Stash! Everyone is probably trying to buy low, so holding is the way to go for now.
4 Biggest Dynasty Storylines in Week 3
After a high-scoring Week 1, Week 2 was defined by defenses bouncing back and Caleb Williams memes. Week 3 sees the NFL return to Brazil, the return of Michael Penix, and the Browns’ home opener. Oh, and Deshaun Watson will still be the starter.
Let’s dive into the biggest dynasty storylines in Week 3.
Quarterback Injury Crisis
The dynasty superflex quarterback streets are grim. It’s tough out here. Case Keenum has been picked up from the waiver wire. In Week 2, Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams went down with injuries. At the time of writing, Jaxson Dart could miss the entire season with a knee injury, Jayden Daniels is seeking specialist advice on how to stop falling to pieces (200g protein and 5g creatine could be a start); and Caleb Williams has replaced JJ McCarthy as the meme du jour.
With Kyler Murray and Michael Penix set to return to action, we will have four backup quarterbacks starting in Week 3. In one of my leagues, I had to start Deshaun Watson. I know. I had to take a long shower afterwards. I ended up losing to a Davante Adams 40 piece which, at least as far as I’m concerned, is proof of karma.
A backup quarterback is typically a harbinger of doom for your fantasy studs.
Dynasty Stashes – Week 3
Emanuel Wilson (RB – SEA)
I looked at the box score, and my jaw nearly dropped when I saw how many carries Emanuel Wilson had in Week 2. In just his second game with the Seahawks, he carried the rock 21 times, a number that Kenneth Walker — you know, the reigning Super Bowl MVP — hadn’t reached in a regular-season game with Seattle since Week 6 of 2023. Wild stuff.
Now, most of Wilson’s work came in garbage time with Seattle blowing out a hapless Arizona team. Still, that type of workload warrants attention, especially with rookie Jadarian Price dealing with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go this week, Wilson could be a sneak RB2 start against a Washington defense that currently ranks 26th in EPA/play (0.09), per SumerSports data.
If you are dealing with injuries at the running back position, grab Wilson, who’s available in roughly 60% of leagues on Sleeper. Seattle is a team that wants to win with tough defense and a physical rushing attack. Against an 0-2 Commanders team missing their starting quarterback, we could see a similar game script to last week.
That could mean another 15-plus carries for Wilson in a next-man-up role.
Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 2
Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy..
This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.
*Data Sources: PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats*
1. Bryce Young Fantasy PPG by year
2023 – 10.4
2024 – 14.6
2025 – 14.3
2026 – 32.4 !!!!!
2. Target Share Leaders through Week 2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 44.0%
Parker Washington – 36.7%
Justin Jefferson – 35.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 35.1%
DeVonta Smith – 33.9%
Davante Adams – 28.1%
CeeDee Lamb – 27.9%
Christian Watson – 27.5%
Chris Olave – 27.4%
Jalen Coker – 27.3%
Tetairoa McMillan – 27.3%
3. Could we see the first-ever 40% target share season from JSN this year? He currently sits at a staggering 44%.
4. From a Dynasty buy standpoint, Christian Watson is very interesting. Watson has always been a premier yards-per-route, run performer. However, he has never been a premier target earner. When you combine those two, you get a WR1. He is priced as the WR27 by the Dynasty community on Keep Trade Cut.
5. I wrote this in last week’s article: “I would be buying Stefon Diggs as a contender. He is probably the best option you can get for a 3rd that will be a reliable starter. Jayden Daniels was running for his life. Diggs is a reliable quick outlet, whereas McLaurin is a downfield threat.” Diggs obliged with a stout 21.7 fantasy points in Week 2.
6. In case you had any reservations about Parker Washington. Remove them. He is 100% the real deal, Holyfield.
Dynasty Rookie Round-Up: Week 2
In this series, @joshreedy5 spotlights standout performances from the 2026 rookie class and highlights promising and concerning trends.
My Name is Jonah Coleman!
Denver Broncos rookie running back Jonah Coleman offers immediate volume upside and a high-floor, three-down upside profile. A real opportunity for playing time opened up for Jonah after hamstring injuries to both J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Lightning struck twice in the same week, benefiting the next guy up: Jonah Coleman.
Dynasty Buy and Sell: Week 2
It’s that time of year when teams start to show who’s built for the long haul and who’s running on fumes. Bye weeks are hitting hard, injuries are piling up, and depth starts to matter. Every move from here on out counts. That’s where we make our money: finding those buy windows before they slam shut and moving off guys right before the drop comes. With that, let’s dive right into my top four “buys” and “sells” from a Dynasty perspective following Week 2.
C2C Waiver Report: Post Week 3
Week 3 gave us something I really like when I am working the C2C waiver wire: roles starting to change.
At this point, I am not just looking for somebody who had one big Saturday. I want to know why it happened. Did the workload change? Are the targets becoming consistent? Is a young player starting to take over a bigger role?
That is where we can get ahead of the rest of our league. The approach stays the same. Win the campus side first. Then I am looking at C2C appreciation, youth, and ceiling.
Every recommendation assumes a $100 C2C FAAB budget.
Overall Waiver Order
Nolan James Jr., RB, Notre Dame: Add at 18 to 25 percent
Keyjuan Brown, RB, Louisville: Add at 15 to 22 percent
Chris Durr Jr., WR, Maryland: Add at 12 to 18 percent
Aiden Flora, RB, Iowa State: Add at 10 to 16 percent
Kari Ashley, TE, TCU: Add at 8 to 13 percent
Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt: Add at 8 to 12 percent
Justin Bowick, WR, Oklahoma State: Add at 6 to 10 percent
CJ Baxter Jr., RB, Kentucky: Add at 5 to 9 percent
Micah Gilbert, WR, Notre Dame: Add at 4 to 8 percent
Kenny Johnson, WR, Texas Tech: Add at 3 to 6 percent
Elija Lofton, TE, Miami: Stash at 2 to 5 percent
Quarterbacks
No quarterback makes my waiver list this week. There are quarterbacks worth talking about, but we have already covered the ones who fit what we are trying to do here. I am not going to recycle a name just because he had another good week.
That is part of Always Be Scouting too. We want to find these players before everyone else catches up.
Running Backs
Nolan James Jr., Notre Dame
James is my Final Lock this week. He carried the ball 26 times for 121 yards and 1 touchdown against Michigan State. The 121 yards are nice. The 26 carries are what really got my attention.
That is not a player getting a few touches and breaking one long run. Notre Dame gave James a legitimate workload, and the latest reporting has him moving ahead of Aneyas Williams in the backfield. Now we have something I want to attack.
James can help us win the campus side right now, and if this workload sticks, his C2C value should have room to grow with it. I am not dropping Williams because of one week. That would be an overreaction. But I am absolutely adding James because 26 carries and an expanding role are exactly what we are looking for.
My call: Spend 18 to 25 percent. James is my No. 1 waiver claim this week.
Devy Players of the Week – Week 3
How is Week 3 of college football already in the books? Time flies when you’re watching the greatest sport on planet Earth. Anyway, you guys know the drill by now. I’m bringing you the top two performances from each fantasy position this week, focusing solely on future NFL prospects. Let’s see who made the cut.
Quarterback
Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele (QB – Cal)
27-33, 448 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
The Hawaiian southpaw had his best game of the season yesterday, granted it was against an FCS opponent in Wagner. He threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns in just 2.5 quarters, scoring on seven of eight drives. JKS was nearly perfect under center this weekend, but we expected as much against this level of competition.
I want to see him take another step forward in P4 play; against Syracuse and UCLA this year, he’s sitting with just a 60% completion rate and 6.0 yards per attempt. He’ll need to be more efficient as a passer to solidify his spot as the devy QB1, given he provides nothing on the ground. Realistically, we’ll need him to become a Joe Burrow-level passer to be a first-round startup pick in dynasty formats (which I believe is in his range of outcomes).
Keelon Russell (QB – Alabama)
23-30, 320 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
5 attempts, 62 yards, 1 TD
Keelon legacy game! What a performance from the sophomore in a shootout win against Florida State. He accounted for nearly 400 yards of offense and four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing), not even turning the ball over once.
This was the kind of stat line we were waiting for after two underwhelming box scores to start the season. Russell looked confident as ever in the pocket this weekend, with polished mechanics and a lightning-quick release. He’s a pass-first quarterback with the mobility and burst to tuck it and run at any time. This 2028 quarterback class is shaping up to be incredible, with JKS, Keelon, and Kamario Taylor leading the charge.