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Week 4 gave us a little bit of everything. We had a former five-star quarterback come off the bench and remind everybody why he was such a big recruiting name. We had a young SEC quarterback continue to force his way onto the radar. We had running backs handle massive workloads, veteran transfers make explosive plays and a pair of highly valued quarterbacks survive games where their offensive lines did them very few favors.
But this article is not about chasing box scores. Every week I want to figure out what actually matters for C2C. Did a player’s value change? Did his role change? Was the production sustainable, or did one huge play make the final stat line look better than the performance really was? Then, as always, we will finish with the injuries we need to monitor going into next week.
Oregon vs. USC
Dylan Raiola, QB, Oregon
Dylan Raiola came off the bench after Dante Moore left the game and completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards, 11.6 yards per attempt, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He was not sacked, did not record a rushing attempt or fumble, and led Oregon to a 41 to 27 win after Moore left the game.
Raiola’s 62-yard completion to Dierre Hill Jr. came early in the third quarter with Oregon leading 13 to 10. His 34-yard completion to Jamari Johnson came later with Oregon ahead 20 to 17. Those two plays supplied 96 yards, or 33.2 percent of Raiola’s production. Remove them, and he was still 17 of 23 for 193 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, with both touchdowns.
That was legit. The former five-star recruit entered with 4,819 career passing yards and 31 touchdowns from his two seasons at Nebraska, so we are not pretending this came from nowhere. What changed is the landing spot and the possibility that Oregon can keep its offense alive without Moore. I’m moving Raiola back onto the active C2C board, but the immediate value depends heavily on Moore’s health and Oregon’s quarterback decision.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Moore completed 8 of 10 passes for 77 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, with no touchdowns or interceptions before leaving. He was not sacked, added one carry for 10 yards, and did not fumble. His 37-yard completion supplied 48.1 percent of his passing yards. Without it, he was 7 of 9 for 40 yards and 4.4 yards per attempt.
The injury is the story here, not the box score, and this is a hold until we know more. There is no reason to make a C2C valuation move based on an incomplete game and an unresolved injury, especially when we still do not know how long Moore could be out or what Oregon plans to do at quarterback.
C2C takeaway: Raiola is back on the active board. Moore is a hold until we have more information.
Mississippi State vs. Missouri
Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State
Kamario Taylor completed 27 of 38 passes for 360 yards, 9.5 yards per attempt, three passing touchdowns and one interception in Mississippi State’s 31 to 24 win. He took four sacks and added 10 carries for 7 yards with no rushing touchdowns or fumbles.
His 43-yard touchdown to Sanfrisco Magee came in a scoreless first quarter. The 48-yard completion to Anthony Evans III came with 4:54 remaining and the game tied at 24, setting up the winning touchdown. Those plays supplied 91 yards. Without them, Taylor was still 25 of 36 for 269 yards, 7.5 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns.
This kid is forcing us to pay attention. Taylor is a 6-foot-4, 230-pound sophomore who threw only 77 passes last season. Now he has delivered a 360-yard performance and a fourth-quarter answer against an SEC defense. That combination of youth, frame, and production was enough for me to move Taylor all the way to QB1 in my C2C rankings this week.
The failure condition is still pressure. Four sacks and the interception remind us that he is developing, but this was more than empty production. At this point, I’m not just watching Kamario Taylor anymore. I’m treating him like one of the most valuable quarterbacks on the campus side.
Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State
Fluff Bothwell carried 25 times for 122 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, with a long of 18 and one rushing touchdown. He caught 6 of 7 targets for 55 yards and another touchdown. That gave him 31 touches, 177 scrimmage yards, two total touchdowns, and no fumbles.
There was no 50-yard run inflating this line. Bothwell earned everything across a massive workload. He already had consecutive productive seasons entering this year, but seven targets are the important development. If that receiving work sticks, he becomes more than a campus hammer and his C2C profile becomes more interesting because that gives us another avenue for production. I’m moving him up modestly and buying before everybody decides one Saturday made him a guaranteed NFL feature back.
C2C takeaway: Taylor made the biggest move of the week for me and is now my QB1 in C2C. Bothwell gets a bump, especially if the receiving work continues.
Week 4 of college football is officially in the books! Hopefully your rostered devy players have been moving up DFF’s consensus Big Boards and not down. There’s a lot of movement in these early weeks of the season, as players firmly establish roles in their offense and begin to stand out among the rest. With that, let’s take a look at this week’s top performances!
Quarterback
Keelon Russell (QB – Alabama)
21-27, 365 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
6 attempts, 46 yards, 1 TD
Could Alabama make a run at the National Championship this year? With Keelon Russell under center, I wouldn’t count them out. Russell lands on my DPTOW list for the second consecutive week as the Crimson Tide DISMANTLED this South Carolina Gamecock defense, winning 49-18.
Russell accounted for over 400 yards of offense and five total touchdowns in this one, once again looking calm and polished in the pocket throughout. Russell has moved up to my devy QB1 overall, but he has some difficult challenges ahead, to say the least. Bama’s next four games: Mississippi State, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU. If he can make it through this stretch unscathed, we may be looking at the 1.01 in 2028 dynasty rookie drafts.
Julian Sayin (QB – Ohio State)
27-36, 367 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
9 attempts, 27 yards, 1 TD
Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes took care of business against the Illini this weekend, winning by a score of 42-19. Sayin put up an identical stat line to Russell, posting nearly 400 yards of offense and five touchdowns of his own. Through four games this year, Sayin has racked up over 1,200 yards and 12 total touchdowns with just one interception.
Resident Buckeye fan and DFF analyst @Evan_Kerr_ has pointed out that Sayin may not have an NFL arm, frequently underthrowing his receivers deep. Luckily, he has arguably the best receiver in college football history on his team, so he gets bailed out frequently. I’m not sold on Sayin as a dynasty asset yet, but as with any quarterback, we’ll have to see what kind of draft capital and landing spot he gets. Even if he gets a starting job, his fantasy ceiling is capped with his lack of rushing upside.
The 2027 NFL Draft class is shaping up to be an excellent, albeit unconventional, group of prospects, headlined by a couple of zero-star recruits, a three-star, an elite legacy, and a Midwest blue-chipper.
As college football enters week 4, I am planting my flag with my current top five signal-callers – with the clear understanding that this board remains fluid and several rising prospects are still within striking distance.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss – “The Magician”
Operating with the elusive agility of an escape artist, this former zero-star recruit routinely pulls highlight-reel plays out of thin air. Reminiscent of Caleb Williams, Chambliss’ elite ability to manipulate defensive spacing and orchestrate out-of-structure chaos has made him the most lethal drive-and-dish point guard in college football. The beautiful thing? He can operate on time and in rhythm too. This combination and elite belief in himself make him the most dangerous quarterback in the country when the game hangs in the balance; to say he’s capable of last-minute magic is an understatement.
However, while he possesses tremendous physical gifts, a shorter physical build right at the 6-foot threshold will give traditional front offices pause. Furthermore, because he fought for a sixth year of eligibility, Chambliss will be 25 years old in week 1 of the 2027 NFL season, forcing NFL decision-makers to evaluate him as an older prospect.
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State – “The Gun-Slinger”
Another phenomenal zero-star walk-on story, Mestemaker defies developmental trajectories, relying instead on a talented, quick-trigger arm that stylistically conjures images of Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. He plays with a fearless bravado, constantly attacking tight intermediate windows and driving the ball deep downfield with supreme confidence.
Mestemaker’s biggest flaw is a lack of historical reps and playing in a purely collegiate system. The quarterback famously rarely played in high school and had to walk on to the North Texas program just to earn a chance to play college football. Furthermore, the Cowboys’ prolific air-raid system, led by head coach Eric Morris, is viewed as a college-specific scheme whose passing philosophies are only utilized in snippets at the professional level.
Nobody has a perfect hit rate in fantasy, and anyone who claims they do is lying. At DFF, we believe being transparent about our misses is important. It’s the first step in learning from mistakes and improving our process.
That’s why, in today’s article, I’ll be diving into my early-season misses and the lessons I’ve learned (if any) through a dynasty lens. Dynasty calls for more patience than redraft; just because someone has failed to produce through three weeks or dominated early doesn’t mean they’ll be the same player for years to come. So let’s figure out whether it’s time to hit the panic button.
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)
I’ve been part of the Loveland hive since his early days at Michigan. He displays the play strength to play in-line, has velcro hands, and moves like a wide receiver. There’s a reason I have 33% Loveland ownership across all my fantasy leagues; I took him over Tyler Warren in every single rookie draft I was in last year.
Well, it’s been a nightmare start to the season for the former Wolverine, sitting with only one reception in two games. His 2026 per-route numbers include a 6.3% target rate and 0.05 yards per route run. (How is that even possible?) To everyone’s surprise, Kalif Raymond is leading the charge at wide receiver, and HC Ben Johnson is even drawing up plays for Sam Rousch. Odd.
While my Loveland teams have gotten off to a slow start, I’m not panicking yet. Loveland is the TE4 overall in snap rate and TE6 in route participation. He’s a full-time player with real receiving skills, and the big games are coming. I’ve dropped Loveland a bit in my overall dynasty ranks, but he does remain as my TE3 overall.
Jalen Coker (WR – CAR)
I specifically remember saying in our DFF Discord this offseason that Jalen Coker was a JAG, and that it was tough to envision a scenario where your team is a true contender and Coker is an every-week starter. Boy was I wrong. Shout-out to DFF analyst @Paul_Ryan15, who was bullish on Coker since this summer.
In Coker’s last four games (dating back to last year), he’s averaging 9 targets, 8 receptions, 85 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown per game. That’s about 22 PPR points per game. Bryce Young appears to be the real deal, and this passing offense is consolidated between two guys: Coker and Tetairoa McMillan.
I’ve been trying to buy Coker recently, but nobody is selling. And frankly, I don’t blame them. A four-game sample isn’t massive, but it also suggests this is no fluke. He’s moved up to my WR31 overall in dynasty. I’m not sure there was a major lesson to be learned here, other than that a clear top-two option in an offense trending upwards deserved more of my attention, even if Coker was a UDFA and a modest producer in the past. I’ll be interested to see how this passing offense fares against some better defense as the season progresses.
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The Assembly Line, Vol. 6: Dynasty Football Factory Newsletter
Catch up on all the latest fantasy football news and analysis at Dynasty Football Factory with this week’s edition of The Assembly Line!
The Devy Notebook 2026: Volume 4
Welcome back to the fourth edition of the Devy Notebook 2026. We are inching closer to conference play, which will be the true test for most devy players that we care about, but that doesn’t mean that there weren’t some notes from this weekend’s games. Let’s see who made an impression this week.
Darian Mensah’s accuracy was truly on display this week. He completed 30/34 passes for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. He will be one of the most difficult evaluations this season because only one defense will truly test Miami before the playoffs, and it won’t happen until November 7th against Notre Dame. If you have been following along with the Devy Notebook since its inception, you know that we have been on Darian Mensah since his time at Duke. It seems more and more likely that our deep shot from a couple of years ago becomes a first-round pick next spring.
The world was touting Jalen Lott. The devy community has been waiting for Gatlin Bair. But absolutely no one was expecting Oregon freshman Messiah Hampton to be a budding star. He caught 6 balls for 71 yards and two touchdowns this weekend against Portland State, which was 3 more catches and 46 more yards than Lott and Bair combined. It’s hard to make any recommendations off of one game against lower competition, but any freshman getting this type of playing time for a top-tier team should be stashed.
Darius Taylor did not play this week, and yet again he finds himself frequently on the injury report. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again: if your body cannot hold up against college competition, how can we ever expect it to hold up against the athletes in the NFL? If you own any Taylor shares, my best advice is to get out while you still can.
We saw glimpses of the old Justice Haynes this weekend against Mercer as he rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Two average showings against Colorado and Tennessee in prior weeks left us underwhelmed and prevented him from getting his name in the recent first-round mock draft from DFF. We need to see more against better competition as conference play begins.
Many predicted a breakout season for Clemson running back Gideon Davidson this season. He had his best game of the year against UNC this past weekend, rushing for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. If you’re box score scouting, this line is encouraging. But we aren’t here for the box score. There were multiple runs that showed poor vision, slow feet, and poor lateral cutting ability. He is the type of runner that instills confidence in his opponents, not the other way around.
C2C Start/Sit: Week 4
Week 4 is where I really want to start separating the player from the weekly situation. We have enough games now to know who is earning touches, who is losing them, and which early-season breakouts might actually be real. That does not mean we blindly follow the box score.
A player can still be someone I like long term and belong on the bench this week. On the other side, an emerging player does not need to be a household name yet if the role tells us it is time to trust him. That is what we are looking for this week.
As always, every C2C league is different. Your scoring, lineup requirements, and roster can change a close decision.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
Starts
Ryan Browne, Purdue at Notre Dame
This is exactly the type of Start I want for this article. Browne has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of Purdue’s first 3 games and enters Week 4 with 1,024 passing yards, 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Now we get the real test.
Notre Dame has been legitimately good defensively, so I am not calling this an easy matchup. What I am betting on is Purdue’s passing game. They are averaging 366.7 passing yards per game, and Browne has completed 73.3 percent of his passes through 3 weeks.
Purdue’s defense has also helped create game scripts where Browne has to keep throwing. So I am not sitting him just because Notre Dame is on the other side. Purdue has shown me enough through 3 games to trust the volume until somebody proves we should not.
Ethan Grunkemeyer, Virginia Tech at Boston College
Grunkemeyer is starting to become one of those players where the role is getting more interesting before everybody completely catches up. Virginia Tech has put a lot on his plate in James Franklin’s offense, and I like that for C2C.
Boston College gives us enough resistance that this is not some automatic matchup call, but I am not running away from the volume either. This is where I want to get ahead of the point where Grunkemeyer becomes an obvious weekly option.
Sits
Hauss Hejny, Colorado State at UTSA
The production says Start. The hamstring says Sit. Hejny has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 619 yards, 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception while adding 128 rushing yards and another touchdown.
That is exactly the type of production we want from our campus quarterback. The problem is that he is now a game time decision with a hamstring injury.
His mobility is part of what makes him valuable, so even if he is active, I do not want to find out after kickoff that Colorado State is protecting him or limiting what he can do with his legs. This one hurts because I like the player and the production. I just do not like the risk this week.
Tait Reynolds, Clemson at California
Tait Reynolds is still Clemson’s starting quarterback. Christopher Vizzina being probable does not change that.
What it does change is how comfortable I am with the weekly floor. Clemson’s offense has not been consistent enough for me to completely ignore the possibility that Vizzina gets involved if things are not going well Friday night.
Reynolds still has the long-term talent I like, but this is a weekly campus decision. I need more stability before I trust him in the lineup.
Last Week In Fantasy: Week 2
Week 2 was dominated by injuries, and unfortunately, that comes with the territory. But with Week 3 just a day away (or already here, depending on when this finds you), let’s dig into some Week 2 stats and see if we can find an edge on our leaguemates.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. has a combined four targets through two games and has scored fewer than five fantasy points. Among 103 receivers with 25 or more routes, he ranks 100th in target rate. I’m sitting Harrison until further notice.
Stash! Really, I’d be selling low at this point, but his price is too low for what he could be if he ever reaches his potential.
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London must have Drake London on his fantasy team, because he was not happy on Sunday. Just ask the fan he got into it with. Michael Penix Jr. takes over the offense this week, and things can only go up from here. In 2025, with Penix at QB, Bijan Robinson averaged 22.7 PPG, London averaged 19.5 PPG, and Kyle Pitts averaged 13 PPG. New coaching staff, sure, but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere.
Buy Atlanta players before they blow up.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews has six or more targets in back-to-back games, and with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar gone, the tight end room is all his. Zay Flowers already missed Week 2 and could miss again this week. Rashod Bateman is Andrews’ only real competition for targets, and Andrews will continue to eat.
Buy Andrews in every format if you’re contending.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen looks like he’s going to break fantasy this year, and Dalton Kincaid looks to be the main beneficiary. Kincaid has 225 receiving yards through two games and is currently the TE2 on an offense that has scored 35 or more points in back-to-back weeks.
Buy all the Kincaid you can, and grab Dawson Knox too. He’s a formidable backup in case of injury.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young has back-to-back games with three touchdown passes, but the real story is Chuba Hubbard. With Jonathon Brooks headed for core muscle surgery and at least six weeks on IR, Hubbard is in line for even more work. He’s averaging 17.5 PPG. Keep an eye on Austin Ekeler, who’s working out for Carolina this week.
Buy HIGH on Hubbard and this much-improved Panthers offense.
Chicago Bears: Colston Loveland continues to disappoint, and with Caleb Williams out, who knows what to make of the Bears’ skill players. I’m still starting Loveland one more week in hopes of a big game.
Stash! Everyone is probably trying to buy low, so holding is the way to go for now.
4 Biggest Dynasty Storylines in Week 3
After a high-scoring Week 1, Week 2 was defined by defenses bouncing back and Caleb Williams memes. Week 3 sees the NFL return to Brazil, the return of Michael Penix, and the Browns’ home opener. Oh, and Deshaun Watson will still be the starter.
Let’s dive into the biggest dynasty storylines in Week 3.
Quarterback Injury Crisis
The dynasty superflex quarterback streets are grim. It’s tough out here. Case Keenum has been picked up from the waiver wire. In Week 2, Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams went down with injuries. At the time of writing, Jaxson Dart could miss the entire season with a knee injury, Jayden Daniels is seeking specialist advice on how to stop falling to pieces (200g protein and 5g creatine could be a start); and Caleb Williams has replaced JJ McCarthy as the meme du jour.
With Kyler Murray and Michael Penix set to return to action, we will have four backup quarterbacks starting in Week 3. In one of my leagues, I had to start Deshaun Watson. I know. I had to take a long shower afterwards. I ended up losing to a Davante Adams 40 piece which, at least as far as I’m concerned, is proof of karma.
A backup quarterback is typically a harbinger of doom for your fantasy studs.
Dynasty Stashes – Week 3
Emanuel Wilson (RB – SEA)
I looked at the box score, and my jaw nearly dropped when I saw how many carries Emanuel Wilson had in Week 2. In just his second game with the Seahawks, he carried the rock 21 times, a number that Kenneth Walker — you know, the reigning Super Bowl MVP — hadn’t reached in a regular-season game with Seattle since Week 6 of 2023. Wild stuff.
Now, most of Wilson’s work came in garbage time with Seattle blowing out a hapless Arizona team. Still, that type of workload warrants attention, especially with rookie Jadarian Price dealing with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go this week, Wilson could be a sneak RB2 start against a Washington defense that currently ranks 26th in EPA/play (0.09), per SumerSports data.
If you are dealing with injuries at the running back position, grab Wilson, who’s available in roughly 60% of leagues on Sleeper. Seattle is a team that wants to win with tough defense and a physical rushing attack. Against an 0-2 Commanders team missing their starting quarterback, we could see a similar game script to last week.
That could mean another 15-plus carries for Wilson in a next-man-up role.
Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 2
Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy..
This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.
*Data Sources: PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats*
1. Bryce Young Fantasy PPG by year
2023 – 10.4
2024 – 14.6
2025 – 14.3
2026 – 32.4 !!!!!
2. Target Share Leaders through Week 2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 44.0%
Parker Washington – 36.7%
Justin Jefferson – 35.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 35.1%
DeVonta Smith – 33.9%
Davante Adams – 28.1%
CeeDee Lamb – 27.9%
Christian Watson – 27.5%
Chris Olave – 27.4%
Jalen Coker – 27.3%
Tetairoa McMillan – 27.3%
3. Could we see the first-ever 40% target share season from JSN this year? He currently sits at a staggering 44%.
4. From a Dynasty buy standpoint, Christian Watson is very interesting. Watson has always been a premier yards-per-route, run performer. However, he has never been a premier target earner. When you combine those two, you get a WR1. He is priced as the WR27 by the Dynasty community on Keep Trade Cut.
5. I wrote this in last week’s article: “I would be buying Stefon Diggs as a contender. He is probably the best option you can get for a 3rd that will be a reliable starter. Jayden Daniels was running for his life. Diggs is a reliable quick outlet, whereas McLaurin is a downfield threat.” Diggs obliged with a stout 21.7 fantasy points in Week 2.
6. In case you had any reservations about Parker Washington. Remove them. He is 100% the real deal, Holyfield.
Dynasty Rookie Round-Up: Week 2
In this series, @joshreedy5 spotlights standout performances from the 2026 rookie class and highlights promising and concerning trends.
My Name is Jonah Coleman!
Denver Broncos rookie running back Jonah Coleman offers immediate volume upside and a high-floor, three-down upside profile. A real opportunity for playing time opened up for Jonah after hamstring injuries to both J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Lightning struck twice in the same week, benefiting the next guy up: Jonah Coleman.
