I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Bears.
High-End Assets
Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. He’s had a fantastic redraft journey, with many ups and downs throughout his six years. Robinson broke out in 2015 as a Jaguar, finishing with 1,400 receiving yards and as the WR6. However, he followed that strong performance up with a down year in 2016 before missing most of 2017 with a torn ACL.
After 2017, Robinson signed with the Bears in free agency to a 3-year, $42 million contract to become their top receiver. Robinson moved from one mediocre quarterback in Blake Bortles to another in Mitch Trubisky and struggled in his first year in the Bears’ offense. In 2018, Robinson had a few injuries, but he also wasn’t great when he did see the field. He caught only 55 of 94 targets for 754 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the WR39 and 33rd in fantasy PPG.
Despite a few down years, Robinson finally put it all together in 2019. Trubisky regressed as a quarterback but force-fed Robinson targets. Robinson had 154 targets, third-most among wide receivers, which he turned into 98 receptions for 1,147 yards and six touchdowns, finishing as the WR8. He once again served as the Bears’ clear number one receiving target, ahead of both Tarik Cohen and Anthony Miller.
Going into 2020, the Bears acquired Nick Foles in a trade from the Jaguars. While Foles has been an inconsistent quarterback throughout his career, he can’t be worse than Trubisky. The Bears also added no significant receiving weapons in either free agency or the NFL Draft. They released Taylor Gabriel and signed Ted Ginn as his replacement. Also, they drafted tight end Cole Kmet in the second round and wide receiver Darnell Mooney in the fifth round. Neither player should make a significant impact in 2020, allowing Robinson to have another strong season. He’s my WR10 and 25th overall player.
Usable Contributors
David Montgomery
The Bears drafted David Montgomery with the 73rd overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. After trading Jordan Howard, Montgomery directly replaced him as the two-down grinder opposite receiving back Tarik Cohen. At the beginning of 2019, Montgomery split a few carries with Mike Davis, but the Bears quickly gave him the full two-down role. He dominated the backfield with 242 carries to Cohen’s 64 and also chipped in 25 receptions.
However, Montgomery did very little with his opportunities in 2019. He turned his 242 carries into only 889 yards and six touchdowns, good for a measly 3.7 YPC. Montgomery also didn’t accomplish much with his receptions, as he had only 185 yards and a touchdown. While Montgomery performed poorly, I think we should take a closer look at the Bears’ offense, specifically his backfield mate, Cohen. Cohen wasn’t any better than Montgomery, averaging a lower YPC and fewer yards per reception. Perhaps, the Bears’ offensive line and scheme were the problems, not Montgomery.
The Bears made no real additions to their running back depth chart for 2020. Therefore, they plan to split their backfield between Montgomery and Cohen once again, just like they did in 2019. Montgomery should get a similar carry volume and should do better with those touches in his second year in the offense. Therefore, based on volume alone, Montgomery comes in as my RB22 and 43rd overall. I don’t like his upside, but high-volume running backs are rare in today’s NFL. I’m okay with Montgomery on my team at that price.
Tarik Cohen
Like Montgomery, I expect positive regression for Cohen in 2020. While Cohen is a PPR-only asset, he’s been effective in that format since he started his career in 2017. Like the Patriots scatback James White, Cohen is essentially a wide receiver, seeing snaps all across the formation, not solely as a running back.
As a rookie, Cohen had 53 receptions on 71 targets for 353 yards and a touchdown and added 87 carries for 370 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the RB30. Then, in 2018, Cohen took a step forward, improving in all categories. Cohen had 71 receptions on 90 targets for 725 yards and five touchdowns and moved forward as a rusher with 99 carries for 444 yards and three touchdowns. Cohen finished as the RB11 in 2018 and looked like he would be a reliable PPR weapon for years to come.
Cohen had a bizarre 2019 season. He had even more target volume than before, finishing second on the Bears with 104 targets behind only Allen Robinson. However, Cohen managed only 79 receptions for 456 yards and three touchdowns on his high target total. Cohen declined from an excellent 10.2 yards per reception in 2018 to a horrid 5.8 in 2019. Even with terrible efficiency, though, Cohen still finished as the RB27.
Going into 2020, I’m not saying that I believe Cohen will return to his 2018 form. I think he comes with limited upside, although he can probably improve on his 2019 efficiency numbers. The Bears added no actual receiving weapons, so Cohen’s targets will continue to come. Even with guaranteed targets, Cohen seems to be an afterthought to most fantasy owners, which I can’t understand. I have Cohen as my RB31, and I’ve drafted him in almost every mock draft I’ve done thus far this offseason. He’s never missed a game in his career, and he’s a screaming value in redraft PPR leagues in 2020.
Dart Throws
Anthony Miller
On another team, I might have more interest in Miller in fantasy. He’s the clear secondary receiver on the team behind Robinson, competing with Cohen to be the second target in the passing game. The Bears drafted him in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, and Miller flashed throughout his two seasons in the league.
In 2018, Miller had 33 receptions on 54 targets for 423 yards and seven touchdowns. While his receiving stats weren’t impressive, fantasy owners took note of those seven touchdowns, as Miller led the Bears in that category. Miller also struggled with a shoulder injury throughout 2018 and required offseason surgery to repair it. He played 15 games, but he may have played a limited role due to the injury.
Going into 2019, I expected Miller to take a step forward. Once again, his season got off to a bad start, as he was limited early on with an ankle injury. Eventually, Miller got on track and put up a nice season despite playing with Trubisky. Miller caught 52 of 85 targets for 656 yards but only scored two touchdowns. The entire Bears’ offense regressed in 2019, so perhaps Miller’s lack of touchdowns could have resulted from that.
Considering that the Bears added no real receiving weapons, I would generally like Miller’s chances at a Year 3 breakout. Unfortunately, he required yet another shoulder surgery this offseason on the same shoulder. Additionally, the Bears continue to suffer from poor quarterback play. I think this offense will struggle to support three pass-catchers and might not even support two. Robinson is a stud and will produce, so it comes down to Cohen vs. Miller. I’ll bet on Cohen for the reasons I discussed earlier, which means I’m fading Miller. He’s only my WR52, and I think he’s a wasted draft pick due to a complete lack of upside.
Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky
I don’t think there’s much to discuss here for redraft purposes. I broke down the Foles trade back in March, and I concluded that Foles was the slightly superior talent, though it’s closer than most fantasy owners believe. At the time, I expected Bears’ general manager Ryan Pace to stick with Trubisky, who Pace traded up for and drafted with the second overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
However, since then, I’ve changed my mind. In a recent superflex backup QBs piece, I projected Foles as the Week 1 starter, based on news reports and betting odds at popular sportsbooks. The Bears also declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option, so they have no ties to Trubisky past 2020. Foles will start the season as the starter, but the Bears might go to Trubisky if Foles fails. For the Bears’ offensive weapons, I would prefer that they stick with Foles for the entire season, even if only to ensure continuity.
Outside of a superflex or 2QB format, I will not draft or even consider selecting either of these two players. Even in such a format, I’d only draft one of these guys as my QB3, and I would prefer to have a safer option. I have Foles ranked as my QB32, dead last among projected starters. Don’t bother looking his way in 2020.
Other Offensive Options
If I’m not interested in the clear WR2 on the Bears in Miller, I think it’s fruitless to bother with any other Bears’ receivers. They signed the corpse of Jimmy Graham in free agency and drafted Cole Kmet in the second round, but neither will produce for fantasy owners. Both are well outside my draftable range. Somehow, there are no significant running backs on the team outside of Montgomery and Cohen outside of Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce. Perhaps the Bears might sign a backup veteran running back, but I wouldn’t look his way either. The Bears are an offense to avoid, not chase in 2020.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Vikings, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, Texans, Jets, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Broncos, Redskins, Rams, Jaguars, Patriots, Falcons, Ravens, Lions, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Colts, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bengals
