In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Vikings.
High-End Assets
Dalvin Cook
To me, the Vikings are the ultimate representation of a top-heavy offense. They want to run the ball behind Dalvin Cook and were one of the few teams to run more than they passed in 2019, with 476 rushing attempts compared to only 466 passes. Considering that the Vikings traded away one of their top receivers in Stefon Diggs and replaced him with a rookie in Justin Jefferson, I only expect them to lean on the run even more.
In 14 games, Cook took 250 carries for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also excelled in the passing game, pulling in 53 of 63 targets for 519 yards. During that period, Cook was the clear RB2, finishing far behind Christian McCaffrey but averaging 1.0 PPG more than any other running back.
There are only two concerns with Cook: his health and a potential holdout. Cook has yet to play a full 16-game season, playing only 29 of a possible 48 regular-season games since he entered the NFL. Also, Cook and the Vikings have yet to agree on a long-term deal, but I believe they will reach an agreement before the season starts. It’s something to watch, but at this point, I assume Cook will be out there for Week 1. Therefore, he’s a top-tier fantasy running back, coming in as my RB5 and fifth player overall.
Usable Contributors
Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen was a bit of an enigma in 2019. In Weeks 1-6, he played very well, catching 26 of 38 targets for 366 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged 16.5 PPR points during that period, 13th among wide receivers.
However, in Week 7, Thielen suffered a hamstring injury, which forced him out of action. He tried to return in Week 9, but he re-aggravated the same injury. He then missed all the games until Week 15, but he still wasn’t the same player. Luckily for the Vikings, they got to see Thielen perform in the playoffs, where he totaled 12 receptions for 179 yards in their two playoff games. Since Thielen was healthy enough to play in the biggest games of the year, he should be fully healthy going into 2020.
As mentioned above, the Vikings traded Diggs to the Bills in March, which I broke down here. I noted Thielen as a big winner in the deal, as he would move into the clear WR1 role for the Vikings. Even with Diggs, Thielen had 142 and 153 targets in 2017 and 2018, respectively. While the Vikings are more run-heavy now than they were back then, Thielen should be able to approach at least 120 targets in 2020.
I only rank him as my WR17 because the Vikings love to run the ball, and Thielen turns 30 before the season, providing him a low floor. He’s a nice WR2 for your fantasy team, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my WR1. There are going to be games where the entire Vikings’ passing game gets scripted out, and Thielen isn’t the type of transcendent talent that can overcome that.
Justin Jefferson
I usually suggest avoiding rookie wide receivers in redraft formats. However, Jefferson comes into the Vikings with first-round draft capital, as the Vikings selected him with the 22nd overall pick. Diggs had 94 targets in 2020, and Jefferson should slide right into that role. Unfortunately for the Vikings, their offensive scheme seems to be an odd fit for Jefferson.
At LSU, Jefferson played as a big slot receiver in the Joe Burrow-led offense. On the Vikings, not only does Thielen excel in the slot, but the offense runs 12 personnel very frequently. Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. finished fourth and fifth on the team in targets in 2019, behind only Diggs, Cook, and Thielen. The Vikings also lack anything significant at receiver beyond Thielen and Jefferson, with Olabisi Johnson, Tajae Sharpe, and Chad Beebe making up the rest of the depth chart. Therefore, they should probably play sets with both Rudolph and Smith on the field to maximize their offensive efficiency.
Even though the fit is poor, there is no denying that there are targets up for grabs here. But as the Vikings are a run-first team, I think Thielen is the only receiver I want here. Jefferson is my WR47 based on his upside, but I doubt I’ll draft him in any of my leagues. I prefer to take a shot on other rookie wide receivers who either could be the top option on their team like Henry Ruggs or play in high-powered offenses like CeeDee Lamb.
Dart Throws
Alexander Mattison
Alexander Mattison is the best handcuff in fantasy football. He is Cook’s direct backup and played well when he saw the field in 2019. He had 100 carries for 462 yards and a touchdown and caught 10 of 12 targets for 82 yards. Unfortunately for Mattison, he was also hurt when Cook missed the final two games, allowing the combination of Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah to play in his place.
Even though we’ve never actually seen Mattison replace Cook as the workhorse starter, I wholeheartedly believe that he would do that if Cook went down. Since Mattison would be a weekly RB1 with a Cook injury, he’s worth a late-round pick if you pick Cook in the first round. Even if you don’t have Cook on your team, Mattison is still a worthy flier in deep leagues. Cook has never completed a season, and there are few players that deep in drafts that have as much upside as Mattison.
Kirk Cousins
While Kirk Cousins is a solid real-life quarterback, I cannot draft him in a redraft 1QB league. Cousins was solid in 2019, throwing 26 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions while completing 69.1% of his passes. However, he threw for only 3,603 yards and added absolutely nothing on the ground with only 63 rushing yards all season. He finished as the QB18 in 2019 and was 19th in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.
When drafting a late-round quarterback, I would like to pick someone that has the upside to become a high-end QB1. There is little chance that Cousins will even finish as a low-end QB1, especially after losing Diggs this offseason. He also opens the season against Green Bay, a top-five defense against fantasy quarterbacks in 2019. Therefore, Cousins is just a streamer in the few predictable shootouts against weak defenses in 2020 and comes in as my QB22. Don’t bother drafting him.
Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph
I’ve combined Smith Jr. and Rudolph here since if you combined the two into one player, you’d have an excellent fantasy tight end. The two had incredibly similar stat lines in 2019, with Rudolph finishing with 39 receptions on 48 targets for 367 yards and Smith Jr. with 36 receptions on 47 targets for 311 yards. The main difference came in touchdowns, where Rudolph scored six, and Smith Jr. only scored two. Because of that, Rudolph finished as the TE14 with 113.7 fantasy points, while Smith Jr. was the TE33 with only 79.1.
However, if you put the two players together, they totaled 192.8 fantasy points, which would have come in at TE6 in 2019. While that sort of metric isn’t perfect, it does demonstrate the idea that if one of the two players were to get hurt, the other could undoubtedly be a TE1. I expect Smith Jr. to take a step forward in Year 2 and outperform Rudolph. Unfortunately, unless Rudolph suffers an injury or gets wholly phased out of the offense, Smith Jr. probably won’t be too relevant in fantasy. Smith Jr. comes in as my TE23, while Rudolph is my TE31, both far outside of the draftable range for tight ends.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Saints, Steelers
