In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Titans.
High-End Assets
Derrick Henry
Henry is a solid RB1 for 2020, coming in at 11th overall in my redraft rankings and as my RB6. Henry ran for 1540 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2019 and finished as the RB5 and third in PPR points per game. The Titans didn’t add any true competition at running back, replacing third-down back Dion Lewis with rookie Darrynton Evans. They also placed the franchise tag on Henry for 2020. I expect Henry and the Titans to work out a long-term deal since Henry is the centerpiece of their offense.
Therefore, Henry has locked-in volume and high touchdown upside. Even though he only caught 18 passes in 2019, he still does enough on the ground to justify a first-round selection. The Titans didn’t add any receiving weapons, so they will run their offense almost precisely how they did once Ryan Tannehill took over midway through 2019. Once that happened, Henry averaged 23 PPR points per game and was the RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey. While I can’t endorse drafting Henry as the RB2, he does provide a bit of upside at his current price.
A.J. Brown
To me, Brown qualifies as a high-end asset. He’s my WR14 and 33rd overall player in my rankings. Even though he’s just outside the WR1 range, he’s in my fifth tier of receivers that includes alpha receivers such as Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Amari Cooper. As a rookie in 2019, Brown exploded for 1,051 receiving yards, an incredible output for a rookie receiver.
Brown also has lots of room for growth in 2020. He received only 84 targets for 52 receptions in 2019, numbers that should rise in 2020. Brown will enter the season as the clear top receiver in Tennessee, far ahead of teammate Corey Davis. Even though the Titans will be a run-first team, Brown will be their featured passing target and should receive at least seven targets per game. Across 16 games, that would pace for 112 targets, a 33% increase over 2019. Brown already finished as the WR21 in 2019, despite low targets. I think WR14 is a perfect price-point for Brown in 2020.
Usable Contributors
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill was a revelation in 2019. From the moment he took over in Week 7, he was a fantasy stud, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in his 10 starts. He was the QB3 during that period, finding success both through the air and on the ground. He completed 69.6% of his passes for 2,598 yards and 22 touchdowns while throwing only five interceptions.
He also provided a solid rushing floor with 40 carries for 181 yards and four rushing touchdowns. While that’s only an average of 18.1 rushing yards/game, it’s still significant compared to some pure pocket passers. Due to the depth at quarterback, Tannehill is only my QB13. As with most quarterbacks outside the top tier, whether I draft Tannehill or not will depend on his early-season schedule and how those early opposing defenses are shaping up. However, given that Tannehill will likely go undrafted in 2020 redraft leagues, he provides another example of why you should wait on selecting a quarterback in redraft.
Dart Throws
Jonnu Smith
After taking over for an injured Delanie Walker at the beginning of 2019, Smith turned in a mixed season. He caught 35 of 44 targets for 439 yards and three touchdowns. However, he averaged only seven PPR points per game and finished as the TE19. Considering that Smith played 15 games, he averaged less than three targets per game, although he was efficient on those targets. Little has changed in the Titans’ offense, as their top receiving weapons, quarterback, and starting running back are all the same going into 2020. While Smith could take a step forward in Year 4, it’s hard to bet on a massive breakout.
For the first time in years, the mid-range tight ends seem to be a deep group. Therefore, Smith is only my TE17. I think you would be better off going in a different direction in 2020. In my opinion, alternatives such as Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, and Hayden Hurst provide more upside than Smith. I believe that Tannehill can support Brown as a high-end wide receiver, but likely won’t support another reliable receiving weapon. The Titans will continue to spread the ball around, making Smith a streamer.
Darrynton Evans
The Titans drafted Evans with the 93rd overall pick in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Evans slides right into the Dion Lewis role from 2019. Lewis had 54 carries for 209 yards and caught 25 of 32 targets for 164 yards and a touchdown. However, while Lewis looked washed in 2019, Evans brings a fresh, dynamic skill set to that role.
Evans is a 5-10, 203 pound back who excelled in college at Appalachian State. In his final college season, he exploded for 1480 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns as well as 21 catches for 198 yards and five touchdowns through the air. He is a perfect complement to Henry’s bruising style but also had 179 and 255 carries in his final two college seasons. Therefore, if Henry were to go down, Evans could step into Henry’s role in the Titans’ run-heavy offense. While I doubt Evans would be as effective as Henry, he would immediately be a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. I probably wouldn’t draft Evans in redraft, but he’s a name to remember.
Corey Davis
I would write about Davis in my “Dead to Me” series, but honestly, I don’t feel that Davis even deserves his own article. The Titans selected Davis with the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, and he has done almost nothing to justify that selection. Even in his best season in 2018, he caught only 65 of 112 targets for 891 yards and four touchdowns. Then, in 2019, he regressed as Brown emerged. Davis fell to 69 targets, which he converted to 43 receptions, 601 yards, and two touchdowns.
Recently, the Titans declined Davis’ 2021 fifth-year option, so Davis is not in their long-term plans. Somewhat surprisingly, the Titans didn’t sign a receiver in free agency, nor did they select one in the 2020 NFL Draft. Therefore, Davis will continue to start in Tennessee this season and will receive some work. However, don’t waste a late-round pick on Davis in 2020. He should go undrafted in redraft formats.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
