In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Cowboys.
High-End Assets
Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott has performed as a reliable fantasy running back during his entire time in the NFL. He finished as the RB2 in 2016, RB12 in 2017 in 10 games, RB5 in 2018, and RB3 in 2019. Outside of a six-game suspension in 2017, Elliott has only missed one game in his NFL career, a meaningless Week 17 tilt in 2018. He’s had over 300 carries in each of his complete seasons and had 1,357 yards in the worst of those three seasons.
As the Cowboys recently extended Elliott to a long-term contract, there is no reason to believe that they will reduce Elliott’s workload in 2020. While I expect Tony Pollard to mix in a bit on passing downs, Elliott should also get similar passing-game usage to 2019, with his 71 targets a reasonable projection. Therefore, I have Elliott as my RB3 for PPR redraft formats. You can’t go wrong taking him: he’s as safe as any player in fantasy.
Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper is the exact opposite of Elliott. He’s not a player I would call “safe.” While it’s difficult to explain precisely why, Cooper has had stretches where he frustrates fantasy owners almost every year he’s been in the NFL. In 2019, he finished as the WR10, but that doesn’t tell the full story. From Weeks 1-10, Cooper was excellent, performing as the WR4 during that stretch and averaging 20 PPR points per game.
However, after that, he started to succumb to knee and ankle injuries and suddenly became utterly ineffective. In the final seven weeks, he was terrible, averaging only 9.5 PPR points per game and coming in at WR43. Teammate Michael Gallup significantly outperformed him during that period, as Gallup was the WR12 over those seven games.
The Cowboys decided to draft star rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Even though they signed Cooper to a massive 5-year, $100 million contract in free agency, the presence of Lamb is a definite threat to Cooper. In a typical season, I would be even more scared of Lamb, but with the current pandemic, rookies will take a bit more time to adapt than normal. However, Lamb is talented enough to become a regular part of the offense in short order. Therefore, I believe that Cooper’s ceiling has taken a hit, dropping him to my WR13 and 29th overall player. He’s still a high-end fantasy wide receiver, but I’d prefer to have him as my WR2 rather than my WR1.
Usable Contributors
Dak Prescott
Like most of the quarterbacks I’ve discussed so far, Dak Prescott falls into the usable contributors’ group. Prescott has always been a fantasy QB1, finishing as the QB6 in 2016, QB10 in 2017, and QB10 in 2018. However, in 2019, Prescott had a real breakout season, throwing for 4,902 yards, over 1,000 more yards than in any previous season. Also, he set a career-high with 30 touchdowns. Even though he went down from six to three rushing touchdowns, his improved passing numbers led him to a QB2 finish.
Going into 2020, the Cowboys have a similar offense to 2019. They brought back Cooper, Elliott, Gallup, and tight end Blake Jarwin from 2019, while losing Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. I expect Jarwin to step right into Witten’s role from 2019, although the Cowboys don’t have a second pass-catching tight end on the 2020 roster. However, they added a first-round receiver in Lamb to compensate for that. I believe that adding Lamb will add more to the offense than losing Cobb and Witten, so I expect Prescott to at least maintain his strong performance, if not improve on it.
Prescott is my QB3 and 71st player overall. Due to his ceiling, I’m okay spending that late-6th round draft capital on him since I believe that he will provide a positional edge over the majority of quarterbacks. However, I predict that Prescott will go in the fourth or fifth round in most redraft leagues, so I don’t expect to end up with many shares of him in 2020.
Michael Gallup
Out of the Cowboys’ offense, I expect the debate between Gallup and Lamb to be the most critical decision that fantasy owners have to make in 2020. After a decent rookie season in 2018, Gallup broke out in 2019. He recorded 66 receptions on 113 targets for 1107 yards and six touchdowns. He finished with only six fewer targets than Cooper despite playing two fewer games and significantly outperformed Cooper down the stretch. His performance left him as the WR22 and 18th in PPR points per game among wide receivers.
While Lamb is one of the best receiver prospects to come into the NFL in recent years, I can’t see the Cowboys benching or even significantly reducing the role of a player that went over 1,100 yards in their second year. New head coach Mike McCarthy has experience in running 3WR sets, and Lamb excels in the slot. Therefore, at first, I think Gallup and Cooper will be the starting outside receivers, while Lamb will play in the slot.
Since Lamb is so talented and Cooper’s contract is worth $20 million per year, I have to project a decline in Gallup’s performance in 2020. I have him ranked as my WR34, but I honestly don’t feel good about it. Everything I saw in 2020 made me think that Gallup could be just as good of a wide receiver as Cooper, especially if he takes a Year 3 leap. Therefore, Gallup is one of my favorite value receivers, and I’d love to get him at that WR34 price.
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb is a tough player to rely on in drafts. He’s behind both Cooper and Gallup on the depth chart, and the Cowboys also will use Elliott and Jarwin in the passing game. As I mentioned above, I expect the pandemic conditions to cause issues for rookies since they won’t have an ordinary training camp. Additionally, Lamb won’t get to throw with Prescott as much as usual, and he’ll struggle to integrate into the new speed of the NFL.
However, I’ve been hyped about Lamb for months, having written about him on numerous occasions. In my rookie preview article, I said that I expected Lamb to be the first receiver drafted and to go somewhere where he could quickly ascend the depth chart. If he did, I stated that I’d be very interested in Lamb for redraft in 2020 since he has the profile of a real alpha number one NFL receiver.
Unfortunately for Lamb, he went to a team with two solid receivers in front of him. Therefore, he’s only my WR43. His talent is there, but since the beginning of the fantasy season is the most important to me, it’s hard for me to draft Lamb. I don’t think you’ll be able to use him for at least a few weeks, and I want to get an immediate impact from each of my selections in fantasy drafts. It’s probably not worth waiting for Lamb, especially as his ceiling is low among the plethora of receiving weapons in Dallas.
Dart Throws
Tony Pollard
There’s not too much to say about Pollard. Elliott is a complete workhorse back, and the Cowboys won’t take him off the field except for a bit of third-down work and for rest. In 2019, Pollard had 86 carries for 455 yards and two touchdowns spelling Elliott and added 15 catches on 20 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. Pollard averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so he played well when he saw the field.
Like other top handcuffs, I’d love to grab him late if I took Elliott in the first round. Even if I didn’t, he’s a decent value play, since he’s one injury away from RB1 value. The Cowboys’ offense is so high-powered that I genuinely believe Pollard could step in and succeed if Elliott ever went down. With that said, Pollard needs an injury to have any value, so it’s tough to draft him too early in 2020.
Blake Jarwin
The other primary debate on the Cowboys for fantasy purposes is whether you believe in Jarwin or not. After doing nothing in 2017, Jarwin caught 27 passes for 306 yards and three touchdowns in 2018 as part of the Cowboys’ committee of tight ends. Then in 2019, Jason Witten came out of retirement and took over as the starter. Jarwin was the backup, although he improved to 31 receptions on 41 targets for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Going into 2020, the Cowboys gave Jarwin a 4-year, $22 million contract, although only $9.25 million is fully guaranteed. Witten departed to sign with the Raiders, leaving behind 83 targets at the tight end position, and the Cowboys didn’t sign or draft any significant competition for Jarwin. Before the Cowboys drafted Lamb, I expected Jarwin truly to break out, possibly finishing as a TE1. However, with three solid wide receivers in the offense, I’ve dialed back my expectations for Jarwin slightly. I currently have him as my TE17, which might seem low, but I prefer other players in his value range. I doubt I’ll have any shares of Jarwin in 2020.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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