I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Patriots.
High-End Assets
After future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady left the Patriots, they replaced him with completely unproven 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham. They also failed to add any significant or high-profile offensive weapons going into 2020. Therefore, they don’t have any assets I’d describe as high-end or anything close to it.
Usable Contributors
Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman is my top asset on the Patriots in PPR formats. In 2019, Edelman had an excellent season, finishing as the WR7 and averaging 16.0 PPR points per game. He caught 100 of 153 targets for 1,117 yards and eight touchdowns. He had the fourth-most receptions and targets among wide receivers in 2019, so he received elite volume.
Since Edelman first broke out in 2013, he’s led the Patriots in receptions/game every year except when he missed the entire 2017 season. Also, he’s gone over 150 targets in each year he played all 16 games. He has a track record of success and has been fantasy relevant while on the field since that time. Even when competing with other reliable receiving options, Edelman has always been the top target. Considering the lack of pass-catchers on the Patriots’ roster, I don’t think that will change in 2020.
While Edelman had an excellent year in 2019, he’s 34 years old going into 2020 and has a new starting quarterback. Therefore, I don’t expect a WR1 year in 2020 or even a WR2 performance. I have Edelman as my WR33 and 72nd overall player. I think he has little upside to hit his previous highs, but he provides a great floor. I also expect him to go even later in drafts than where I would take him. I’ll likely have some shares of Edelman as my WR3 in PPR leagues this year.
Sony Michel
Sony Michel has had an up and down career, which I chronicled in an entry of my “Dead to Me” series. The Patriots selected Michel in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and immediately made him their starting two-down back, complementing pass-catcher James White. He showed promise in 2018 before missing time to another injury, exacerbating injury concerns he showed at Georgia. While he had a great run in the playoffs and helped the Patriots win a Super Bowl, he wasn’t the fantasy star many expected.
Once again, 2019 was a mixed bag for Michel. He stayed healthy and played all 16 games, dominating the Patriots in carries. He took 247 carries while no other back had more than 67. Michel also managed to ultimately hold off 2019 third-rounder Damien Harris, relegating Harris to a bench spot all season. However, Michel only averaged 3.7 YPC and caught only 12 passes all season. His efficiency declined, and his passing-game usage never appeared. Also, Brandon Bolden and Rex Burkhead vultured touchdowns from Michel, causing him to finish as only the RB31.
Going into 2020, Michel is on a weak offense with competition for carries and targets out of the backfield. The Patriots also still have all their 2019 running backs on the roster. White will continue to play on third-downs, Burkhead will provide a change-of-pace, and Harris will see more chances than in 2019. Since Michel has little receiving or touchdown upside, he’s just a back-end starting running back. I’ve ranked him as my RB31, identical to his 2019 finish. I don’t hate him at that price, but I’m not desperate to have him on my teams.
James White
Similar to Michel, White comes with uncertainty and risk. Over the past four seasons, White has occupied the pass-catching role in the Patriots’ backfield. He finished as the RB26, RB38, RB7, and RB18 in those four years for an average around RB22. However, I believe 2016 and 2017 are more typical of what we can expect from White. In 2018, White had a career-high 94 carries, as the entire Patriots’ backfield suffered injuries, and in 2019, the Patriots lost most of their pass-catchers.
White has never played without Tom Brady as his quarterback. I have no idea whether Stidham will target his running backs as Brady has in the past. White has had 56 receptions or more in each of the last four seasons, but that mark could be at an end this year. I expect the Patriots to move into a run-heavy attack to cover up for Stidham’s deficiencies. With that in mind, they might use dual-threats Harris and Burkhead over White and reduce White’s role. White also turned 28 this offseason and is a free agent after 2020.
With all that in mind, I’m not interested in drafting White in 2020. There’s no upside, and I think his ceiling is a low-end RB2 even in PPR. When taking shots later in drafts, I prefer to look for guys with high-end upside. Even if I take a PPR-only running back, I’d prefer to take Tarik Cohen over White. Cohen had more targets and receptions than White in 2019 and could still improve as a player, as he’s three years younger than White. White is my RB33.
Dart Throws
N’Keal Harry
There’s one thing I always rail on about rookie wide receivers; I want to see something in Year 1, even if it’s just a small flash. Harry failed to show that at all in 2019, recording a pitiful 12 receptions on 24 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns, despite playing in seven games. He never solidified a starting role and put up a terrible performance in the Patriots’ one playoff game, catching two of his seven targets for 21 yards.
Unlike some of the other Patriots’ players, the quarterback change from Brady to Stidham could be a positive for Harry’s value. Even though it’s only a narrative, I felt that Harry was in Brady’s doghouse. Brady seemed to distrust him and didn’t want to involve him in the offense. Bill Belichick is still the head coach and general manager of the Patriots, and he drafted Harry in the first round just a year ago. Therefore, I expect Harry to see more action in Year 2, even if I’m skeptical after his poor first season.
However, since the Patriots’ offense is so bad and will likely be run-heavy, I’m not interested in any pass-catchers past Edelman. Harry is only my WR53. He undoubtedly has an upside based on his draft capital, but I’ll need to see it before adding him to my team. I’ll wait and pick him up on waivers in-season if he shows something.
Damien Harris
Harris had four carries in 2019, so we’ve seen nothing from him in the NFL. The Patriots decided not to use him, despite drafting him in the third round in 2019. Until I see otherwise, I’m not confident that Harris is ahead of Burkhead on the Patriots’ depth chart, let alone a challenge to Michel. The Patriots can save almost $3 million by cutting Burkhead before the season, so if that happens, I’ll consider Harris as a late-round handcuff. However, if the Patriots keep all their running backs, Harris is a waste of time, coming in as my RB62.
Mohamed Sanu
If I barely care about Harry, I certainly don’t want Mohamed Sanu. The Patriots traded a second-round pick to the Falcons to acquire Sanu before the 2019 trade deadline and received little for that investment. In eight games for the Patriots, Sanu caught 26 of 47 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. He averaged an irrelevant 6.7 PPR points per game and never made it onto the fantasy radar in New England. As Sanu turns 31 in August, I don’t see him improving or making any impact in 2020. He just made it into the bottom of my rankings at WR75.
Jarrett Stidham
We know almost nothing about Stidham. In college, he began at Baylor before transferring to Auburn, starting as their quarterback in 2017 and 2018. While he played well in 2017, his numbers dropped across the board in 2018. Therefore, he fell to the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, where the Patriots selected him with the 133 overall pick.
Stidham attempted four passes in 2019, completing two of them for 14 yards and throwing an interception. Despite this non-existent track record, the Patriots failed to bring in a serious competitor to Stidham after Brady left in free agency, only signing Brian Hoyer as Stidham’s backup. While the Patriots consistently have links to Cam Newton, they haven’t signed him or even made a serious offer. Therefore, Stidham is currently the clear Week 1 starter for New England. Even so, I won’t even look at him in 1QB redraft formats, and he’s barely on my board in superflex leagues. Just ignore him, and you’ll do fine.
Everyone Else
The most intriguing player related to the Patriots is Cam Newton, who isn’t even on the team yet. While Newton isn’t the best passer, I still believe in him more than Stidham, so I’d have more confidence in the entire offense if the Patriots signed him. Also, Newton himself would be a fantasy streamer, at least, even with weak weapons.
On the roster, the Patriots don’t have any relevant or exciting dart throws. They signed veterans Marqise Lee and Damiere Byrd in free agency, but I have no confidence in either player. They also have a massive void at tight end, with only Matt LaCosse as a veteran presence there. They did draft Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but I wouldn’t rely on either as a rookie.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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