In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Saints.
High-End Assets
Alvin Kamara
In 2019, Kamara struggled through injuries, but he still finished as the RB9 in PPR formats. It was his third straight season as an RB1, as he was the RB3 in 2017 and RB4 in 2018. Kamara has been the model of consistency in the receiving game, recording exactly 81 receptions in each of his three seasons in the NFL.
Going into 2020, Kamara is fully healthy and should have quarterback Drew Brees for the entire season. Additionally, the Saints drafted center Cesar Ruiz in the first round, demonstrating a commitment to the offensive line. They also made no additions at running back to take carries from Kamara, and no high-profile additions to the receiving game to take targets away. Kamara only scored six total touchdowns in 2019, down from 18 in 2018 and 13 in 2017. I expect Kamara to have positive regression in the touchdown department while maintaining his receiving work, ranking him as my RB4 and fourth overall player.
Michael Thomas
Similar to Kamara, I expect Thomas to be a production monster in 2020. The entire Saints’ offense remains mostly unchanged from 2019, except that they should have Drew Brees at quarterback for all 16 games. Even if Brees gets hurt again, Jameis Winston is the new backup quarterback, who threw for over 5,000 yards in 2019 in Tampa Bay and supported two WR1s.
Thomas scored 374.6 PPR points in 2019, over 100 more than any other wide receiver, and over 50 more than any running back outside of Christian McCaffrey. However, the Saints did sign Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, which could take a few targets away from Thomas. Additionally, Thomas’ 2019 season was record-breaking, so it’s not realistic to expect that type of performance again in 2020.
If we knew that Thomas would put up that level of season, I’d rank him as the second overall player behind McCaffrey. Since some regression is likely, I have Thomas as my clear WR1 and my sixth overall player, behind the top tier of running backs. Also, replacing wide receiver production is easier to do later in drafts than replacing running back production. There are more usable WR3s and WR4s than RB3s and RB4s. With that said, if you want to play it safe and take Thomas at #2 overall, I can’t hate the pick too much.
Usable Contributors
Jared Cook
I previously looked back at Cook in my tight end avoids article. In that article, written before 2019, I predicted Cook to have a rough 2019 season and to disappoint fantasy owners based on a lack of targets. I was half-right as he only had 65 targets but managed to turn those into a TE7 finish. He did that on the back of touchdowns, scoring nine despite only having 43 receptions.
After the Saints signed Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, they finally have a reliable number two receiver opposite Michael Thomas. Therefore, I expect Cook’s targets to drop even further in 2020. Also, his touchdown production will regress as over 20% of catches being touchdowns is not sustainable. The Saints also drafted tight end Adam Trautman in the third round, which provides a bit of depth behind Cook. I reluctantly still rank Cook as my TE10, but I can’t imagine getting any shares of Cook in 2020. I’ll draft another running back or wide receiver in that range and grab a tight end later in drafts.
Latavius Murray
Murray is probably the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football. If anything happened to Kamara, Murray would rank as a weekly RB1 for the weeks that Kamara missed. The Saints made no acquisitions at running back, so the situation remains the same from 2019. Also, Murray finished as the RB29 in 2019 even though Kamara only missed two games.
In the two weeks Kamara missed, Murray had 27 and 21 carries, which he converted into 119 and 102 yards. He was the RB1 overall during those two games, so the high-end upside is there. When you draft Murray, you’re getting a low-end flex play with RB1 upside in the event of a Kamara injury. He only comes in as my RB45, though, since he doesn’t have much opportunity to grow in value without an injury.
Emmanuel Sanders
The Saints signed Sanders in free agency to a 2-year, $24 million contract.
Sanders will immediately step in as the WR2 behind Thomas, providing some stability to the Saints’ offense. Last year, Tre’Quan Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. split the WR2 role, but neither made a massive impact.
While the Sanders signing will be great for the Saints’ real-life offense, I don’t think that he will be great for fantasy. As part of the Broncos and 49ers in 2019, Sanders finished as the WR33, although he did play 17 games. In PPR fantasy points per game, Sanders was only 47th. When I’m drafting a receiver in that range, I would prefer to take a shot on someone with high-end upside. Unless you start a super-deep lineup or are in a super-deep league, I’ll look elsewhere for my WR5.
Drew Brees
Even though Sanders isn’t likely to help much in fantasy, he adds significantly to Brees’ floor as a fantasy quarterback. In 2019, Brees averaged 20.8 PPG, eighth among quarterbacks. He completed 74.3% of his passes and threw 27 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions.
I expect Brees to be solid once again in 2020, ranking him as my QB10. I would rank him higher, but Brees provides little to no rushing floor, having rushed for negative yards in 2019. Also, I have minor concerns that the Saints will use wildcat quarterback Taysom Hill in a slightly expanded role in 2020. If Hill steals redzone snaps, it could reduce Brees’ touchdown total. Either way, Brees is a safe choice in drafts, although since he’s a mid-range quarterback, I likely will have no shares based on my late-round quarterback strategy.
Dart Throws
The Saints don’t have any dart throws that particularly interest me in redraft for 2020. As discussed above, they have backup quarterback, Jameis Winston, and wildcat hybrid, Taysom Hill, on the roster behind Brees. If Brees goes down, I hope that the Saints see Winston as his backup since Hill is so unproven. Winston would continue to support the Saints’ fantasy options, even if he hurts the Saints as a team.
I would certainly avoid drafting Hill as a quarterback in fantasy. However, if he has tight end or flex eligibility on your platform, he could make a decent deep play. Hill finished fourth on the Saints in carries and caught 19 of his 22 targets, scoring six receiving touchdowns. I don’t expect him to have eligibility outside of quarterback on most platforms though.
Feel free to ignore the other Saints pass-catchers. They’re a top-heavy offense and will continue to pepper their stars, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, with targets. Tre’Quan Smith had his chance and failed in 2018 and 2019, and Adam Trautman is only a rookie tight end. While they’re fine as dynasty stashes, they mean nothing in redraft.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Titans, Cardinals, Bills
