Stefon Diggs: The Man, The Myth, and The Minneapolis Miracle
Stefon Diggs’s past production would normally dictate a much higher acquisition cost, but his recent move to Buffalo has him free-falling down draft boards. I don’t believe he should though. Let’s take a deeper look at why Diggs is now one of the most underappreciated dynasty assets this offseason.
The fifth-round pick out of the University of Maryland broke onto the fantasy football scene back in 2016, during his sophomore season, by finishing as a top 30 receiver. For the last three seasons, Diggs has finished as a WR 2 each year. A 26-year-old wide receiver with three top 24 finishes must be worth a pretty high draft pick in dynasty startups, right? Wrong. Diggs’s current ADP sits at 42 overall, and he’s going as WR 22.
I recently participated in a startup draft with 11 other analysts called the #ClashOfTheChannels (draft board here). After going running back heavy in the first few rounds, I selected Cooper Kupp as my first wide receiver in round four, and I was still able to select Diggs in round five as WR26, the 53rd player off the board. Stefon Diggs is a huge value in drafts right now.
Buffalo Bound
I’ve spent enough of this article gushing over how fantasy-relevant Stefon Diggs has been since he started his career in Minnesota. Now it’s time to look into why Diggs has an opportunity to continue his success in Buffalo. Talent, competition, and opportunity are the keys to production for wide receivers in fantasy. Let’s see how Diggs fares in his new home.
The Talent
Stefon Diggs has been one of the NFL’s most elite route runners over the past three years. You don’t have to take my word for it though. Read this excerpt from Matt Harmon’s annual Reception Perception series. It leaves no doubt that Diggs is an elite receiver in the NFL:
“In 2019 Stefon Diggs finished with a 76.5 percent success rate vs. man coverage, an 84.3 percent (a career-best) success rate vs. zone coverage and 79.1 percent (a career-best) success rate vs. press. He’s now finished above the 93rd percentile against man coverage for three-straight years. For the second-straight season, he went “full green,” by scoring above the NFL average success rate on every route on the tree. He is the best route runner in the NFL. Pair that strength with how good he is at tracking and winning passes in tight windows (81.3 percent contested catch rate), Diggs has everything you want in a top-of-the-line receiver. While moving to Buffalo might be a net-neutral or slight downgrade to his fantasy value, it was a smash real-life trade for the Bills. Diggs will pair with John Brown to give Josh Allen perhaps the league’s best route-running and separation duo.”
Harmon ends by mentioning that the move to Buffalo might be a “net-neutral or slight downgrade to his fantasy value”. This proves how even the most analytical minds are doubting the possibility of Diggs improving as a fantasy asset. Diggs is the best route runner in the NFL and no longer needs to compete for targets with Pro Bowler Adam Theilen.
The Competition
Buffalo made the playoffs last year giving Josh Allen a receiving arsenal composed of John Brown, who hadn’t gotten100 targets since 2015, Cole Beasley, who had never garnered 100 targets, and the combination of rookie running back Devin Singletary, and rookie tight end, Dawson Knox. John Brown is a very talented receiver. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception showed that Brown was above average in a majority of the route tree against press coverage, but let’s not pretend that Brown is as good as Diggs.
John Brown was mentioned in the profile as a second “true number one receiver”. He proved it last year on his way to his first 1,000-yard season since 2015, but when we look closely at some of the efficiency metrics, we see that Diggs beats Brown across the board in all of the following categories:
- Yards Per Catch: Diggs 17.9 vs Brown 14.7
- Catch Rate (True Catch Rate): Diggs 67.7% (81.8%) vs Brown 62.6% (78.3%)
- Yards Per Target: Diggs 12.1 vs Brown 9.2
- Yards Per Route Run: Diggs 2.97 vs Brown 2.46
- Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement: Diggs ranked 10th vs Brown ranked 19th
- Yards Above Replacement: Diggs ranked 8th vs Brown ranked 16th
The Bills also knew they were in “win-now” mode and that receiver was one of the biggest holes on the roster. Instead of investing in a receiver from a tremendously deep receiver class, they chose to trade their first-round pick for an established veteran. They knew they needed more than John Brown to lead their receiving core. Brown was able to finish as the WR 22 on a PPG basis as the alpha receiver in Buffalo’s offense. I expect Diggs to exceed that, in the long term, by being a better receiving option but by a large margin, in the short term, due to the shift in strength of schedule next season, which will open up more passing opportunities.
The Opportunity
In 2019, the Bills faced 11 opponents that finished .500 or worse. With such an easy schedule, they cruised to a 10-6 record by suffocating opposing offenses, allowing an NFL second-best 16.5 points per game. These two stats tend to lead people to the assumption that the Bills are a “ground and pound” team. That would be incorrect. Even with the polarizing quarterback play of Josh Allen, in neutral game situations (game was +/-3 points), the Bills were above the NFL average in passing rate at 58% (14th overall).
The Bills know they were able to win last year without many weapons on offense. With the fifth toughest strength of schedule in 2020, the front office went out and grabbed Allen some help. With the “run-first” narrative debunked and a tougher slate ahead, any thoughts of Stefon Diggs not having an opportunity to be a top fantasy option next year should be thrown out.
Josh Allen may fit Stefon Diggs even better than Kirk Cousins did. Intended air yards (IAY) can be used to see which quarterback is more willing to throw the ball deep down the field. Josh Allen had over 4,200 IAY while only completing 3,089 yards. Cousins, on the other hand, threw for 3,450 IAY, which was only 150 yards less than his total completed yards. Cousins’s stats proved that he preferred making short passes and letting his receivers rack up the YAC (yards after catch). Allen likes to give his receivers deep shots but either overthrew them or had his receivers drop the pass (Bills finished with the second most dropped passes in the league). It’s unclear if this was due to inaccuracy or lack of trust in his receivers.
I’m willing to bet on the latter due to his risk-averse decision making when dropping back to pass. Two stats show how risk-averse Allen is. The number of interceptable passes he threw, 15, ranked 20th. The number of danger plays (any play where a quarterback lacked awareness or took an unnecessary risk that could have led to a turnover), 16, ranked 29th. While the jury is still out on Allen, I assume that with a better receiver to throw to, he’ll throw more 50/50 balls and let Diggs make plays down the field.
Bringing it Home
We’ve established that Diggs has the talent and opportunity to lead the Bills receivers next year. We’ve also established that Diggs has a track record of being consistently fantasy-relevant over the past four years. He’s only 26 years old. He’s now the clear number one option after leaving Minneapolis, where he competed with Adam Theilen for targets. If Diggs firmly grasps that number one role, a 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown season may only be a floor. Things are lining up better than most are expecting for Diggs to have his biggest season yet. With his ADP dropping, now is the time to get Stefon Diggs. He’s the perfect player to seek out for a middle of the road team looking to take that next step or a contender looking to put themselves over the top!
Like my take on Stefon Diggs? Think I’m just Digg(s)ing my own fantasy team’s grave by trading for him? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter and let me know what you think!
