In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that our readers have something they can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Bills.
High-End Assets
The Bills don’t have any high-end assets in my mind. They have a committee approach at running back combined with a quarterback in Josh Allen that takes away red-zone work. While I expect Allen to take a further step forward in Year 3, I don’t think he nor any of his receivers will present high-end upside. However, they have many players I think could prove useful in 2020.
Usable Contributors
Stefon Diggs
I already wrote an article about Stefon Diggs this offseason as a reaction piece when the Vikings traded him to the Bills. In that article, I suggested that Diggs would experience a rise in value due to the trade. He finished as the WR20 in 2019 on only 94 targets, and I expect him to improve on that mark in Buffalo significantly. After all, Diggs had never been the clear number one receiver in Minnesota due to the presence of Adam Thielen.
However, after taking more time to consider the situation, Diggs ended up as just my WR22 in my redraft rankings. Allen attempted only 461 passes in 2019, 221 of which went to John Brown and Cole Beasley. While Diggs will step in for Brown as the top receiver, I don’t believe that Brown or Beasley will disappear. Beasley will still handle the slot, and Brown will play the outside role opposite Diggs. The Bills also drafted Zack Moss in the third round, a further commitment to establishing the run. Diggs concerns me from a redraft perspective, and I’d prefer to have him as a volatile, low-end WR2, not a WR1.
Devin Singletary
After the Bills drafted Devin Singletary in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, he had a successful rookie year. He played behind Frank Gore at first and then suffered an injury in Week 2, forcing him out until Week 7. By Week 9, Singletary became the definite starter, taking 14 or more carries in all but one of the remaining games. For the season, he had 151 carries for 775 yards and two touchdowns, good for a stellar 5.1 YPC. He also added receiving upside, catching 29 of his 41 targets for 194 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Singletary, they decided to replace Gore with a very similar player in Zack Moss. The Bills also spent a third-rounder on Moss, so they have plans to use Moss in tandem with Singletary. I’ll discuss Moss more below, but suffice it to say, he will take a bit out of Singletary’s upside. Also, Josh Allen receives regular usage in the red zone for Buffalo, so Singletary has less touchdown upside than other running backs. Because of this uncertainty, Singletary is only my RB26 in PPR formats.
Zack Moss
As mentioned above, the Bills spent a third-round pick on Moss in this year’s NFL Draft. Moss was a workhorse back at Utah, averaging 209 carries in his final three college seasons. He also contributed in the passing game, with an average of 22 receptions per season. While I think that Singletary will remain the lead back, Moss will still receive carries, especially around the goal line. He scored 38 touchdowns in college, so he’s undoubtedly competent at getting in the endzone. Moss is my RB43, so he’s only a target in deeper leagues or for zero-RB rosters. I won’t feel comfortable starting him at first, but he could challenge for a 50-50 split sooner rather than later.
Josh Allen
Allen took a big step forward in Year 2, improving his completion percentage from 52.8 to 58.8 and throwing 10 more touchdowns with three fewer interceptions year-over-year. His fantasy production depended on his rushing upside, as he scored nine rushing touchdowns on only 109 carries for 510 yards. He was the QB6 in 2019, and now he has a strong additional weapon in Diggs. However, he is still relatively inaccurate as a passer and needs to perform better if he’s going to be a real difference-maker in fantasy.
As with most quarterbacks, I don’t recommend spending an early pick on Allen. He’s just my 99th overall player, and I don’t believe that he possesses true high-end upside. I’ll probably pass on Allen in drafts and grab a quarterback with my last pick. I prefer to fortify my bench with running backs and wide receivers instead of picking Allen in the eighth or ninth round.
Dart Throws
John Brown
Brown led the Bills in 2019 with 115 targets, which he converted into 72 receptions for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns. He finished as the WR20, so he was a mid-to-low WR2. However, with the arrival of Stefon Diggs, there is no way that Brown even sniffs 115 targets. Diggs will easily outpace Brown and Beasley, Dawson Knox, and the running backs who will compete for additional targets. The Bills are still a run-first team, especially after adding Zack Moss, so I don’t want to roster any receiving option outside of Diggs. Allen is a great fantasy asset, but it comes from his legs, not his arm. I think Brown is just a dart throw, coming in as my WR58.
Cole Beasley
As discussed above, Beasley played the slot role in 2019 and found some fantasy relevance. He caught 67 of 106 targets for 778 yards and six touchdowns and finished as the WR34. While that finish was nice, I avoid drafting players like Beasley. Everything broke right for him in 2019, and he was still just a low-end WR3. My rankings are not projections but a representation of how I would draft my team. Therefore, I have Beasley as my WR69. Don’t draft him and leave him on waiver wires. If you need a midseason replacement due to byes or injuries, feel free to stream him, but he’s not draftable.
Dawson Knox
Knox flashed a bit of promise in 2019. In 15 games, he started 11 of them and caught 28 of 50 targets for 388 yards and two touchdowns. However, he finished third on the team in targets behind Brown and Beasley in 2019, whereas now I believe he’ll be the fourth target on the team at best. While Knox could break out in Year 2, he’s not someone I’ll draft. He needs to prove it to me on the field first.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans
