I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Falcons.
High-End Assets
Julio Jones
There’s no wide receiver that has the same track record in fantasy as Julio Jones does. Since 2014, he’s played 14 or more games in each season, so he shows up for fantasy owners every single year. Jones has had 83 or more receptions and 1,394 or more yards each year, and although he’s never scored more than eight touchdowns, he’s been a PPR force. He’s finished as the WR7 or better every year over that span, excelling in tandem with star quarterback Matt Ryan.
While Jones is entering his age-31 season in 2020, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. The Falcons can’t get out of his massive contract until 2022, so he’s not going anywhere in their offense. Even if teammate Calvin Ridley continues to step forward in 2020, there’s no way the Falcons will go away from Jones.
Going into 2020, the Falcons didn’t replace Mohamed Sanu, who they traded to the Patriots during 2019. They also failed to retain tight end Austin Hooper, who finished second on the team with 97 targets. While they brought in Hayden Hurst to replace Hooper, Hurst is unproven and might not have the same role as Hooper.
Therefore, Jones will be an absolute target hog in 2020, and he could easily see more than his 157 targets from 2019. Jones is my WR3 and 11th overall player. If Jones weren’t 31, he’d probably be my WR1 overall, even ahead of Michael Thomas. I only don’t have him that high as a slight hedge against a possible age-related decline.
Todd Gurley
Unlike Jones, I have significant concerns with Todd Gurley in 2020. As we all know, Gurley was the most valuable player in all of fantasy in 2017 and most of 2018. Near the end of 2018, Gurley’s arthritic knee started to fall apart, leading to a decline in performance down the stretch and in the playoffs. The Rams insisted that Gurley was fine health-wise after 2018, and Gurley was one of the most polarizing players going into 2019.
In 2019, Gurley played 15 of 16 games, but he wasn’t the same as before his injury woes. He finished as the RB14, with only 857 rushing yards and 3.8 YPC, although he still managed to score 12 rushing touchdowns. Most notably, the Rams dialed back Gurley’s passing-game usage, only giving him 49 targets compared to 87 and 81 targets the two previous seasons. It’s not clear why the Rams made this choice, as they didn’t target other running backs more in place of Gurley. Either way, Gurley didn’t make the fantasy impact as he had before.
After 2019, the Rams decided to part ways with Gurley and his massive contract. Gurley then signed with the Falcons in free agency to a 1-year, $5 million deal, who had just moved on from former starter Devonta Freeman. Gurley joins a barren backfield with unheralded backups Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison as his only competition. If the Falcons don’t add a significant veteran running back, I have no choice but to project Gurley for massive volume. I think he could reach 250-260 carries and could easily match Freeman’s 74 targets from 2019.
Even though Gurley comes with injury concerns, that’s his only issue for his fantasy stock. I can’t risk taking Gurley near the top of drafts, but I’m okay with him as an RB2. Gurley is my RB18 and 34th overall player. I still expect Gurley’s name value to raise his ADP above that point, so I probably won’t have any shares in my 2020 leagues.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is my version of 2019’s Chris Godwin. Yes, Ridley is the clear number two wide receiver on the Falcons behind Jones, and no, I don’t believe that Ridley will overtake Jones in 2020. However, considering the complete void of passing weapons on the Falcons and the pass-heavy style of Matt Ryan, there’s room for both Ridley and Jones to be WR1s.
In 2019, Ridley finished as the WR27, but he only played 13 games. He was 18th in PPR fantasy points per game, so he wasn’t that far off of a WR1 pace even last year. The Falcons vacated Hooper’s 97 targets and 42 targets from Mohamed Sanu. While Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage could fill those roles, I think that the Falcons will hyper-target their two best players in Jones and Ridley. Ryan threw 616 passes in 2019, and there’s plenty of room for Jones to get 160 targets and Ridley to have 130-150 targets.
If I knew Ridley would jump to that target level, I would project him as a WR1 in 2020. However, since I can’t be 100% sure what will happen, I have to hedge on Ridley’s ranking. He’s my WR17 and 39th overall player, still a high-end asset. I would love to have Ridley as my WR2 on any team, and maybe even as a high-upside WR1 if I started with two running backs and a top tight end. Don’t miss out on drafting Ridley just because he’s behind Jones. Hopefully, I convinced you not to make that mistake.
Usable Contributors
Hayden Hurst
I find Hurst’s journey so far in the NFL extremely intriguing. Hurst started as a baseball prospect, playing for a few years before deciding to switch to football. He played tight end at South Carolina and excelled. Even though he was an older rookie at 25 years old, the Ravens selected him in the first round with the 25th overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. They saw Hurst as their tight end of the future, as he brings both receiving and blocking skills to the table.
However, unfortunately for Hurst, a different tight end broke out in Baltimore. The Ravens also selected Mark Andrews in the third round of the same draft. Andrews rapidly became a star, relegating Hurst to mostly blocking work. Hurst struggled through a few injuries in 2018 before getting a chance to play in 2019. Even though Hurst played an identical snap share to Andrews, he only managed 30 receptions on 39 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens preferred Andrews as their top receiving weapon and Nick Boyle as their pure blocking tight end.
Based on Hurst’s talent coming into the NFL and the small flashes he showed in Baltimore, the Falcons decided to trade second-round and fifth-round picks to acquire Hurst and a fourth-rounder. Hurst immediately steps into Hooper’s old role as an all-around tight end, who will play the majority of snaps. I believe that Hurst is a far more capable blocker than Hooper, although he hasn’t proven the receiving upside Hooper showed in Atlanta. The move certainly makes sense for the Falcons, though, as they get a versatile player that can help in both the running and passing game.
As for Hurst’s fantasy value, it’s difficult to project him since we’ve never seen Hurst play a full-time, or any receiving role. Hooper finished as the TE6 in this offense in both 2018 and 2019, so I think that’s Hurst’s ceiling. However, I can’t assume that Hurst can handle a full receiving workload since I’ve never seen him do that. Therefore, I’ve compromised and ranked him as my TE13. I would like him as a late-round tight end flier if I missed out on the top tier players. He carries no name value, and I don’t expect him to go early in drafts, so he could be a bargain in 2020.
Matt Ryan
Since Ryan took over as the Falcons’ starter in 2008, he’s played 189 of a possible 192 games. While that durability is remarkable, it doesn’t matter much for the quarterback position, which is easily replaceable on a week-to-week basis. Amazingly, Ryan has thrown for 4,000 or more yards every year since 2011, so he’s been remarkably consistent in terms of passing yards.
However, both his touchdowns and interceptions have varied wildly year over year, as high as 38 in 2016 and as low as 20 in 2017. Because of that touchdown variance, Ryan finished as the QB2 in 2016 and 2018, but he was only the QB15 in 2017 and QB11 in 2019. As touchdowns are hard to predict, it’s hard to rank Ryan going into 2020.
Unfortunately, Ryan is one of those mid-tier quarterbacks I’ll probably never get on my roster. He’s my QB8, but he’s outside the top group of quarterbacks that I’m willing to pay up to acquire. He’s only my 120th overall player since I don’t think he’s a fantasy difference-maker. I like Ryan to make his fantasy weapons relevant far more than I like Ryan himself, mostly due to Ryan’s lack of rushing upside.
Dart Throws
The Falcons may be the most top-heavy team I’ve written about so far. The four non-QB fantasy assets are the only players I have any interest in for redraft formats. Russell Gage is their WR3, but I’m not expecting anything from him unless there’s an injury to Jones or Ridley. Gage is outside my draftable range.
The Falcons have a trio of backup running backs in Hill, Smith, and Ollison. However, I expect them to employ a three-way committee if Gurley goes down in-season. Therefore, I won’t draft any handcuffs to Gurley unless the Falcons bring in a superior veteran talent between now and the start of the NFL season. I suppose I would lean toward Smith on waivers in the event of a Gurley injury, but I think he’d be a flex play at best.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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