On the eve of Wild Card Weekend, I’ll provide a quick break down of all the players I think you can consider in your DraftKings lineups for the full four-game slate. You can also use it accordingly for the two-game slates if you’re playing those as well.
On a slate like this, build yourself a narrative about how you believe the games will go. More often than not, there’s no need to get super-weird and roster an entire lineup of off-the-board plays. It’s more beneficial to build a lineup with upside and then identify a few players that you believe are in far better spots than the rest of the field based on your narrative. On small playoff slates, rostering just one very low-owned player or fading a chalky one you don’t like can jump you over huge chunks of the field in GPPs.
Quarterbacks
Top Tier
Drew Brees ($6,600): For me, it’s death, taxes, and rostering Drew Brees at home. He’ll likely be the highest owned quarterback on the slate and I’ll still have more than the average. Since Week 1 of 2018, Brees has made 13 starts at home and is averaging over 27.5 DraftKings points per game over this span. He’s too cheap for what he brings in this spot.
Middle Tier
Russell Wilson ($6,800): Were he not priced higher than Brees, he might have made the upper tier. But as it is, he’s hard to pay up for. The argument here is that with a decimated backfield and injuries mounting on the defensive side of the ball, he’s got to put the team on his back. The problem is that there just may not be enough of a supporting cast left to allow him to do that.
Tom Brady ($5,800): Outside of a Week 16 win over Buffalo and the second half of a Week 13 win against the Texans in Houston, Brady has looked pretty terrible for about two months now. Still, the match-up against Tennessee’s secondary is a good one and we’re still talking about Tom Brady and New England in the postseason. Sure, this could be the beginning of the end, but we’ve also been here before. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Deshaun Watson ($6,400): My hot take this week is being very low on Watson. He’s obviously got as much upside as any quarterback on the slate, but the match-up for him just sets up terribly. The Bills can collapse the pocket and get after the passer, and Houston’s offensive line isn’t very good to start with. Watson himself struggles with pressure and will often make bad decisions or hold onto the ball too long, and the Bills secondary is talented enough to make him pay. He’s a guy that can break the slate with his dual-threat ability, but I’m of the opinion the Texans don’t even win this game.
Carson Wentz ($6,200): The fact that the Eagles are in the playoffs and that Wentz somehow managed to post very good numbers for the season is a testament to just how good he is. This team has been rolling out practice squad players and unproven rookies at the skill positions for months, and somehow still managed to win the division. The Seahawks came away with a 17-9 win when these teams hooked up in Philly in Week 12, and the possibility of another low scoring clunker here has me more interested in paying up or down from Wentz.
Josh Allen ($6,500): I wish Allen was a little bit cheaper because I do believe this is a very good spot for him, especially with his rushing upside. He’s averaged over 22 DraftKings points per game on the road this season. The only instance of an away game in which he really would have killed your lineup was at Pittsburgh in Week 15. On the flip side, the Texans have surrendered 23.2 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this season (4th worst) so I’ll still have some at the elevated tag.
Dart Throws
Kirk Cousins ($6,100): He’s a tournament flyer that probably only pays off if the Vikings-Saints game turns into a shootout and somehow manages not to turn into a blowout.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,300): It’ll be contrarian if you want to do it, but I’m probably not touching Tannehill on the road against the league’s best pass defense.
Running Backs
Top Tier
Alvin Kamara ($7,400): While the season as a whole was a let down for Kamara, over the last game and a half (he mostly sat out the second half of the Saints blowout Week 17 win) he has 119 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 19 carries and 8 catches on 10 targets for 48 yards through the air. He seems to be peaking at the right time and he’s the only back I have projected for 20+ DraftKings points this week.
Miles Sanders ($6,200): Sanders is reportedly a go for Sunday despite leaving last week’s game with an ankle sprain. While the match-up is solid, he’s more expensive than Boston Scott so the situation merits watching. If we get any indication he’ll be limited, then I’m leaning toward Scott, especially if the ownership is tilting in Sanders’ direction.
Dalvin Cook ($7,800): The Saints allowed just 3.65 yards per carry to opposing running backs on the season so the match-up is less than ideal. Still, they did surrender nearly six receptions per game to running backs this season so there is a path to a big Cook day here, especially if he can find the end zone. He’s not my favorite play this week, but I’d play him before what threatens to be a more popular Derrick Henry at a higher price tag.
Derrick Henry ($8,200): I get that Henry has been a beast in the second half, but it’s important to note that he’s been rolling up some really bad run defenses most weeks, and has also benefited from a number of positive game scripts. Neither should be the case here, as New England has allowed less than 93 rushing yards in five of their seven games since the Week 10 bye and is a five-point favorite at home. On the season, Henry averages less than two targets. There just aren’t that many ways he can justify his price unless you think the Titans are winning this football game and going to rush for 100+ and a couple of scores.
Devin Singletary ($6,000): His involvement in the offense in the second half is super encouraging, especially going against a very beatable Texans defense this week. But the ownership for Singletary has been creeping up all week and could wind up north of 25%. That doesn’t mean you should fade him entirely, but we are talking about a player who doesn’t get red zone touches and has topped 18 DraftKings points just twice this season.
James White ($5,700): The Titans are one of four teams that allowed more than six receptions per game to running backs this season. Additionally, they’ve allowed at least five catches to opposing running backs in five of their last seven games. With Edelman banged up and little experienced depth at the wide receiver position, Belichick could easily turn this into a James White game. Boundary receivers and pass-catching running backs are the best way to attack this defense and New England has deployed the latter expertly for about two decades now.
Middle Tier
Boston Scott ($5,800): Miles Sanders continues to deal with an ankle injury and even if he plays, is unlikely to be at 100%. Scott’s new price tier is less than comfortable, but he’s averaging better than 20 DraftKings points per game over the past month and the matchup is solid. It’s also reassuring that Pederson continued to roll with Scott after the first-half injury to Sanders in Week 17, as Howard played just one offensive snap last week so it would appear Scott’s role is solidified.
Travis Homer ($5,300): Playing running backs against the Eagles isn’t ideal, and the Seahawks backfield looks like a straight-up timeshare between Homer and Marshawn Lynch. If you’re looking for reasons to play him, he’s clearly the pass-catching back and it’s far easier to pass against Philly than run. He’s also a legitimate home run threat. One thing to watch out for with Homer is turnovers, as he was notorious for fumbling issues in college and Carroll just dealt with the Chris Carson saga all season. Homer won’t have that kind of leash.
Duke Johnson ($4,400): I’m willing to bet the Texans don’t just repeatedly run Carlos Hyde into a very good run defense all afternoon, which should lead to more snaps for Johnson. With both Will Fuller and Kenny Stills banged up, he could also see an increased role in the passing game and six to eight targets aren’t out of the question.
Marshawn Lynch ($5,200): Lynch is the thunder to Homer’s lightning, which puts him in a less than ideal spot against a formidable Eagles front. While I’d rather pay up $100 to get Homer’s upside, he’s certainly not without risk. If the rookie puts the ball on the ground, this could be Lynch’s backfield for the rest of the day.
Carlos Hyde ($5,100): Much like Lynch, the match up is pretty bad here for Hyde. That said, a turnover or two from Josh Allen and this could wind up a favorable game script that leads to heavier than expected usage and a couple of red-zone touches.
Dart Throws
Latavius Murray ($5,000): I could see the Saints deploying Murray as a clock killer late in this game if they’re looking to salt it away with a multi-score lead. Other than that, he needs to find the end zone to make it worth your while. Even then, the tag is tough to pay this week.
Sony Michel ($4,600): Michel has 18+ touches in each of his last three games, but Tennessee was a top ten DVOA run defense this season while struggling to defend the pass. Even more importantly they got smoked by pass-catching running backs and that’s not what Michel does. It’s hard not to like the price tag this week, but the match-up is pretty bad. I think I’d want to be on the other side of it if he winds up being highly owned.
Rex Burkhead ($4,500): He’s the Patriot wildcard this week, but the price tag is cost-prohibitive with respect to his usual tally of touches. He’s certainly a candidate to find the end zone through the air and/or on the ground, but you can’t play him outside of tournaments with his floor.
Dion Lewis ($4,200): While the revenge game narrative is nice, Lewis saw just one touch in a must-win game last week, even with the Titans prevailing by three touchdowns. It likely takes an injury to Henry or New England getting out to a massive lead early for him to see enough touches to be relevant.
Frank Gore ($4,100): He probably needs Devin Singletary to make a big mistake or two to see enough touches to matter this week. Fortunately for him, that’s not out of the realm of possibility for a rookie playing in his first playoff game and on the road. That said, I sort of wish he was under $4k since there’s no floor here.
Wide Receiver
Top Tier
Michael Thomas ($9,300): Thomas is the top wide receiver option this weekend and draws an excellent matchup against a Minnesota secondary that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points (DK scoring) to the position this season. He’s averaged over 30 DraftKings points at home this season, with his lowest output in the Superdome was nine receptions for 95 yards against Dallas in Week 4. Minnesota doesn’t have an answer and he’s the safest play on the slate
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700): Hopkins probably sees a lot of Tre’Davious White on Saturday, but it probably won’t matter. Will Fuller is a game-time decision and Hopkins has averaged more than a dozen targets and over 22 DraftKings points per game in the four contests in which he was active and Fuller was not this season. Give him a slight bump if Fuller sits.
Julian Edelman ($6,500): Edelman claims he’s feeling better than he has in some time, but he’s still playing hurt and the New England offense has looked out of sync for much of the second half of the season. Tennessee’s secondary is vulnerable to be sure, but slot corner Logan Ryan has been solid and it’s really the boundary corners and the linebackers who have struggled mightily in coverage this season. We know he’s not a big-play guy so he’s tough to roll out there in tournaments, but he’s still the WR1 for New England and it’s the playoffs.
Tyler Lockett ($7,200): Lockett is pricey for a guy that has only seen double-digit targets three times this season. But with the Seahawks backfield situation being what it is, one has to imagine his role will expand. That starts with this match-up against an Eagles defense allowing more than 41 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers this season.
John Brown ($6,000): Outside of Michael Thomas, Brown may be my favorite point per dollar receiver this weekend. We’ve seen the Texans get torched for big play after big play over the second half of the season. This plays to the strength of both Brown and quarterback Josh Allen, with the two hooking up for receptions of 30+ yards in four of their last six games, and four touchdowns over that stretch.
Stefon Diggs ($6,600): Over three career games (including the “Minnesota Miracle”) against the Saints, Diggs has totaled 23 receptions for 349 yards and four touchdowns. With that in mind, one would expect him to see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lattimore on Sunday. He’s not high on my cash game list, but if you’re building a bunch of tournament lineups then I think he needs to be in your player pool.
A.J. Brown ($7,400): Two weeks ago at Tennessee, Marshawn Lattimore shadowed Brown and absolutely took him out of the game so it would not be surprising at all to see the Patriots deploy top cover corner Stephon Gilmore in a similar fashion this week. Brown is far from a polished route runner, but his size-speed combination makes him a problem for defensive backs if and when he is able to get the ball in space. It’s safe to assume Belichick schemes to take him away, making him more viable as a contrarian tournament pivot off guys like Lockett or Hopkins.
Greg Ward ($5,200): I’m not even going to try to convince you that $5K+ for Greg Ward isn’t absolutely gross. It is. But as of Friday, Zach Ertz still hasn’t been cleared for contact and Nelson Agholor isn’t practicing, which makes Ward the most viable pass-catcher after Dallas Goedert and the running backs. He’ll see 8-10 targets, and if he finds the end zone, you’re in business.
Cole Beasley ($5,600): Beasley is essentially Greg Ward with upside. He’s averaging over eight targets per game since Week 12 and has scored a touchdown in three games and gone over 100 yards receiving twice. He’s pricey, but that matchup is good and I’ll probably have one of him or John Brown in a bunch of lineups.
Middle Tier
Adam Thielen ($6,200): I originally had Thielen in the group above, but I just can’t do it at this point. He’s looked out of sync in the offense since returning and the Saints have allowed 260 passing yards or less in nine of their last twelve games. I’d much rather have Brown for $200 less.
Will Fuller ($4,900): Fuller is a guy with a bad history when it comes to soft tissue injuries and he’s questionable to return from his second one of the season on Saturday. If he is, in fact, healthy and good to go then he’s a high risk, high reward play that could certainly break the slate, but could also be done by halftime. No thanks!
DK Metcalf ($6,100): He’s a boom-bust play similar to Fuller, but Seattle will likely struggle to run the ball and a good match-up against a porous Eagles secondary gives him a much higher ceiling. His dozen targets in Week 17 also stands out and is especially attractive with both teams so banged up and what is just a one-point spread heading into the weekend.
Mohamed Sanu ($3,900): Sanu played 70 of 73 snaps in New England’s Week 17 loss to Miami, and is averaging 6 targets per game over the last three weeks. Finally healthy, he should continue to see similar snaps and targets, which makes him feel just too cheap at this price.
Kenny Stills ($4,600): He needs Fuller to be out to justify a play at this price, but even then he hasn’t exactly killed it this season when he’s been the direct replacement. Further depressing his value is the fact that it looks like Tre’Davious White won’t shadow DeAndre Hopkins. That doesn’t bode well for Stills, who should be popular.
Dart Throws
Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000): Smith and Ginn eat into each other’s value, splitting time, and clearly the fourth option in the passing game when they’re on the field. That said, Smith has been a reliable red-zone target in recent weeks, which coupled with his big-play ability gives him some upside at this price.
Corey Davis ($3,800): One of my favorite sub-$4K receivers, I expect the New England defense to scheme to take away A.J. Brown and contain Derrick Henry. That should lead to 6 to 8 targets for Davis, who scored two touchdowns when these teams met in the playoffs last season. He can do plenty here as a secondary option with that volume.
Isaiah McKenzie ($3,500): If you think the Texans are going to smash at home (I don’t) then McKenzie makes some sense as the Bills WR3. The price tag gives you salary relief and if Buffalo is playing from behind he’ll get 4 to 6 targets and has some big-play ability.
N’Keal Harry ($4,100): With New England playing for home-field advantage, Harry saw seven targets in Week 17, giving him 14 over the past three games, to go along with five rushing attempts over that span. Assuming he continues to be utilized in that manner it gives him a bit of a floor in what is a very good matchup. Tennessee has struggled with bigger boundary receivers this season, and Harry certainly fits that bill. There’s a lot to like at this price tag.
David Moore ($3,400): Moore is a salary saver with the deep speed to get over the top of the Eagles very bad secondary. Since Week 12 he has three receptions of 20+ yards on what essentially amounts to a couple of targets each game.
Tajae Sharpe ($3,800): Sharpe has less upside than teammate Corey Davis, but he’s going to run out of the slot and could be the wide receiver New England is willing to cede targets to in this match-up. He’s a low ceiling play, but there’s a floor here if Tennessee is playing from behind.
Ted Ginn Jr. ($3,600): Always a boom-bust threat, Ginn can get on top of this price tag in a single play on that quick Superdome turf. That said, he and Tre’Quan Smith have been sharing the WR2 role in the latter part of the season, and Smith has established himself as the superior and more trusted red-zone weapon over the final month.
Jakobi Meyers ($3,100): Meyers failed to draw a target in two of New England’s final three games. With the wide receiver corps looking healthier than they have in some time heading into Wild Card weekend, he looks like the odd man out at the moment. He’s an easy fade.
Phillip Dorsett ($3,200): His big-play ability puts him on the radar in tournaments against a Tennessee secondary that has struggled to contain field stretchers at times this season. But at this point, he appears to be fourth or fifth in the wide receiver pecking order and had a couple of bad drops in Week 17 against Miami.
Keke Coutee ($3,300): While fellow wideouts DeAndre Carter and Steven Mitchell each played on all of the Houston offensive snaps in a meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee, Coutee logged only 39 (60%) after sitting out Week 16, which suggests the Texans may have held him back a bit. With Will Fuller’s status in doubt, Coutee should be the WR3 if he sits and becomes borderline unplayable as anything more than a salary relief dart throw in tournaments if Fuller gives it a go.
Tight End
Top Tier
Dallas Goedert ($5,200): Ertz looks questionable at best for Sunday and Goedert faces a Seahawks defense that allowed 15.7 DraftKings points to tight ends in the regular season. Only Arizona finished worse against the position. Goedert is still too cheap for his role and he’s tough to fade even in tournaments if Ertz sits.
Jared Cook ($4,900): Since Brees’s return, Cook has at least 11 DraftKings points in every game but one. He’s the third option in the offense behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and the touchdown upside is limited here against a Vikings team that allowed just one to tight ends during the regular season. Still, at sub $5K, he has one of the safer floors at the position.
Middle Tier
Jacob Hollister ($4,300): The matchup isn’t great, but Hollister has six targets or more in six of his last eight games and the Seahawks are running out of healthy weapons for Wilson to throw to. He doesn’t have the upside of a Goedert or Cook and only came up with a pair of catches for 22 yards when these teams met in November so don’t expect a lot.
Kyle Rudolph ($3,500): His upside is muted with Adam Thielen’s return and a healthy Dalvin Cook, but if the Vikings get down multiple scores he could be one of the beneficiaries in garbage time.
Jonnu Smith ($3,800): Smith’s zero targets last week will probably keep the ownership down, but prior to that he had three straight weeks with double-digit DraftKings points. And for as good as the New England secondary has been, tight ends have found some success against this team.
Dart Throws
Darren Fells ($3,000): Fells came out of nowhere to log seven touchdowns on the season and quietly put together 34 catches for 341 yards. Unfortunately for him, the Bills allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to tight ends during the regular season, and the Texans are going to need all the help they can get in pass protection.
Dawson Knox ($2,900): Knox doesn’t have a large role in the offense, but he has seen four targets in three of his last four games and faces a Texans team that has been absolutely torched by tight ends for big plays of late.
Jordan Akins ($2,800): Akins is in a similar spot to Fells, but with less touchdown equity and at a $200 discount.
Josh Perkins ($2,900): If Ertz sits, Perkins is a good punt option against Seattle playing the TE2 position for Philadelphia. With Ertz out last week, he saw six targets and caught four of them for 50 yards and a score.
Defense
I think you can slot in whatever defense fits from a salary standpoint and the only defense I’ll really try to avoid altogether is Minnesota.
Top Tier
New England ($3,400): After last week’s embarrassing loss I’m expecting a bounce-back effort from the league’s best defense over the course of the regular season. Let someone else make the mistake of buying into the narrative of a floundering Patriots team after last week’s loss.
Middle Tier
New Orleans ($3,000): Cousins going into New Orleans as more than a touchdown underdog feels like a recipe for disaster, especially when he’s probably going to have to shoulder a lot of the offense himself.
Dart Throw
Houston ($2,600): I like the Bills as well for all the reasons I mentioned about Deshaun Watson above, but it’s not like Josh Allen doesn’t turn the ball over, even in his good games.
Good luck this week!
The views expressed above are my own personal takes on the games and strategies I’ve highlighted and I may sometimes play on the platforms and in the games on which I offer advice. With that in mind, please note that I also may employ different players, tactics, and strategies than what I have recommended here.
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