In this article series, I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Chiefs.
High-End Assets
Travis Kelce
There is simply nobody safer than Travis Kelce in your fantasy drafts. He has finished as the TE1 in each of the last four seasons and has the best quarterback in football in Patrick Mahomes. He’s missed one total game in those four seasons, so he’s also durable. Even though Kelce will turn 31 years old during the season, I haven’t noticed any decline in Kelce’s game over the past few years.
The scariest part is that Kelce finished as the TE1 by over 30 points in 2019 while Mahomes missed two games. Also, Kelce scored only five touchdowns despite recording 1,229 yards and 97 receptions. Therefore, Kelce could be in line for positive touchdown regression and could finish even better in 2020.
After analyzing my dismal 2019 tight end streaming performance in this article, I have decided that going forward, I will try my hardest to grab one of the top tight ends. Therefore, Kelce is a first-round redraft pick for me, coming in 11th in my rankings. If I’m drafting around the turn, I would love to start my draft with a running back and Kelce, since the value at wide receiver falls in the draft.
Tyreek Hill
Unlike Kelce, Tyreek Hill isn’t the type of player I’d describe as safe. He missed four games in 2019 with a severe chest injury and also always has his off-field issues hanging over him in the background. While it’s unlikely those issues will come up in the middle of a redraft season, I will always slightly downgrade Hill due to that.
However, Hill also plays with Mahomes and has a three-year history of success in the NFL and for fantasy. Even in PPR formats, Hill finished as the WR9 in 2017 and the WR3 in 2018. In 2019, he was the WR11 in PPR points per game in the 12 games he played. The most significant risk with Hill is that his targets aren’t as high as other top receivers. In his best season in 2018, Hill had only 137 targets, 11th among wide receivers. Therefore, if Hill loses some of his trademark efficiency, his floor is lower than other options in his range.
Based on the totality of Hill’s profile, he stacks up as my WR5. I’ve placed him behind the group of target hogs in Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins, but he has enough upside to be the next receiver after them. However, since there are a few running backs and Kelce I’d prefer over Hill, he’s only 14th on my redraft board. With that said, I’d be completely comfortable with Hill as my WR1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Out of all the Chiefs’ high-end players, I think that Edwards-Helaire is the most interesting and the one who deserves the most discussion. The Chiefs drafted Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, making him the first running back off the board. Edwards-Helaire joins a backfield that includes the previous starter Damien Williams, free-agent signing DeAndre Washington, and last year’s depth pieces Darwin Thompson and Darrel Williams.
Given Damien’s performance in the playoffs and Edwards-Helaire’s draft capital, I think those will be the only two running backs to receive relevant work, assuming both players remain healthy. The main question is: what will the split be between the two backs? The Chiefs have said that Damien will remain the starter, and Edwards-Helaire will work in with him.
However, I don’t believe that. I’ve written about Edwards-Helaire numerous times, most recently in my breakdown of the top redraft players. In that and my other work, I’ve stated and still currently believe that Edwards-Helaire will get most of the work and therefore has as much upside as any running back in fantasy. Since we haven’t seen him play in the NFL, I can’t rank him too high, but he’s currently my RB13 and 21st overall player in my rankings. He will catch lots of passes like he did at LSU and has a safe PPR floor.
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes has been the definition of solid since he became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018. In 2018, he was the clear QB1, finishing with 26.1 fantasy points per game, almost four more than any other quarterback. Even in 2019, when he missed two games, he was still the QB8 and finished sixth in fantasy points per game. Since he threw 50 touchdowns in 16 games in 2018 but only 26 in 14 games in 2019, Mahomes is in line for significant positive touchdown regression in 2020. I project him around 37 passing touchdowns, especially since he has a new receiving weapon in Edwards-Helaire.
I think we all agree that Mahomes is a top-two quarterback in redraft formats, competing with Lamar Jackson for the top spot. Since my rankings are for four-point passing touchdowns, Mahomes slots in as the QB2 and at 40th overall. In six-point passing touchdown formats, Mahomes would be the QB1 and would be higher in my rankings. Either way, I support a late-round quarterback strategy, so I don’t expect to have Mahomes on any of my redraft teams. I know that he’ll go in the top three rounds in almost every league, and I’m not willing to take him there.
Usable Contributors
Damien Williams
As discussed above, Williams is one of the two running backs I expect to have relevant touches in the Chiefs’ offense, along with Edwards-Helaire. At worst, Williams is the best handcuff in fantasy football, as he would be an immediate RB1 if Edwards-Helaire went down. However, unlike other top handcuffs like Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, and Chase Edmonds, I expect Williams to get a bit more work even with Edwards-Helaire healthy. While Edwards-Helaire is the starter, Williams will at least spell him, especially early in the season. Therefore, I have Williams as my RB39.
Dart Throws
Sammy Watkins
I believe that Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense can support a second usable wide receiver on top of the trio of studs: Kelce, Hill, and Edwards-Helaire. The problem is that I think that role might end up spread across a bunch of players, none of whom end up as fantasy-viable. In 2019, Sammy Watkins started on fire, with nine receptions for 198 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. Additionally, Hill went down in that game with an injury, allowing Watkins to play as the WR1 for a few weeks.
Unfortunately for Watkins, he never had more than seven receptions or 64 yards in any other game in 2019 and didn’t score another touchdown in the regular season. He totaled only 52 receptions on 90 targets and 673 yards across the whole season. After the regular season, most thought the Chiefs would move on from Watkins after the 2019 season.
However, in the playoffs, Watkins stepped up, catching 14 of 18 targets for 288 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ playoff run. This strong performance likely led the Chiefs to retain Watkins for 2020 as he made several clutch plays when it mattered. With that said, Watkins has been extremely frustrating to own in fantasy, and I can’t recommend drafting him in redraft formats. He’s my WR49. Since he finished as WR50 in PPR in 2019, WR49 seems entirely fair.
Mecole Hardman
Mecole Hardman presents more upside than Watkins since he’s a young player that could still improve as a receiver. However, unless Hardman can get more playing time, it’ll be hard to rely on him in redraft. He only had 41 targets in a part-time role in 2019, although he converted those limited touches into 26 receptions for 538 yards and six touchdowns.
The Chiefs re-signed both Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, so I can’t necessarily project Hardman to get more snaps in 2020. Hardman would be an excellent best-ball flier since he has big-play weekly upside, but in redraft, he’s only my WR59. It’s always hard to put someone in my lineup that has an excellent chance to put up zero points on any given week. If I’m wrong about Hardman and he does get starter-level snaps, he’s someone I’ll look for on waivers, just not in drafts.
The Rest
As this is the best offense in the league, anybody who gets significant targets or playing time has the chance at fantasy relevance. Robinson is the Chiefs’ fourth receiver who made a small splash in 2019. The Chiefs gave him $2.3 million on a one-year fully guaranteed deal, so they at least see him as a rotational piece. Robinson played ahead of Hardman in 2019 but didn’t record much on the stats sheet. Even so, you have to know Robinson’s name in case anything happens to Hill and Watkins.
In 2018, Damien Williams came out of nowhere to fantasy stardom after starter Kareem Hunt’s release and backup Spencer Ware’s injury. I believe that DeAndre Washington is the third running back on this depth chart, but he’s clearly behind Edwards-Helaire and Williams. However, any starting running back on the Chiefs would be at least an RB2, so keep that in mind.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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