In this series, I’m looking at the backup quarterback landscape with a focus on dynasty superflex formats. In those leagues, having a starting quarterback is extremely valuable, so many backups are rostered, with the number depending on how deep the league is. Keep in mind that the backup listed here is the backup in dynasty value, not necessarily the backup on the NFL roster. In part one, I examined the top tier of dynasty backups, the potential future long-term starters. Let’s jump into the second tier. Unlike the first tier, this second group consists of a varied and diverse set of quarterbacks.
Tier 2 – A Mixed Bag
Nick Foles/Mitchell Trubisky
Of all the quarterback situations going into 2020, this is the only one where I currently see real competition for the Week 1 starting job. Therefore, I feel it’s important to discuss both players. In my first ever offseason reaction article, I broke down the initial impact of the Nick Foles trade to Chicago. At that point, I expected Mitchell Trubisky to be the Week 1 starter based on Bears’ general manager Ryan Pace’s commitment to him.
However, I also noted that Foles was the slightly superior quarterback over his career compared to Trubisky. While the difference was small overall, Foles had far fewer turnovers and also brings a track record of playoff success that Trubisky can only dream of having. Since I wrote that article in mid-March, I have changed my opinion on the Bears’ projected Week 1 starter.
In any format, when playing fantasy football, one of the most valuable and most underrated tools you can use to help your game is betting odds. In general, nobody is better at predicting outcomes than Vegas books. No matter how much we think we know as analysts, they always know more than we do, since their odds come from some information that the public doesn’t have in its entirety. At both FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, they have a prop bet on who starts Week 1 for the Bears. The odds are essentially the same at both books, and they imply that Foles is approximately a 70% favorite to start Week 1.
Let’s assume that the sportsbooks are correct and that Foles is the Bears’ starter. In that case, Trubisky would be the backup going into 2020. The Bears already declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option for 2021, so he will be a free agent after this season. If Foles wins the Week 1 job, Trubisky is not in Chicago’s long-term plans. However, I think he’s shown enough to get a stable backup job, at least.
I’d feel comfortable throwing a late-2nd round pick at the Trubisky owner to try and acquire him. At that price, he only comes with upside and would pay off big time if he got another starting gig. We’ve seen many quarterbacks go from starter to backup to starter, including Trubisky’s teammate Foles doing just that on multiple occasions. However, I’d wait to buy until Foles is declared the Week 1 starter. At that point, Trubisky’s price and value will plummet, and he’ll present the greatest upside with the least downside at that point.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles drafted Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft with the 53rd overall pick. However, the Eagles already have a long-term starting quarterback in Carson Wentz. The Eagles recently signed Wentz to a massive contract extension through the 2024 season. As I’ve discussed many times, though, it’s the dead cap and guaranteed money that matters. The Eagles are 100% locked into this deal through 2021, as they would eat $59 million in dead cap by moving on from Wentz before that point. Even in 2022, they would only save $7 million by cutting Wentz, leaving behind $24 million in dead cap.
Based on the contract situation, I don’t believe that the Eagles see Hurts as a replacement for Wentz. Hurts’ rookie deal totals about $6 million over four years, so he’s an excellent insurance policy if Wentz goes down again. I believe that Wentz’s durability concerns are overblown, as he’s only missed eight of 64 possible games. Unfortunately, he’s ended each of the last three years on an injury, so I understand that leaves a bad taste in the mouth of both Eagles’ management and fantasy owners. Either way, I don’t consider Wentz to be “injury-prone” or to have any current health concerns, so speculating on future injuries is relatively pointless.
Even though Hurts’ potential opportunity is mostly out of his hands, he could bring a significant upside to the table if he did get a chance to play. Hurts had a distinguished college career for Alabama and Oklahoma. Hurts started for the Crimson Tide in 2016 as a true freshman, completing 62.8% of his passes, throwing for 2,780 yards and 23 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. He also added an impressive 191 carries for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Then in 2017, Hurts remained the starter. His completion percentage declined to 60.4%, but he still threw for 2,081 yards and 17 touchdowns versus only one interception. He also continued his strong rushing performance, with 154 carries for 855 yards and eight touchdowns. However, Alabama benched Hurts in favor of Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the national championship game in a stunning turn of events. Tagovailoa went on to lead the team to a win and took over the starting job in 2018. Hurts only saw spot duty in 2018, with only 70 pass attempts all season.
In 2019, Hurts decided to transfer to Oklahoma to take over the starting quarterback position from the departing Kyler Murray. There, he blossomed into a real star. He raised his completion rate to 69.7% and threw for a whopping 3,851 yards. He also set a career-high in touchdown passes with 32 and threw just eight interceptions. Most notably, he had 233 carries for 1,298 yards and 20 touchdowns. In any other year, Hurts would have been a shoo-in for the Heisman Trophy, only losing to Joe Burrow’s historic season.
Based on his rushing upside, if Hurts ever receives an opportunity to play, he will immediately present fantasy QB1 potential. He is one of the best rushing quarterback prospects of all time and is no slouch as a passer. The problem is that he might never get the chance to start in the NFL. If Wentz stays healthy, Hurts could never break out. I’d have to wait until the early third-round to take Hurts, and I’ll probably look at other options in superflex leagues. Waiting three or four years for Hurts to get a chance to play is too long for me.
Tyrod Taylor
Unlike Trubisky and Hurts, I have much less to say about the next two players. Starting with Tyrod Taylor, he’s had an interesting NFL career. He started his career in Baltimore, where he played as a backup from 2011-2014. After that, he signed a low-value, three-year contract with the Bills. Eventually, he became the starter in the 2015 training camp, starting at least 14 games for the next three seasons.
As a fantasy quarterback, Taylor was the QB15 in 2015, QB8 in 2016, and QB16 in 2017, so he’s bounced around the edge of QB1 territory. On a per-game basis, Taylor was successful, finishing eighth in 2015, ninth in 2016, and 19th in 2017. He was reliable, but not flashy, with his rushing upside providing his fantasy floor despite mediocre passing numbers.
After 2017, the Bills decided to move on from Taylor in favor of Josh Allen. Taylor signed with the Browns as a bridge quarterback to Baker Mayfield. He started three games, but suffered a concussion in Week 3, relinquishing the starting job. We’ll never know how long Taylor would’ve hung on, but Mayfield never gave him another chance. Taylor rode the bench for the rest of the season.
In 2019, Taylor signed a 2-year, $11 million contract with the Chargers to back up Philip Rivers. He received no starts and threw only six passes all season in the backup role. However, after 2019, the Chargers decided to move on from Rivers and go in a different direction. They still have Taylor on the roster and added Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
In a way, Taylor finds himself in a similar situation to 2018, as the bridge quarterback to a highly drafted rookie. Unlike 2018, though, Herbert isn’t the same level of a prospect as Mayfield. I think Herbert isn’t ready to be a starter in the NFL, at least not at first. Taylor will almost certainly be the Week 1 starter, especially with the shortened offseason due to the current pandemic. Right now, I think Taylor is more capable as an NFL quarterback than Herbert.
Taylor turns 31 in August and isn’t a long-term solution, so it’s just a question of his 2020 value. The Chargers have significant receiving weapons, with a reliable tight end in Hunter Henry and two excellent receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They also have one of the best receiving backs in Austin Ekeler. Since Taylor can presumably still succeed on the ground, he should be fantasy-viable for as long as he plays. I expect the Chargers to stick with Taylor if they’re winning and go to Herbert if they’re losing. I’d pay an early third-round pick to get Taylor on my team.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick is the ultimate spot starter. Outside of a short period with the Bills, no team has considered Fitzpatrick as their franchise quarterback in his 15-year career. While he’s had periods of both real-life and fantasy success, I’m most interested in what he did with the Dolphins in 2019.
Last year, Fitzpatrick played 15 games and started 13 of them. He threw for 3,529 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, finishing as the QB17 and 20th in points per game among quarterbacks. The Dolphins haven’t changed their skill position players too much, with DeVante Parker as the top receiver, Mike Gesicki at tight end, and Preston Williams as their WR2. They replaced their amalgamation of running backs with the pair of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, but that shouldn’t affect Fitzpatrick much.
Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick begins the season with a brutal two-game stretch with games at New England and versus Buffalo. Therefore, I expect him to struggle early on in the season. As the Dolphins spent the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Tua Tagovailoa, I believe they will start him as soon as he is healthy. Fitzpatrick will turn 38 years old in November and has no long-term upside for the franchise.
Similarly, he has no upside for your superflex dynasty rosters. If you need a spot starter for the beginning of the season on a contending roster, I guess I’d pay a 2021 third-round pick for Fitzpatrick, but I’m concerned that he’s going to start fewer games than we thought initially. Tagovailoa’s injured hip seems to be better than initially projected, and he claims that he will be ready in time for Week 1. Therefore, I’d probably fade Fitzpatrick, as I think that a healthy Tagovailoa is a superior quarterback right now, unlike the Chargers’ situation with Taylor and Herbert.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
