This piece will cover the dynasty impact of the recent trade of Nick Foles from the Jaguars to the Bears. Let’s jump right in.
The Trade
After deciding to go forward with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback, the Jaguars were looking to trade former starter Nick Foles. After searching for a few weeks, they settled on the Bears as a trade partner. The Jaguars received the 140th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a compensatory fourth-rounder, in exchange for Foles.
Foles vs. Trubisky
Based on just the money, one would expect Foles to be the Bears’ 2020 starter. Foles will receive $15.625 million from the Bears in 2020, while Trubisky will earn just $9.327 million. However, money is not the only part of the equation.
Bears GM, Ryan Pace, traded significant capital in the 2017 NFL Draft to trade up and select Trubisky second overall. It seems like both Pace, and head coach Matt Nagy, have bet their jobs on Trubisky’s success. Therefore, I believe that whether it’s the correct choice or not, Trubisky will get the first crack to start in 2020. In my opinion, we are heading for the same situation that Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill were in for the 2019 season. Trubisky will get every opportunity to prove himself as the starter, but if he continues to fail, the Bears will not hesitate to make a mid-season quarterback change.
Even though Trubisky starting is what I believe will happen, that’s a different question from what should happen. Let’s put Trubisky’s and Foles’ career passing numbers side-by-side and compare them.
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Looking at these numbers, Foles comes out slightly on top. Trubisky completes slightly more of his passes and throws a few more yards per game, but Foles outperforms him in every other category. Most notably, Foles takes far better care of the football, taking far fewer sacks and throwing many fewer interceptions.
Additionally, Foles has performed well in the playoffs. In his six playoff starts, Foles threw 11 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. He threw 272.2 passing yards per game, completed 68.1% of his passes, and raised his passer rating to 98.8. Given that Trubisky has only started one playoff game, factoring in playoff performance gives a further edge to Foles.
Overall, I think that neither Trubisky nor Foles is the real solution to the Bears’ quarterback issue. Trubisky has just 2020 left on his contract unless the Bears pick up his 2021 fifth-year option. Considering that option will cost more than $20 million, I cannot see the Bears’ exercising it. Therefore, Trubisky will likely become an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season.
Also, as part of the trade, Foles agreed to restructure his contract. Foles can now opt-out of his deal after either 2020 or 2021. If Foles becomes the starter and succeeds, he will likely opt-out to seek an increased contract. On the other hand, if Foles fails, he can be cut after 2020 with no dead cap hit to the Bears. Therefore, I don’t see Foles on the Bears after 2020 either. I expect the Bears to then seek a new quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft, where hot prospects such as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will be available.
I would not advise buying either Foles or Trubisky in dynasty formats, as I think both players represent a short-term play. Neither quarterback is relevant in 1 QB formats. In superflex formats, I would value Trubisky around an early 2nd round rookie pick and Foles around a late 2nd. Even at that low value, I’d prefer to go in a different direction.
What’s Left Behind in Jacksonville?
Now that Foles is gone, Gardner Minshew is the unquestioned starting quarterback, at least for 2020. The Jaguars will pay Minshew less than $1 million per year for the next three years on his rookie contract. Unfortunately for Minshew, the Jaguars seem to be offloading all of their talented players. In addition to Foles, they also traded star defensive players, A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell. They are also likely to deal disgruntled defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, who is in a franchise tag standoff with the front office.
Even though the trades have been on defense so far, I could see the Jaguars extending this approach to the other side of the ball. While top receiver D.J. Chark is safe, the Jaguars could trade depth veteran receivers Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, or Dede Westbrook. Additionally, they could look to move on from fourth-year running back Leonard Fournette.
Therefore, while Minshew is the starter for 2020, I don’t love his long-term outlook. If the Jaguars are rebuilding, they could look to acquire a more talented rookie quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. They will likely have an early pick in that draft, so they will be well-placed to select either Lawrence, Fields, or another quarterback. Since he at least has short-term security, I have to value Minshew at a late 1st rookie pick value in superflex formats. I would buy him at that price for a contending dynasty team but avoid him for a rebuilding squad. Minshew’s sixth-round draft capital makes him replaceable at any time.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
