I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Buccaneers.
High-End Assets
Chris Godwin
I just wrote about Chris Godwin for the dynasty department, where I recommended buying into Godwin in dynasty and redraft formats. I won’t rehash everything I said in there, but suffice it to say, Godwin is already a star with room to grow. In 2019, Godwin had his breakout year with 86 receptions on 121 targets for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns in only 14 games played, finishing as the WR2.
The Buccaneers have gone through significant changes going into 2020, replacing gunslinger Jameis Winston with the more conservative Tom Brady. While I don’t expect Brady to match Winston’s 5,109 passing yards from 2019, he will undoubtedly throw fewer than Winston’s 30 interceptions and provide added efficiency to the passing game. Brady also still threw 4,057 yards with horrible receivers in 2019, so it’s not like he didn’t throw the ball.
Going into 2020, Godwin can excel no matter how he fits into the offense. After signing Rob Gronkowski, head coach Bruce Arians said that their base offense would be 12 personnel, with two tight ends and two wide receivers. In 2019, Godwin played half his snaps from the slot, which would change in a base-12 offense with no slot receiver.
However, I think the Buccaneers will still use three wide receivers on obvious passing downs, allowing Godwin to operate from the slot. Brady has a great history of using slot receivers like Julian Edelman or Wes Welker, but Godwin is far more talented than either of them. Godwin will have no trouble playing from the outside, as he was great in 2019 both outside and from the slot.
I have Godwin as my WR5 and 15th overall in my redraft rankings. He’s a solid WR1, and I have no hesitation using my second-round pick on Godwin after taking a top running back in the first round.
Mike Evans
Unlike Godwin, I have some concerns about Mike Evans for 2020. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Evans has been one of the top receivers for both fantasy football and the Buccaneers since he entered the NFL in 2014. Evans has recorded 1,000 or more receiving yards in every season and has played well with a few different quarterbacks, including Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Josh McCown.
Evans only finished as the WR15 in 2019, but he only played 13 games. Even in a shortened season, he caught 67 of 118 targets for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Evans averaged 17.9 PPG, fifth among fantasy receivers, behind Michael Thomas, Godwin, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins.
In 2020, Evans will play almost exclusively as an outside receiver, as in the past. He will be 27 years old going into the season, so he’s in the prime of his career and should have another solid season. While I think his production will decline slightly from his 2019 pace, I still have Evans as my WR7. Evans comes with more risk than Godwin, and he’s down in the next tier of receivers in my rankings, at 22nd overall. I think the fantasy community is sleeping on Evans a bit, and I expect to have him on some of my teams in 2020.
Usable Contributors
Ronald Jones
Of all the muddy backfields in 2020, the Buccaneers’ backfield is the least clear in the entire NFL. The range of outcomes includes everything from Ronald Jones as the clear lead back to the same for his teammate, Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I think Jones has a slightly better shot, but let’s take a look at why I feel that way.
The Buccaneers drafted Jones in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft with the 38th overall selection. While most expected Jones to replace incumbent starter Peyton Barber, head coach Dirk Koetter refused to utilize Jones much. Jones was inactive for multiple games and only received 23 carries in 2018, behind both Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers. Jones also contributed nothing as a pass-catcher, with only seven receptions for 33 yards. Even though Barber did almost nothing with his 234 carries, the Buccaneers consistently refused to turn to Jones.
After 2018, the Buccaneers fired Koetter, replacing him with Bruce Arians. Arians seemed to dislike Jones, commenting on Jones’ poor pass-protection skills regularly. Even when Jones performed well, Arians randomly took him out of the game for Barber throughout the season.
Despite those obstacles, Jones wasn’t as bad as many remember in 2019. He took 172 carries for 724 yards and six touchdowns, and he also added 31 receptions on 40 targets for 309 yards. Jones was the RB25 in PPR formats, with 10.4 PPG, and he did far more with his carries than Barber managed on the same team.
As we all know, the Buccaneers spent the 76th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Vaughn. While I’ll save the full breakdown for the next section, Jones has the superior draft capital to Vaughn and was at least serviceable in 2019. Therefore, there is no reason to assume Vaughn just takes the starting job, especially as Arians prefers veterans over rookies. Most notably, in 2015, Arians left star rookie running back David Johnson on the bench in favor of veteran alternatives. Because of the high uncertainty, Jones is only my RB34 right now. At that price, I’m fine taking a chance on Jones.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Right after the 2020 NFL Draft, I did a quick take series on every offensive player drafted in the first three rounds, including Vaughn. At the time, I said that I thought Vaughn would take the starting job from Jones, as I didn’t like Jones as a player, and Vaughn was a strong prospect that excelled in the passing game. Brady has a history of working with pass-catchers, most notably James White.
However, since then, I’ve backed down from that take. After looking at Jones’ 2019 season more and more, I’ve realized that he wasn’t that bad and showed some promise. The Buccaneers also had the opportunity to get a higher-profile running back in this deep class but made no effort to do so. While they spent a third-round pick on Vaughn, both J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers remained on the board when the Buccaneers picked at 45th overall, where they passed on both players.
That decision, combined with the Buccaneers’ consistent offseason praise of Jones, makes me realize that this is a real competition where Jones currently has the edge. Also, the impact of the current pandemic reduces the likelihood that a third-round rookie will start from Week 1. While I think Vaughn has some upside as a pass-catcher, he’s currently overvalued in drafts. He’s my RB36 but a tier down from Jones. Vaughn is one of the players I expect to burn the most fantasy owners in 2020 redraft leagues.
Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski came out of retirement in 2020 after sitting out the 2019 season. I wrote a long piece about Gronk’s return, where I had a relatively rosy outlook on his 2020 prospects. In that article, I said I’d have Gronk around TE9 in my 2020 redraft rankings, precisely the spot he currently occupies.
Even in 2018, when Gronk seemed to struggle with a variety of injuries, he was still the TE11 and ninth in fantasy PPG. He still was a massive part of the Patriots’ offense and continued to display chemistry with Tom Brady. In the 2020 Buccaneers’ offense, Evans and Godwin will clear the middle of the field, allowing Gronkowski to see single coverage for the first time in his career. Gronkowski has never been the second, let alone third receiving option on a team, so he’ll see the easiest matchups of his career.
Gronkowski has considerable upside, which is all you can ask for out of a tight end outside of the top few tiers. If I miss out on an early tight end, I’d be happy to take a shot on him. If he hits and finishes top-three, Gronkowski could be a league-winner, and if not, I can cut him and move on at little cost.
Tom Brady
Brady had a down year in 2019, finishing as the QB12, averaging 16.4 fantasy PPG, 16th among quarterbacks. He wasn’t much better in 2018, where he came in at QB1 and with 17.5 fantasy PPG. While he still led the Patriots to the playoffs in both seasons, he wasn’t the fantasy force he’d been previously in his career.
However, coming into Tampa Bay, Brady has far superior weapons to what he had in the last two seasons in New England. Godwin and Evans are much better than any receiver on either of those Patriots’ teams, and he still has Gronkowski at tight end. Both of Gronkowski’s backups in O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate are better than anything the Patriots had at tight end in 2019. The Buccaneers also have no proven running back, and therefore, should lean on the passing game, especially considering Bruce Arians’ history of high-powered offenses.
Based on his upside, Brady is my QB9 for 2020. He’s still not a high-value quarterback, and because of his name, he’ll likely go too high in fantasy drafts for me. I prefer to wait on the quarterback position until the final rounds, so I’ll have to go in a different direction. Either way, I expect Brady to improve on his last two years and to be fantasy-viable in 2020.
Dart Throws
The Buccaneers don’t have any significant dart throws worth drafting in redraft formats. Both backup tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate have been fantasy relevant in the past, but I expect Gronkowski to take the lion’s share of opportunity among tight ends. While I haven’t completely given up on Howard in dynasty formats, he’s not a redraft play in 2020 unless Gronkowski gets hurt. Even then, Howard still didn’t succeed in 2019, finishing as the TE29 with 6.0 PPG.
The Buccaneers also have unintriguing backups at both running back and wide receiver. Dare Ogunbowale acted as the pass-catching back in 2019, but he will be superseded entirely by Vaughn in 2020. They also drafted Raymond Calais in the seventh round, but I don’t expect him to make an impact this season. At wide receiver, the Buccaneers have fifth-round rookie Tyler Johnson, second-year player Scotty Miller, and third-year veteran Justin Watson. None of them have any relevance unless Evans or Godwin gets hurt. Since both players have been relatively durable in their careers, I’d just ignore all other Buccaneers’ receivers until there’s a reason to pay attention to them.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Redraft Team Focus Articles: Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Vikings, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, Texans, Jets, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Broncos, Redskins, Rams, Jaguars, Patriots, Falcons, Ravens, Lions, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Colts, Dolphins
