I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a brand-new series on dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. In this series, we’re going to look at three groups of three players: the buy-highs, the underrated, mid-range veterans, and the deep dives. Let’s start with three buy-high players. These guys are all already expensive in dynasty leagues, but I believe that you should pay the premium cost, as they have room to grow even further in value over the next year.
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin is the most expensive of all these receivers. Over the past few months, he’s been a borderline first-round startup pick in dynasty ADP and hovered around WR5 in dynasty value, behind only Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyreek Hill. While Godwin’s price is very high, he’s worth every penny and more.
The Buccaneers selected Godwin in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft with the 84th overall pick. As a rookie, he played as the fourth receiver behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries. Even in limited playing time, Godwin still caught 34 of 55 targets for 525 yards and a touchdown. He flashed more than most third-round picks in his rookie year, leading to increased expectations going into Year 2.
In 2018, Godwin had a semi-breakout. Even though he continued to split time with Evans, Jackson, and Humphries, Godwin took a big step forward. He improved to 59 receptions on 95 targets for 842 yards and seven touchdowns, good for the WR26 in PPR formats. Frustratingly, the Buccaneers and head coach Dirk Koetter never fully deployed Godwin to his maximum potential.
After 2018, the Buccaneers fired their entire coaching staff and brought in Bruce Arians as their new head coach. Humphries and Jackson left in free agency, leaving only Godwin and Evans as veteran receivers in the offense. Both players flourished in Arians’ system, with both finishing as WR1s. Despite playing only 14 games, Godwin finished as the WR2 in PPR formats, only behind Michael Thomas. He caught an impressive 86 receptions on 121 targets for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. Godwin was a stud in every sense of the word in 2019.
Going into 2020, the Buccaneers made a massive change at quarterback, letting Jameis Winston walk and replacing him with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. While Brady may not air the ball out as Winston did in 2019, Brady is a far more accurate quarterback than Winston and could excel working with Godwin. Godwin plays well from the slot, similar to some of Brady’s favorite targets from the past like Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, and Danny Amendola. Therefore, Godwin comes in as my WR5 in my 2020 redraft rankings.
Overall, I have Godwin as my WR3 in dynasty and seventh overall player. He’s only behind Thomas and Adams in my wide receiver ranks and only behind the “big four” running backs in McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, and Kamara. As Godwin only turned 24 years old in February, he’s a long-term stud and a cornerstone asset. The Buccaneers have stated their intentions to extend Godwin’s contract, so he’ll be a part of the team for the foreseeable future. Whether they also plan to keep Evans or not is irrelevant to me as I believe Godwin is good enough to succeed with or without him. Pay whatever it costs to acquire Godwin, and thank me later.
A.J. Brown
Like Godwin, A.J. Brown is probably one of the most hyped receivers in the dynasty universe right now. Almost everybody wants Brown on their team, and he’s had a meteoric rise in value over the past year. I completely agree with the consensus on Brown and let’s get into why.
Brown had a massive breakout in his rookie year. The Titans drafted him with the 51st overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. At the time, most dynasty owners saw the landing spot as extremely negative as the Titans were a run-heavy offense led by a mediocre quarterback in Marcus Mariota. Before the draft, Brown was in contention for the top rookie receiver in the 2019 class, but he fell significantly in rookie drafts after the Titans’ landing spot.
Despite all the obstacles, Brown flashed in Week 1 with three receptions for 100 yards. However, Brown never built chemistry with Mariota, never exceeding three receptions in any game Mariota started and recording 27 or fewer yards in four of those six games. Once Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback in Week 7, though, Brown became a stud. From that point forward, he averaged 16.4 PPR points per game and was the WR7 during that period.
For the season, Brown finished with 52 receptions on only 84 targets for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. He also added three carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Considering that Brown played behind former number one receiver Corey Davis for almost half the season and struggled through Mariota’s awful play, his success is even more impressive. Brown averaged a whopping 20.2 yards per reception, behind only Mike Williams among WRs.
Going into 2020, Brown has every opportunity to continue to be a fantasy stud. The Titans added no significant receivers to their roster and retained Tannehill on a massive contract extension. They also declined Davis’ fifth-year option, so there’s no doubt that Brown is the top receiver for the Titans. However, the Titans are still a run-first team, and I caution fantasy owners not to get carried away. Brown is only my WR18 in redraft PPR formats.
Even though he’s not my favorite in redraft, Brown is a dynasty star. He showed more than any other rookie receiver in the 2019 class, and profiles as an alpha receiver in the NFL with dominant, big target traits. He’ll turn 23 years old later in June, so he’s plenty young with many years to accumulate value. Even if he finishes as the WR18 in 2020, he’ll still hold his dynasty value. Therefore, Brown is my dynasty WR9 and 21st overall player. He’s just behind Mike Evans and just ahead of Kenny Golladay in my receiver rankings, which seems like a fair price given Brown’s upside. I have no issue paying the iron price for Brown, and I’m willing to do pretty much anything to get him on my team.
Courtland Sutton
I can already hear the objections from the audience: “Courtland Sutton isn’t a buy-high. His value is way down after the Broncos drafted Jeudy and Hamler.” Well, that’s partially true. He indeed has declined in value, but he’s still a high-end dynasty asset. This small decline in his perceived worth has presented a fantastic buying opportunity that might never happen again. Let’s look at why.
The Broncos drafted Sutton in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft with the 40th overall pick. He joined a receiver room with veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas and immediately took over as the third receiver on the depth chart. In the middle of 2018, the Broncos decided to trade Thomas to the Texans, opening up a starting outside role for Sutton alongside Sanders. While Sutton still didn’t break out in 2018, he displayed more flashes of talent with the increased playing time. He totaled 42 receptions on 84 targets for 704 yards and four touchdowns. Considering that the Broncos suffered through Case Keenum’s poor quarterback play and had a terrible passing offense, Sutton did well as a rookie.
Coming into 2019, the Broncos added tight end Noah Fant in the first round to complement Sutton and Sanders in the passing game. While Sanders represented a substantial veteran presence on the team, the Broncos expected Sutton to be their top receiver. Even before the Broncos traded Sanders to the 49ers in the middle of 2019, Sutton already came into his own as a star. For the year, he had 72 receptions on 124 targets for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns, leading the Broncos in all receiving categories. Again, Sutton had inconsistent quarterback play at best, with the trio of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and rookie Drew Lock all struggling at times. However, Sutton made several highlight-reel plays and was one of the few bright spots on a sad Broncos’ offense and finished as the WR19.
Even with Jeudy and Hamler added to the team, I’m not quitting on Sutton in dynasty. He’s a talented, young wide receiver that will turn only 25 in October. Hopefully, he now has a solid, young quarterback in Drew Lock and should be a candidate for a contract extension shortly. In general, the worst process in playing dynasty is to overreact to additional offensive weapons added to an offense. Don’t make that mistake with Sutton. He’s a cornerstone-level dynasty asset, and you should treat him that way.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
