In my previous offseason reaction articles, I’ve looked at a variety of offseason moves and how they relate to dynasty formats. The full list of links is at the bottom of the article. Now, it’s time to discuss Rob Gronkowski’s unretirement and the fantasy impact it will have on the Buccaneers.
Gronk is back! I feel like I needed to get that out of the way. If anybody doesn’t know, on April 21st, Gronkowski came out of retirement. Everything moved at a breakneck pace on that day. First, Ian Rapoport reported that Gronkowski wanted to unretire and join Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. A few hours later, the Buccaneers and Patriots agreed on a trade to send Gronkowski and a seventh-round pick for a fourth-round pick. Soon after that, Gronkowski officially passed a physical, which finalized the deal. Therefore, Gronkowski had gone from retired in the morning to officially part of the Buccaneers in just a few hours.
In Tampa Bay, Gronkowski joins a crowded passing offense. The Buccaneers have star wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. However, Howard has been on the Bucs’ trading block for most of the offseason, and I don’t expect him to be a part of the team going forward. Additionally, I expect the Bucs to add a running back in the 2020 NFL Draft. Specifically, the team has mentioned that they would like a running back that excels in the passing game, similar to what Brady had in New England with James White. Therefore, Evans, Godwin, Gronkowski, and the new running back will make a deadly four-pack of passing weapons for Brady. Let’s look at the impact on the Bucs’ fantasy options.
Rob Gronkowski
In terms of his dynasty value, Gronkowski just came back from the dead. It’s tough to evaluate what he’s worth since he came out of retirement so abruptly. Gronkowski will turn only 31 years old in May, so he could theoretically have a few years left. I expect him to play 2020 and 2021 with Brady in Tampa Bay, although that’s probably all you’re getting from Gronkowski.
Therefore, if we assume that Gronkowski will play two years, the second question is, what kind of tight end are we getting? Even in 2018, when Gronkowski suffered from multiple injuries and was a blocker far more than in the past, he still finished as the TE11 in only 13 games played. He scored 10.2 PPR points per game, good for ninth in fantasy PPG. He still averaged a gaudy 9.47 yards per target and 14.51 yards per reception, finishing fifth and fourth among tight ends in each category, respectively. Therefore, Gronkowski was still extremely effective, even in his final season.
Based on those numbers, I will have no choice but to rank Gronkowski as a TE1 for 2020. I expect him to come in around TE9 when I include him in my redraft rankings. This ranking would place him just behind the tier of Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, and Tyler Higbee. Gronkowski would top the next tier of Jared Cook, Noah Fant, and Austin Hooper. I believe that Gronkowski still has the most upside of any of the players named, and could finish as a top-three tight end in 2020 if he is truly 100% healthy.
In TE premium formats, I would feel comfortable giving up a second-round pick for Gronkowski, probably even an early second. Buying him makes sense for contending teams since he is 31, but his age could also make him a cheap buy. Even in non-premium leagues, I still think Gronkowski is worth a mid to late second. Either way, I would spend my entire offseason FAAB budget to grab him in dynasty if he’s on waivers. There isn’t going to be another player this offseason with this type of upside.
Tom Brady
Brady already has little value in dynasty formats, as he will turn 43 years old before the 2020 season. Therefore, this transaction barely moves the needle on Brady in terms of his dynasty value. However, I have moved Brady up to QB9 in my redraft rankings. Brady and Gronkowski have undeniable chemistry, and I don’t see any reason why that will have changed after a year off.
Since I believe Brady will be a reliable quarterback option, he could be a great buy for contending teams, especially in superflex formats. Brady has a two-year guaranteed pact, so you’re getting two years of quarterback production. If you can get him for anything less than a first-round rookie pick, I’d pull the trigger on acquiring Brady. As for 1QB leagues, Brady has almost no value but would come extremely cheap. You can probably send a mid to late third-round rookie pick for him. If you’re a solid quarterback away from contending, it’s a nice move to make.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
I’ve combined Evans and Godwin since I think most of what I have to say applies to both players. While I still believe Gronkowski is an upgrade over O.J. Howard, I’m not sure that it’s going to affect Evans and Godwin that much. Gronkowski should consolidate what Howard and Brate did in 2019, but likely won’t draw more than the 108 targets that duo combined for in 2019. I do think that Gronkowski will steal a bit of touchdown upside since Brady has shown such an affinity for Gronkowski in the red zone.
In dynasty formats, I’m not making any significant adjustments to Evans or Godwin. I still have them both as solid dynasty WR1s and both as top-15 dynasty assets. Similarly, while I dropped each player a spot or two in my redraft rankings, I don’t see this move impacting them too much in 2020. I wouldn’t panic on either player and if you can get a discount on either based on this news, I would happily pounce.
O.J. Howard
Even if Gronkowski didn’t come to the Bucs, I have firmly believed that Howard is not in the Bucs’ long-term plans. After performing well in limited action in 2017 and 2018, almost everyone had Howard as their top breakout tight end in 2019. He was the TE4 in most dynasty and redraft rankings going into the season, behind only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz. However, in 14 games, Howard caught 34 of 53 targets for 459 yards and only one touchdown.
Despite his lack of usage, he still averaged 13.5 yards per target and 8.7 yards per reception. While both of those numbers represented significant declines from 2017 and 2018, he was still solid when used. His yards per target was eighth among tight ends, while his yards per reception was third.
Even though he still performed well in 2019, Howard is obviously in Bruce Arians’ doghouse. With Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, the Bucs have no use for Howard. Howard is a sneaky dynasty buy if his owner is afraid of his potential landing spot. If he can go to the right offense, I still believe that Howard is talented and can succeed. Unfortunately, the Redskins and Bears have been the two teams I have heard as potential destinations for Howard. If he goes to either place, I will be off Howard and will try to sell him. Even at this point, I would still want a mid-second-round rookie pick in regular formats and an early second in TE premium to move on from Howard.
Cameron Brate
I saw Brate as a sneaky dynasty stash for most of this offseason, notably after he restructured his contract to remain with the Bucs for 2020. I expected the Bucs to trade Howard, potentially leaving Brate as the top receiving tight end on the depth chart. Given how much Brady enjoys targeting his tight ends, I thought Brate had some opportunity as a flier.
However, now that the Bucs have Gronkowski, any hope for Brate has disappeared. He will backup Gronkowski in 2020 after Howard is traded and will have no dynasty or redraft value unless Gronkowski gets hurt. Even so, I don’t think that Brate is worth a spot on your dynasty rosters since the chance for him to be a starter has gone up in smoke.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Offseason Reactions: Nick Foles trade to Chicago, Stefon Diggs trade to the Bills, Browns’ offseason signings, Cowboys’ contract moves, Anderson signs with the Panthers, Perriman signs with the Jets, Funchess signs with the Packers, Ebron signs with the Steelers, Chiefs WR Moves
