We’re going to look at some 2020 rookies that could affect your redraft leagues. It’s a thought and speculation piece, but it’s the offseason, and thinking is fun! It will also be fascinating to look back on this article after the NFL Draft and then after the 2020 season. I will discuss my top four quarterbacks, five running backs, and six wide receivers. While there are some exciting rookie tight ends, I don’t expect any to be redraft-viable or even relevant in 2020. Here is part 1 of the rookie highlights.
Joe Burrow (QB – LSU)
Unlike the remaining players on this list, Burrow’s 2020 landing spot is pretty set. He will almost certainly go to the Bengals with the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft to become their starting quarterback. The Bengals have already stated that they will explore a trade for their former starter Andy Dalton so that Burrow will have no competition for the role.
In 2019, Burrow put up one of the best college seasons ever. He completed 76.3% of his passes and threw for 5671 yards across 15 games. He also threw 60 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. Heisman Trophy voters agreed with my assessment, as Burrow won a record percentage of first-place and total votes.
Coming into 2020, Burrow will have a plethora of weapons. The Bengals locked up Tyler Boyd to a long-term deal and will use the franchise tag to retain A.J. Green. They also have speedster John Ross and promising third-year receiver Auden Tate on their roster. Running back Joe Mixon will also take some of the initial pressure off Burrow, providing a solid anchor for the Bengals’ rushing attack.
For redraft purposes, I will likely not advise drafting Burrow in 2020. In general, rookie quarterbacks are not successful in fantasy football, unless they make plays on the ground. While Burrow did record 399 and 368 rushing yards in each of his two full seasons as a starting quarterback, I don’t expect running to be a core part of his game in the NFL. It will provide a nice fantasy floor, though. Therefore, after seeing Burrow perform for a week or two, I expect him to be in some of my streaming articles throughout 2020. I can’t trust him as my Week 1 fantasy starter.
Burrow will also affect the rest of the Bengals’ weapons. Considering that he is a rookie, I expect the Bengals to lean a bit more on the running game at first. Burrow also used Clyde Edwards-Helaire heavily in the receiving game. Both of those are positive indicators for Joe Mixon, who I expect to be a solid RB1 in 2020. As for the receivers, I believe there will be some growing pains. I would expect Burrow to concentrate his targets on the better players, which are Green and Boyd. Boyd primarily will provide an underneath presence that will be great for a rookie. I won’t be taking a shot on either Ross or Tate in redraft formats with a rookie quarterback, though.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama)
Tagovailoa had one of the best quarterback college careers of all time. He completed 69.3% of his passes for 7442 yards. Additionally, he threw 87 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. He averaged 10.9 yards per attempt, the best in NCAA history by about half a yard. If this process were stats-only, I would expect Tagovailoa to be the clear number one overall pick to the Bengals over Burrow.
Unfortunately, Tagovailoa is recovering from a catastrophic hip injury suffered near the end of the 2019 season. While his medical reports are looking somewhat positive, he will still likely miss a majority of the 2020 NFL season. At the very least, he is not expected to start Week 1. Therefore, whichever team drafts him will need to employ a bridge quarterback to start while Tua recovers.
I currently project Tagovailoa to go to the Miami Dolphins, joining Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen in the quarterback room. If that occurs, it will cement Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins’ starter. Similarly, if Tagovailoa goes to the Los Angeles Chargers, Tyrod Taylor will be the bridge quarterback in 2020.
While Tagovailoa’s medical outlook may change throughout the year, he won’t be a factor during the redraft season. Keep an eye on him in dynasty formats, though. He will be ranked as a low-end QB1 for me in dynasty, despite this terrible injury.
Justin Herbert (QB – Oregon)
Herbert had a very successful college career. In four years at Oregon, he threw 95 touchdowns compared to just 23 interceptions. He also completed 64.0% of his passes and totaled over 10000 passing yards. Many expected Herbert to enter the 2019 NFL Draft, where he likely would have been the second quarterback selected after Kyler Murray. However, he decided to return for his senior season at Oregon, where he finds himself now sharing a quarterback class with two solid prospects.
Herbert presents yet a different situation from either Burrow or Tagovailoa. Unlike Tagovailoa, Herbert is entirely healthy. However, unlike Burrow, Herbert is not guaranteed to start in Week 1. I believe that any team bringing in Herbert will have a bridge quarterback to at least begin the season. Once again, I point to the Dolphins and the Chargers as the two best landing spots for Herbert.
If Herbert goes to the Dolphins, I will keep a very close eye on the quarterback competition. I won’t be interested in either Fitzpatrick or Herbert as my fantasy quarterback, but who starts at quarterback will drastically affect the Dolphins’ pass-catchers. Fitzpatrick made DeVante Parker relevant for the first time in his career and also supported strong performances at times from Mike Gesicki and Preston Williams. If Herbert came in as the quarterback, it would kill the value of all those weapons. A good parallel is the 2019 Redskins, where Terry McLaurin was a reliable option with Case Keenum but lost value once rookie Dwayne Haskins became the starter.
If Herbert becomes a Charger, he will compete with Tyrod Taylor for the starting job. However, unlike Fitzpatrick, I have no faith that either Taylor or Herbert is a reliable option to support multiple pass catchers. While Taylor makes fantasy points with his legs, he isn’t a volume passer. Therefore, even if Herbert throws a bunch of interceptions, he could provide value to the receiving options over Taylor.
Finally, Herbert could go somewhere and start day 1. That could happen in either Miami or Los Angeles. Additionally, the Raiders, Colts, and Buccaneers are potential landing spots. If that happens, I will have zero interest in him as a quarterback in fantasy. Additionally, I will downgrade all receivers and pass-catchers on that team, as I expect Herbert to struggle massively at the start of his career. While I like Herbert’s long-term potential, I think he’ll be a fantasy time-bomb for all of his year 1 weapons.
Jordan Love (QB – Utah State)
I only include Love here to emphasize that he is not ready to be a starter in the NFL. He threw just 20 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions in his final year at Utah State. Love also completed only 61.2% of his passes in his career and averaged a paltry 7.6 yards per attempt. He totaled just 403 rushing yards in 38 games, so he’s not a ground threat either.
Many mock drafts project Love to go in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Buccaneers and the Colts are the teams that seem to be the most interested in Love. If Love ever sees the field, I will immediately downgrade all passing weapons on that team. While I think Love might have some long-term upside, he will be a disaster if forced to start in 2020. Just keep this in mind as a warning.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
