Nick Chubb is the most recent star running back to get a big extension. While the contract does not make him the highest-paid running back in the NFL, it still puts him in the top ten. So what does this new contract mean for Chubb, the future of the Browns, and some of their star players? Let’s dive in.
Rapid Reaction: Nick Chubb Extension Read More »
Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds.
Building a Redraft League Winning Roster: Part 2 Read More »
This week I drafted an 18-man roster in a 14-team 0.5 PPR staff redraft league for @DFF_Fantasy. It is also TE Premium, where they get a full 1.0 PPR. There are 11 starting positions, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/DEFplus seven bench spots. There are also bonus points for converted first downs, both on receptions and in the running game.
DFF Redraft League: Drafting from the Twelve Spot Read More »
The player I can’t leave my draft without is Zach Cunningham. While a bit of an obvious choice, I want to make sure everyone is aware of who he is and the situation that surrounds him. I want to start off and preface that it is nearly impossible to predict fumbles, interceptions, and touchdowns. This is where a lot of the big points in IDP leagues come from. What’s one thing that is predictable? Tackles. This is precisely why there is an emphasis on getting a good linebacker for your team.
Leave Your IDP Draft With Zach Cunningham Read More »
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy.
Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North Read More »
How much is a dynasty roster spot worth? Or how much should it be worth? Has anyone really tried to come up with a quantitative measure that can be actionable in some way when we are managing our dynasty rosters? We have trade calculators, rankings, projections, all customizable by league settings (for the most part). But roster spots are largely ignored. When a trade is made that involves a two-for-one player exchange, a roster spot has been cleared for one owner. Or perhaps two spots in a three-for-one, although those kinds of deals are rarer.
How Much Is A FFPC Dynasty Roster Spot Worth? Read More »
Last weekend DFF organized a 14 team redraft league comprised solely of DFF writers/editors as owners. In this piece, I will talk about how I prepared for the draft, got my strategy together, and actually navigated the live draft. Hopefully, this will give you some insight on not only the players I took but also the methods I used to prepare.
DFF Redraft League: Drafting from the Six Spot Read More »
Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.
Joe Mixon: By the Numbers Read More »
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We have just two divisions remaining, and this week’s coverage will focus on the AFC North. Check out the breakdowns for the: NFC West, AFC East, NFC East, AFC South, NFC South, and the AFC West divisions here at DFF as well, with the NFC North to follow soon. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division.
Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC North Read More »
It happens every year. Players get hyped during the offseason, and lofty expectations are set for them that coming season. Inevitably, several players will fail to meet those expectations and their value will fall, and leave a sour taste in your mouth. However, as a savvy fantasy player, you can use this to your advantage to identify undervalued players. Not every player who has failed to meet expectations will rebound, but if you put some thought into it, you can identify the ones that have a strong case for a bounce back.
2021 Post-Hype Sleepers Read More »
Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.
Dynasty Debates: Derrick Henry Buy or Sell Read More »
To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.
Corey Davis: 2021 Dynasty Profile Read More »
Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, a headline first reported by the NFL Network’s Tom Pelisasero. Akers was trending up in all fantasy football formats, going as a late second to early third-round draft pick in Superflex start-up leagues. He also was going as early as the first round in Redraft formats. This is a crushing loss, and we hope for a safe recovery for this promising young man. With an injury of this magnitude, we cannot dwell in our sadness, we must look for opportunities that this has created for us to gain advantages in our fantasy leagues for 2021.
Rapid Reaction: Cam Akers’ Torn Achilles Read More »
The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.
2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers Read More »
Building a league-winning roster involves being competent across many different criteria. The first box to check is having a high and consistent weekly floor. A weekly floor is important because inconsistent teams tend to not make the playoffs. It’s a long season, and your team getting cold for a couple of games here and there can be the difference between making a championship run and trying to not finish last. Now I understand that talking about players’ floors is not the sexiest topic in the world, but points win weeks. It’s as simple as that. This series will be written for those in normal PPR redraft leagues, starting 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, and 1RB/WR/TE along with a Kicker and Defense. Follow these steps, and you will be on top of your league’s podium at the end of the season.
Building a Redraft League Winning Roster Read More »
The Raiders hired veteran defensive mind Gus Bradley to coordinate their defense in 2021. Bradley has a long history of creating studs for IDP fantasy football. This track record, however, has delivered no shortage of teases to the game as well. For every Derwin James, there has been a Ronnie Harrison and a Kyzir White for each Telvin Smith. The 2021 Raiders are sure to have equal parts boom and bust among their defensive players.
Scheme or Scam: Las Vegas Raiders Read More »
The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone. This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.
2021 Projections: Denver Broncos Read More »
Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.
2021 Projections: Cleveland Browns Read More »
If you’re in the business of winning, then you should be in the boomin’ AB business in 2021. He is the definition of a potential league winner. After almost 18 months away from football for well-publicized off-the-field issues, he joined Tampa Bay Week 9 and was quickly back to vintage form. He finished in the 88th percentile against man coverage (Reception Perception) and third in fantasy points per snap (PFF). This led to him finishing tied as the WR21 on a point per game basis in Weeks 9 through 17. Considering AB was available in the late rounds of dynasty start-up drafts, and on the waiver wire in redraft leagues, the low-end WR2 production he posted was money in the bank for those fantasy players who took the risk on AB.
Antonio Brown: League Winner Read More »
Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.
Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild Read More »
