Author name: Jared Hines

DFF Staff Writer | FFPC HiStakes Portfolio Owner | Legends of the Gridiron 3peat/Jackpot Champ | 3rd place - FPC 2019 @DFF_Dynasty #DFFArmy #DynastyFootball

FFPC 2022 Landscape: Dynasty

The 2022 NFL season is almost here! Everyone is drafting, even the most casual of fantasy managers. The big national tournaments are filling up fast and in the dynasty world roster cutdowns are nearly upon us. In deeper dynasty leagues that may not be a huge challenge, but in FFPC we cut down to 20 inseason, including the K and Def, with 3 additional spots for IR. The cuts are due this Sunday night, September 4th just before midnight.

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Best Ball Is The Only Way To Mock

I haven’t done a mock draft in years, aside from a couple of rookie mocks for DFF earlier this offseason where we published our results. I have been doing cheap $10 and $35 dollar buy-in best ball leagues for years and pretended as though I was mocking. I was experimenting, I was reaching, and I was trying to see how far I could take a certain strategy from an early, mid, or late draft slot before that strategy breaks (in my pre-September mind). I have treated those best ball drafts as research. It’s what most people call mocking, but I do it with live drafts with real money.

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ShipChaser’s Top 10 Lessons From Poker To Apply In Fantasy Football #1-5

The game of poker, and more specifically No-Limit Texas Hold ‘Em, offers many lessons and insights that can be applied in fantasy football. I have occasionally considered myself a professional poker player at various times over the last ~20 years, which is to say that I have occasionally had a big enough victory to have to report it. I have cashed twice at bracelet events of the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, Nevada. I played a lot of online poker in the heyday of the internet poker boom in the mid to late 2000s. I believe I have played perhaps as many as two million hands in my life to this point. There was a time that I tracked it but I don’t really care anymore. At least I’m on the all-time leaderboard.

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ShipChaser’s Top 10 Lessons From Poker To Apply In Fantasy Football #6-10

If you run really bad at poker one night, chances are you’ll do better the next night. Even within one long session, if you play your cards right, more times than not you will see variance begin to swing in your favor. In dynasty fantasy football, playing your cards right might mean it takes a couple of seasons before variance fully swings around. Even redraft is a remarkably slower timescale in terms of payout turnaround than poker, where you can get paid daily. Did I say ‘daily’? There is a reason daily FF has exploded and it has everything to do with variance and getting paid off quickly, not once every twelve months. 

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Rapid Reaction: Baker Mayfield to the Panthers

For my money, I think both Mayfield and Darnold are better than people give them credit for. Mayfield is much better, though. He played under incredibly painful and difficult conditions for most of last year with a torn labrum in his left shoulder. People that say “but who cares, it wasn’t his throwing shoulder” are people you shouldn’t listen to. He also showed a lot of improvement the year prior, in my opinion, in a season that included three monsoon-type games. Look at his splits after the weather cleared. He has 92 TDs and 56 INTs in his career so far, compared to 54 and 52, respectively, for Darnold. I think he wins the job easily and I would approach drafts with that assumption.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Khalil Shakir

Shakir is a talented wide receiver that can carve himself a role in the NFL. The Bills have a very talented wide receiver room already with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Jamison Crowder. It will be very difficult for Shakir to find meaningful snaps and I would probably be avoiding him in all fantasy formats other than deeper dynasty leagues. I expect him to go somewhere in the late third or later of rookie drafts. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Sam Howell

Howell will need to sit and learn behind Carson Wentz before he gets a chance to become fantasy relevant. The Washington brass has given their public endorsement to Wentz as being a long-term answer for the club, but we all know anything can happen in the NFL. Howell was once considered the #1 QB prospect coming into the 2021 season, and for a time that summer was the odds on favorite to go #1 overall. His 2021 season was not as good as 2020 but he did show his ability to create with his legs and could be a sneaky good value for both the Commanders and fantasy owners.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Romeo Doubs

Green Bay has now drafted two wide receivers for Aaron Rodgers within the first four rounds. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could both compete for fantasy-relevant roles in year one, despite the day three draft capital for Doubs. In this analyst’s opinion, fourth-round picks are more similar to third-round picks than they are to fifth or sixth-rounders. Targets are earned and the Packers have plenty of targets to earn. I would also point out that Watson comes with perhaps more question marks than Doubs in terms of his talent. It is not outside the realm of reasonable outcomes that Doubs could emerge as the main receiving target in this offense. There may be room for both if not.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Pierre Strong Jr.

Strong was one of my favorite rookie RBs coming into this draft, and I was hoping he would sneak into day 2. Going in the fourth round isn’t terrible as draft capital is concerned. There may be sneaky good upside with a Patriots team that has a strong commitment to the run game. It is obviously a crowded backfield, however, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson seemingly entrenched. There had been rumors earlier in the offseason about trading Harris, but that never happened. Strong will get a chance to compete, however, and it is well within the range of outcomes for him to rise to the top of the pecking order. I would expect this to keep him in the third round of most rookie drafts, with some owners reaching for him in the second. It is hard to see any redraft or best ball value at this time, and I am forced to lower my rankings for both Harris and Stevenson, the latter of which bums me out a bit.

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2022 Draft Coverage: Desmond Ridder

Ridder has seen a sharp rise in dynasty SuperFlex ADP ever since his strong combine showing. I have done three FFPC SF startup drafts in the last two months and took him in the 20th round in one and the 9th in the most recent. I was expecting him to go in the first round and the dramatic fall of QBs in this draft does not make me feel great about the draft capital here. That said, if Ridder can learn behind Mariota, the sky could be the limit with Kyle Pitts and Drake London as cornerstone offensive weapons to play with in year two and beyond. I think this largely torpedoed Ridder’s redraft and best-ball value, but as only the second QB off the board, Ridder has a chance to become an incredible value play for both the Falcons and dynasty players. I expect him to go somewhere in the mid to late first round of SuperFlex drafts and for him to present an intriguing value in single-QB leagues somewhere in the late second to mid-third of rookie drafts.

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Myths Busted: #1-5

There is no shortage of annual narratives that develop within the hive mind of the fantasy football (FF) community. Some narratives last for several seasons, and some attach themselves to specific players. That is not to say that the hive mind can’t be useful, or that narratives that form are necessarily wrong. Quite the opposite happens a lot of the time. The wisdom of the crowd is something that can be leveraged to improve one’s fantasy performance. But following the groupthink mindset can be treacherous, and has led to what I think are some systemic misunderstandings within the hobby.

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Myths Busted: #6-10

There is no shortage of annual narratives that develop within the hive mind of the fantasy football (FF) community. Some narratives last for several seasons, and some attach themselves to specific players. That is not to say that the hive mind can’t be useful, or that narratives that form are necessarily wrong. Quite the opposite happens a lot of the time. The wisdom of the crowd is something that can be leveraged to improve one’s fantasy performance. But following the groupthink mindset can be treacherous, and has led to what I think are some systemic misunderstandings within the hobby.

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Dynasty Trading Psychology: It Pays To Advertise

Trading is the lifeblood of Dynasty Fantasy Football. Most of us would prefer to be in a league full of active and attentive owners where lots of trades go down. Unfortunately, that is often not the case, and even in some of the best leagues, there are usually at least one or two owners that are hard to reach (for any number of reasons) and that are hard to make deals with. I don’t know if I have ever gone through a startup draft or a rookie draft where there wasn’t at least one instance of someone reaching out to me and saying.

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State of FFPC Dynasty: Cut Trade Keep

Hello FFPC fans! It has been a while since I wrote about the state of the Dynasty landscape. I took my lumps in the championship round, failing to win a single ship out of 12 teams that made the dance. All in all, I did just a little better than break-even, which I consider a loss considering the amount of time I put in. I also had Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) on only two of those teams, where his Week 17 performance swung many league titles across the hobby. But c’est la vie as I always say.

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Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC: Part 2

Last summer I wrote about my historic FFPC dynasty rookie hit rates, and how those later picks in the third and fourth rounds typically hold at least a couple of gems. If you can find the space on the limited roster in this format, those later picks are worth scrapping for. I spend them just as easily. I never let a third-round pick get in the way of making a bigger deal that I like. Often I will add a third to my offer just to further entice my potential partner.

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Gabriel Davis: Gas or Brakes?

If Gabriel Davis wasn’t on your radar before last weekend, he sure is now. After his explosive performance in the AFC Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, a football game that some are calling the best ever played, there has been no shortage of speculation and debate about this soon-to-be third-year WR from the University of Central Florida. What do I think of Davis going forward?

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FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 13

The playoffs are here!! That’s right, in the Footballguys Players Championship and Main Event, the regular season ended in Week 12. The top four seeds advanced to the league playoffs that started Thursday night. Some prize money will be locked up this weekend and that is very exciting! There are still a couple of weeks left to go in Dynasty but the trade deadline has passed since my last article and there are lots of moves to go over.

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