We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and so with two weeks of information, we are starting to see how the backfields of certain offenses are taking shape. This report looks at weighted opportunity (WOPP), as well as some other metrics to help you identify buys and sells for your running back room for Week 3 and beyond. I will revisit this article at several points of the season to help you get ready for a playoff push, and ultimately a run at the championship! What is WOPP? It is a metric that apportions value to a running back opportunity (either a carry or a target). Targets are worth approximately 2.74 times the value of a rush attempt in PPR scoring, and as such, they are more valuable.
Welcome to the second entry in our twelve-part series counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch this sport that we love (and dominate our fantasy leagues in the process). If you missed the first article, you can find it here. The premise is simple: each article will have a numeric theme, counting down as each day is ticked off the calendar. There are just eleven days left until we are blessed with meaningful football and the sweat of Week 1 fantasy football matchups. Eleven days, eleven players on offense. See the pattern here? In this article, I’ll attempt to construct the best starting offense in football. The catch? I can only use one player per NFL franchise. Let’s see who made the cut.
If you’re in the business of winning, then you should be in the boomin’ AB business in 2021. He is the definition of a potential league winner. After almost 18 months away from football for well-publicized off-the-field issues, he joined Tampa Bay Week 9 and was quickly back to vintage form. He finished in the 88th percentile against man coverage (Reception Perception) and third in fantasy points per snap (PFF). This led to him finishing tied as the WR21 on a point per game basis in Weeks 9 through 17. Considering AB was available in the late rounds of dynasty start-up drafts, and on the waiver wire in redraft leagues, the low-end WR2 production he posted was money in the bank for those fantasy players who took the risk on AB.
Around this time each season, the dynasty community seems to grow a little bit bigger. There is a resurgence of enquiring social media posts along the lines of “Has anyone played dynasty fantasy football? It looks really fun but I’m not sure where or how to begin”. Every time I see one of these, I get excited. So excited in fact I have decided to write an article, for you – the enquiring mind. Here at Dynasty Football Factory, we want to ensure that all levels of dynasty players are catered for – from the beginner who has never been in a league, to the most seasoned of players.
The Rayne Dakota Prescott contract saga in Dallas is finally over. After months of “will they, won’t they?”, sanity has prevailed and Prescott has signed a four-year contract to remain the franchise quarterback of America’s Team. Adam Schefter announced the details of the contract which includes $126million in guaranteed money and Dak will earn an eye-watering $75M in his first year which includes a record-breaking $66M (!) signing bonus.
A few weeks ago, I was scrolling the Twitter timeline and saw several tweets about the value of rushing quarterbacks, and how the “Late Round QB” (LRQB) strategy in fantasy football (popularised by JJ Zachariason) was on the wane. Seemingly, the consensus was that capturing the upside that rushing quarterbacks bring to your lineup, was worth the opportunity cost of selecting one in the early to middle rounds of your draft. As a fervent proponent of the LRQB theory, my immediate thought was to dismiss it, but my curiosity got the better of me – so I went to the data to see what I could find.
Don’t blink, or you’ll miss it. There are just three games of football remaining in the 2020 NFL season. Before you know it, the NFL draft will have come and gone, and the rookie draft season won’t be far behind. With it, comes the buzz of the incoming class, and roster cutdowns mean some players who have yet to pop, will quickly be forgotten. This article is to remind you about five wideouts who came into the NFL over the past couple of seasons, with strong analytical profiles based on their dominator rating and breakout age.
If you haven’t heard of these metrics before, they are relatively straightforward and intuitive.
Dominator rating is the percentage of a team’s total passing offensive output (yards and touchdowns) for which a wide receiver was responsible. It is preferable to simply looking at the raw output due to vast differences in the circumstances of each wide receiver, such as quarterback play, scheme, and play-calling tendencies. It reflects how a player was able to perform relative to their college teammates. If they can’t outperform their peers, how can they be expected to earn targets on an NFL roster?
It’s been a while since I last wrote an article for DFF. Between work, moving interstate, dealing with the rescheduling of a wedding, and the general hustle and bustle of life, I’ve been short on time over the past few months. Or that is what I have told myself.
It’s very easy to put something off, especially when you know there will be some effort involved, and sometimes you can let the excuses win. But I want to start 2021 right, and it’s time for me to start pulling my weight once again. The amazing team here at DFF has been smashing out content week after week, and I am fired up to get back to contributing regularly.
We all know what a crapshoot the tight end position can be in fantasy football. The top five to six players at the position have a very projectable workload and, barring injury, we can expect the likes of Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews to be dominant. Then there is a larger group of players who have varying degrees of upside and could smash their current ADP. Ian Thomas falls into this second category.
Michael Gallup’s dynasty profile is an interesting story. He was drafted out of Colorado State in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL Draft. A JUCO transfer from Butler Community college, Gallup played his junior and senior seasons at the FBS Division I level. Here he featured as a key piece of his team’s offense, earning a 97th percentile target share and 74th percentile dominator rating.
Gallup had a fairly underwhelming NFL rookie season, but in his second year of professional football, Gallup broke out for 1,100 yards and six scores for 66 receptions from 113 targets.
If you’ve been hiding under a rock this week, Cam Newton has signed with the New England Patriots. There was plenty of pre-draft speculation that Belichick would sign Newton prior to the NFL draft, but his patience has paid off. Now that the quarterback market has completely evaporated, Belichick has signed a former NFL MVP, who is only 31 years old for cents on the dollar.
I don’t know about you, but I’ve been doing plenty of drafting during this extended period of isolation and lockdown. What else am I supposed to do? One player who seems to be consistently undervalued be it either in a season-long best ball or dynasty start-up draft is Tyler Lockett. I’d be willing to wager he will be undervalued in redraft leagues come August as well.
The Dallas Cowboys are poised to become one of the league’s most explosive offenses in the 2020 NFL season. You might even say their offense will be magnificent (I will see myself out). Despite their middling .500 record, Dallas was one of the best offenses in the NFL last year. It finished 2nd in offensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 4th in weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders, and 5th in points per game.
Week 8 of the NFL season is in the books. Yes, you read that correctly. After an agonizingly long off-season, we are past the halfway mark of the fantasy football regular season (assuming your playoffs start in Week 14*). That means it is time to objectively evaluate our rosters, and scrutinize each position group with …
I won’t draft a single rookie wide receiver this redraft season. It’s nothing personal against the likes of Hollywood Brown or Andy Isabella. I just don’t expect them to produce, and I have evidence to support this belief. The odds are stacked against them, and if they do manage to buck the trend and outperform their ADP, I will sleep soundly knowing that I trusted the process over results. Read on to find out why.Playing wide receiver in the National Football League is hard. Like really hard. Shocking, I know. Some incredibly gifted talents at the position flame out in the pros, despite dominating their peers in college. Others make an impact in their rookie season, but those that do usually have a combination of both generational talent and immediate opportunity. But sometimes, receivers just need some time to get used to playing in the NFL. One of the commonly quoted theories in fantasy football is that wide receivers take up to three years to break out. Working off the assumption that this is generally true, then drafting rookie wide receivers in redraft leagues would be, by and large, a waste of draft picks. So are rookie wideouts worth drafting? I decided to find out.The hypothesis was simple – rookie wide receivers rarely match or exceed their positional ADP.While this may seem like a relatively logical, and inoffensive statement, I wanted to check the data to see if my suspicions were correct