Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy.
BEARS
STOCK UP – DARNELL MOONEY
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2020 | CHI | 16 | 61 | 631 | 10.3 | 4 |
Last year came as a surprise to most. In his rookie season, Mooney surpassed both 60 receptions and 600 receiving yards. His efforts were good enough to land him second on the team in receptions and yards, and he finished as the WR50 in PPR Leagues in 2020. He was simply a streaming option, but worth rostering on your team in redraft leagues last year. He produced five double-digit performances and 20.3 PPR points in the final regular season game (11 receptions for 93 yards).
The second-year pro’s fantasy stock is rising, especially after Chicago traded away their former second-round pick, Anthony Miller. The former Memphis University standout hauled in 49 receptions for 485 yards and two touchdowns last season, finishing fifth on the team in receptions and third in receiving yards. In an already crowded receiving room, Mooney will benefit from his departure, and other players that will compete for targets include Jimmy Graham, Cole Kmet, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin, Javon Wims, and rookie Dazz Newsome.
We all know that the Bears drafted Justin Fields with their first-round pick. Even if Fields doesn’t see the field right away, Andy Dalton is surely an upgrade over both Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky from last season. The big reason why Mooney didn’t make more of an impact in fantasy is that the QBs throwing him the deep ball were very inaccurate. Mooney’s expected receiving yards were calculated to be 826 compared to his actual 631. With an upgrade at QB (Dalton or Fields), the departure of Miller, and a full season under his belt, Mooney’s fantasy stock is rising, and it’s to no surprise.
Mooney’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 72 receptions, 871 yards, 4 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – JIMMY GRAHAM
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2010 | NO | 15 | 31 | 356 | 11.5 | 5 |
| 2011 | NO | 16 | 99 | 1,310 | 13.2 | 11 |
| 2012 | NO | 15 | 85 | 982 | 11.6 | 9 |
| 2013 | NO | 16 | 86 | 1,215 | 14.1 | 16 |
| 2014 | NO | 16 | 85 | 889 | 10.5 | 10 |
| 2015 | SEA | 11 | 48 | 605 | 12.6 | 2 |
| 2016 | SEA | 16 | 65 | 923 | 14.2 | 6 |
| 2017 | SEA | 16 | 57 | 520 | 9.1 | 10 |
| 2018 | GB | 16 | 55 | 636 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2019 | GB | 16 | 38 | 447 | 11.8 | 3 |
| 2020 | CHI | 16 | 50 | 456 | 9.1 | 8 |
The 11-year pro was very inconsistent last season. Although he hauled in eight receiving touchdowns, the veteran TE produced his least receiving yards (456) since his rookie season. Graham also tied his career-low in receiving yards per reception (9.1). He finished as the TE13, but from Week 10 until the end of the season, he served as the TE24.
Not only did his production drop during the end of last season, but his playing time also did as well. He finished five of the last six regular season games with less than a 50 percent snap count. In those six games, Cole Kmet’s snap count was up over 70 percent. In fact, in Chicago’s final four games, he topped 85 percent in each. With those statistics, it’s safe to say Kmet is the clear TE1 for this team, and Graham is his backup.
Not only will Kmet see more targets than Graham this season, barring injuries, but the 11-year pro will also have to battle plenty of other pass-catchers for opportunities. Allen Robinson has consistently topped 150 targets in recent years. Byrd, Goodwin, and Newsome will more than likely receive a fair share of their own as well. Also, Chicago has some very talented pass-catchers in their backfield. In 51 career games, Cohen has hauled in 209 receptions for 1,575 yards and nine touchdowns. On the other hand, Montgomery produced 54 receptions for 438 yards and two touchdowns last season alone. Don’t expect great fantasy numbers from Graham this season, but he’s still a big red zone threat who is capable of winning jump ball situations.
Graham’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 26 receptions, 255 yards, 4 touchdowns
LIONS
STOCK UP – T.J. HOCKENSON
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | DET | 12 | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 2 |
| 2020 | DET | 16 | 67 | 723 | 10.8 | 6 |
The former eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft took a huge leap last season. He improved in nearly every statistical category from his rookie season, and he finished as the TE5 in PPR Leagues in 2020. Although Detroit made a ton of changes this offseason to their offense, Hockenson should be the beneficiary in 2021.
The Lions’ top-three WRs from last season (Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola) are all gone. Also, the man throwing him all the passes throughout his young career, Matthew Stafford, is also gone. In comes Jared Goff and a bunch of unproven wide-outs who will look to make a name for themselves. Detroit’s expected top-three receivers are rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Breshad Perriman.
Because their WR room is so weak, expect Detroit to get Hockenson heavily involved on a weekly basis. Unless he suffers some sort of injury, the third-year pro is a prime candidate to finish inside the top-five once again. It also helps that his new QB, Goff, loves to pass to TEs. Last season alone, he connected with his TEs 84 times for 925 yards and six touchdowns.
Hockenson’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 76 receptions, 859 yards, 6 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – JARED GOFF
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2016 | LAR | 7 | 54.6% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 1 |
| 2017 | LAR | 15 | 62.1% | 3,804 | 28 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| 2018 | LAR | 16 | 64.9% | 4,688 | 32 | 12 | 108 | 2 |
| 2019 | LAR | 16 | 62.9% | 4,638 | 22 | 16 | 40 | 2 |
| 2020 | LAR | 16 | 67.0% | 3,952 | 20 | 13 | 99 | 4 |
As mentioned above, Detroit’s pass-catchers are rather thin outside of Hockenson. Second-year pro RB, D’Andre Swift, has great pass-catching abilities along with Jamaal Williams in the backfield. Other than those three, there isn’t a ton of optimism for Goff’s weapons. This certainly hurts his fantasy stock, and playing for Detroit hurts his stock even more.
His former HC, Sean McVay, is considered one of the best offensive minds in the league. Even playing in his high-powered offense last season, Goff finished as the QB18 in fantasy. He was one of the more inconsistent fantasy options last season, posting consecutive 20-plus points just once (Weeks 2 and 3). On top of that, he failed to reach at least 15 fantasy points in six of his 15 games played.
Now the sixth-year pro will have to learn a new offense under Anthony Lynn. He’s also going to a team with a new HC, Dan Campbell. Expect his numbers to improve somewhat, but his fantasy stock is plummeting due to the fact that he now plays in Detroit and that their WR room is one of the worst in the league.
Goff’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 4,082 yards, 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Rushing: 81 yards, 2 touchdowns
PACKERS
STOCK UP – AARON JONES
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2017 | GB | 12 | 81 | 448 | 5.5 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| 2018 | GB | 12 | 133 | 728 | 5.5 | 8 | 26 | 206 | 7.9 | 2 |
| 2019 | GB | 16 | 236 | 1,084 | 4.6 | 16 | 49 | 474 | 9.7 | 3 |
| 2020 | GB | 14 | 201 | 1,104 | 5.5 | 9 | 47 | 355 | 7.6 | 2 |
The talk of the offseason has surrounded Jones’ QB, Aaron Rodgers. Now that Rodgers is set to come back this season, Jones’ stock has shot back up. Fresh off a four-year, $48M contract extension, the fifth-year-pro surely pushed back ideas that AJ Dillon would eventually become the team’s future starting back. Now that Jones and Rodgers are back for this season, the team is easily one of the favorites to win the NFC once again.
Last season, Jones finished as the RB5 in PPR leagues. He also finished as the RB2 the season prior. If his signal-caller were to leave Green Bay before the start of this season, this would be a whole different outlook for his fantasy stock. There’s a trust factor between the two, and that turned into 47 receptions for 355 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns last season alone.
Although his carries went down last season with the addition of Dillon, expect his touches to go back up now that he’s fresh off that contract extension. He’s also the most talented receiver out of the backfield now that Jamaal Williams is out of town. Green Bay wants him to be their team’s three-down back. He’s so dangerous both on the ground and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. It’s hard to imagine Jones finishing outside of the top-5 as long as Rodgers is his QB.
Jones’ 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 233 carries, 1,160 yards, 10 touchdowns
Receiving: 51 receptions, 413 yards, 2 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – ALLEN LAZARD
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | GB | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| 2019 | GB | 16 | 35 | 477 | 13.6 | 3 |
| 2020 | GB | 10 | 33 | 451 | 13.7 | 3 |
You would think the news of Rodgers staying put in Green Bay would help Lazard, but honestly, it doesn’t make much of a difference. There are now rumors surrounding the idea that Green Bay may pursue a trade for Randall Cobb. On top of that, they drafted Amari Rodgers out of Clemson in this year’s draft.
They’re returning Devin Funchess, a player who opted out of last season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan were heavily targeted last season. And Davante Adams will easily top 150 targets if healthy the full season. There are simply too many pass-catchers in this offense for Lazard to reproduce what he did last season. You also have to factor in that Jones will receive a bunch of targets out of the backfield as well.
Lazard has had a fine first three seasons in the league. Especially considering the fact that he went undrafted in 2018. But he’s never been a reliable fantasy option, and if you think he will be the season, you’re only kidding yourself. Sure, he may have some games where he produces good numbers, but his chances at being consistently fantasy-relevant have ultimately been diminished at this point.
Lazard’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 31 receptions, 398 yards, 2 touchdowns
VIKINGS
STOCK UP – IRV SMITH JR.
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | MIN | 16 | 36 | 311 | 8.6 | 2 |
| 2020 | MIN | 13 | 30 | 365 | 12.2 | 5 |
Big Irv’s stock is rising, and it’s simply because he will no longer back up long-time starting TE Kyle Rudolph. In his first two seasons in the league as a back-up, Smith Jr. has compiled 66 receptions for 676 yards and seven touchdowns. In that same span, Rudolph produced VERY similar numbers as he hauled in 67 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns the past two seasons.
Smith Jr. has respectively finished as the TE33 and TE22 through his first two seasons. Expect a big leap this year as he should become a prime candidate to finish inside the top-12. Not only will he see an increase in target shares, but his opportunities inside the red zone should skyrocket as well. His starting QB, Kirk Cousins, threw 35 touchdowns last season. Seven of them went to TEs, and Smith Jr. hauled in five himself. With Rudolph gone, he will be involved more in that red zone offense.
Tyler Conklin is still on the team, but he is used more as a run-blocker in double-TE sets. Last season, Smith Jr. recorded a 50.3% snap count percentage, whereas Rudolph finished at just under 53%, and Conklin finished at 41.4%. With an anticipated increased percentage this season, more red zone opportunities, and playing with a QB who loves to sling the ball, Smith Jr. should put together a fine fantasy season. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if he was this year’s Robert Tonyan of 2020.
Smith Jr.’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 48 receptions, 518 yards, 7 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – KIRK COUSINS
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2012 | WAS | 3 | 68.8% | 466 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| 2013 | WAS | 5 | 52.3% | 854 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| 2014 | WAS | 6 | 61.8% | 1,710 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| 2015 | WAS | 16 | 69.8% | 4,166 | 29 | 11 | 48 | 5 |
| 2016 | WAS | 16 | 67.0% | 4,917 | 25 | 12 | 96 | 4 |
| 2017 | WAS | 16 | 64.3% | 4,093 | 27 | 13 | 179 | 4 |
| 2018 | MIN | 16 | 70.1% | 4,298 | 30 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| 2019 | MIN | 15 | 69.1% | 3,603 | 26 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 67.6% | 4,265 | 35 | 13 | 156 | 1 |
Cousins isn’t necessarily in this “stock down” position because of his skillset. He’s here because Minnesota is hinting that his time as the starter may be over sooner rather than later. With their third-round pick in this year’s draft, the Vikings selected QB Kellen Mond out of Texas A&M. There were also rumors that they attempted to trade up to select Justin Fields before Chicago ultimately pulled that trade-off instead.
He’s expected to be the team’s starter the full season, but if things go south, Minnesota might pull the plug on him early. Both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will be back this season, and Cousins connected with those two alone 162 times for a combined 2,325 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2020. Expect those numbers to drastically drop this season. Minnesota wants to be a run-first team, and it helps that they have one of the best RBs in the league in Dalvin Cook.
The reason why they passed so much last season was that they trailed so often. They allowed the sixth-most offensive yards last season and finished fourth in points allowed. With a revamped defense returning Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Eric Kendricks, and Anthony Barr (all hurt last season at some point), and adding Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson, the difference should be night and day with this 2021 defensive unit. Because the defense will be so much better this season, Cousins’ fantasy production should decrease in a big way.
Cousins’ 2021 Prediction
Passing: 4,155 yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Rushing: 126 yards, 1 touchdown
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