If there’s one thing that’s ever so common in dynasty fantasy football, it’s overthinking a player’s talent. That’s something with which this receiver is far too familiar. I present to you the biggest value in 2021, Corey Davis.
The Profile
To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size.
Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.
Clearly, Davis’ situation wasn’t doing him any justice. Just to put into perspective how unhelpful his situation was to his fantasy production, here are his team’s pass attempts per game since his rookie season; 31.0, 27.3, 28.0, and 30.3. Never once achieving higher pass attempts than 31. That was bad enough to be ranked 28th, 31st, 32nd, and 30th. Absolutely abysmal.
Fast forward to today, Davis only has two WR3 seasons in his first four. But his production profile shows a much different story. He’s averaging a 20.7% target share and 1.72 receiving yards per pass attempt since entering the league. What other Alphas average at least a 20% target share and 1.65 receiving yards per pass attempt?
Ignoring the names, we see that 82.1% of receivers that qualify have at least a WR1 season. While every single receiver that qualifies has at least a WR2 season. Well, everyone except Corey Davis.
What’s the Problem?
So, the biggest issue for Corey Davis being a good fantasy receiver hasn’t been his own talent. It’s been his situation. Yet, that has not been the belief among consensus as evidenced by his ADP (per dynastyleaguefootball.com). When he signed with the New York Jets in March his ADP was listed at 105.5. Now, it’s at 114.2. His ADP is telling us that he or his situation got worse in fact.
“He’s not New York’s WR1”
It’s a very uninspiring corps, so making this counterargument is a strange one, but one I’ve seen all too much. First of all, Davis is the only Alpha that exists amongst them. His average receiving yards, receiving yards per team attempt, and target share are also the highest. As much as I’d like to get into the Elijah Moore profile, the likelihood that a rookie Beta receiver takes over as his team’s WR1 is very low. Only 3 Beta’s achieved a 20% target share in their first season. Corey Coleman, Kendall Wright, and Jerry Jeudy.
Time to Win
While everyone else is overlooking the production profile of Corey Davis in Tennessee, we’re not. 12th round ADP is a SMASH.
Until the next article, follow me on Twitter @dynasty_im!
