Author name: Ian Miller

Staff Writer @DFF_Dynasty | Fantasy Football is an imperfect science, give yourself the best chance | Value is King Crown.

Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 14

We’re officially just one week away from the fantasy football playoffs which means we are all, hopefully, gearing up for a deep playoff run. It all starts with establishing as high as a seed as we can this week, and hopefully a bye. But that doesn’t mean that the waiver wire activity is dead. It should be heating up to get as much crucial depth you can pile up for the run. When gearing up for the playoffs, there’s nothing that can set you back as much as a hurt running back (the highest missed game percentage among fantasy skill positions) with nothing to back it up. Although the waiver wire might not offer that league-winning running back to ride through the playoffs, you can find higher floored depth options.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 13

We’re officially just two weeks away from one of the best times of the year; fantasy football playoffs. By this time of the year, the waivers are looking as dry as ever. This means it is time for us to get a little sneakier and find some deep depth to stock the end of our benches with. We, as you know, are always on the hunt for running backs with a path to opportunity. But this week there’s not any to be found sitting on waivers, meaning it’s time to pivot; pivot from running backs to some sneaky late-week receivers.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 12

You know that feeling when Christmas feels so close yet at the same time, it feels so far away? That is the same feeling I get when it comes to fantasy football playoffs. It’s Week 12 and so close yet at the same time, it’s so far away. This may be a good thing for those that are trying to claw their way into the playoff picture. If that’s you, or even if you have a bye locked up, finding running backs that are getting usage and opportunity is so important for this stretch run. With that being said, there’s a couple of running back options scattered on the waiver wire that are there to help you.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 11

It’s been a good season of grinding the waiver wire, but now it’s time to find some depth gems to help for the stretch run before the fantasy playoffs start. In a wild Week 10, we saw our prior waiver wire add Cam Newton play just nine snaps and finish as QB16 of the week. That claim might just be a league-winning waiver claim. But enough about the past claims, it’s time to find some hidden opportunity on the free market for Week 11 and we have a couple of running backs that might be worth an add on our rosters.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 10

It was announced today that Sam Darnold is likely to miss a few weeks with a fractured scapula. This means that P.J. Walker is going to be Carolina’s starter for the foreseeable future. We know just how valuable the quarterback position is in non-one quarterback leagues due to it being the highest ceiling and floor position. When one of the NFL’s 32 quarterbacks is on the free market it’s a must-add. To be realistic, P.J. Walker isn’t someone we are ecstatic about. In 2020 he had 56 pass attempts, good for a 57.0 PFF passing grade. Which is quite bad. For reference, that would put him 31/35 amongst all QBs in 2020. He had five total rush attempts last year. I would be treating P.J. Walker on the FAAB market like a Geno Smith-light.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 9

Don’t look now but in the last two Jaguars’ games, Jamal Agnew has been the target leader on the team posting a near 20% target share. With DJ Chark out for the year, Laviska Shenault being very disappointing, and still having an aDOT close to the line of scrimmage, Agnew is worth the shot on the waiver wire.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 8

We know how valuable starting quarterbacks are in Superflex fantasy football because there are just so few of them, especially when the injuries and bye weeks start to pile up. Joe Flacco just got traded to the Jets after it appears that Zach Wilson is going to be down for a few weeks. Flacco isn’t as great of an option as Newton and Geno because his rushing ability simply does not exist, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be putting some FAAB to acquire a starting quarterback.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 7

Man, the free market is getting beyond thin. Just peeking through waivers in my leagues it was hard to find very much intrigue that exists. But that’s the nature of the beast, as we get deeper into the season the overlooked productive players have already been swiped and were now on the search for any sort of opportunity, we can get our free hands-on. 

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Week 6 Waiver Wire Grind

We’ve hit on some running backs on the waiver wire whose production has helped boost their value since we picked them up. If you haven’t been keeping up with the series we’ve been hitting on players like Elijah Mitchell, Kenneth Gainwell, Brandon Bolden, and more. As the season trucks along, the waiver wire continuously seems to be more sparse with options. This week we are going to look at players who have more short-term production value but are still worth the waiver wire stab.

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Week 5 Waiver Wire Grind

Last week we covered some running backs you should be targeting with a healthy shot at opportunity, which is all we’re looking for on the waiver wire. This week we’re doing the same thing but there are some new running backs we should be looking at acquiring on the waiver wire market.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 4

We’re officially going into Week 4 which means that the waiver wire is looking like the middle of the desert; just not much there. But that doesn’t mean I stopped searching for the next productive piece you can find on the waiver wire. This week we will look at three running backs with a path to opportunity, which is all we want from our bench running backs. 

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Redraft Waiver Grind: Week 2

Week 2 is now behind us, which means it’s time to start grinding the waiver wire again. Any little advantage you can gain in fantasy football you take and winning the waiver wire is one of them. Last week we covered Elijah Mitchell, Kenneth Gainwell, and K.J. Osborn. This week I’ll highlight three more players you should be eyeing from highest priority to lowest.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 1

Week 1 is over and whether you finished the week in victory or a loss, it’s time to grind the waiver wire. A very underappreciated part of fantasy football. If you’re looking for who you should be taking your shots at this week, I listed them in order of highest priority to lowest.

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Corey Davis: 2021 Dynasty Profile

To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.

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Rookie Fever: Rashod Bateman vs. Jaylen Waddle

When one rookie receiver climbs in value, one is usually falling in value. But is the rising value worth the price? Is the falling value worth the lessened price? Is the higher valued receiver even the better receiver? Cue: Jaylen Waddle versus Rashod Bateman.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft- 2021 Running Backs

Dynasty Build or Dynasty Maintenance?: Najee Harris

The building or maintenance of a dynasty team can be such a fragile project. One early missed pick can quickly change the direction of your team. Such as using a second-round startup pick (1QB) or the 1.01 in rookie drafts on a player who doesn’t project to be worth the price. I am talking about Najee Harris.

Harris was selected 24th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers who were lacking any sort of production from their backfield. But the bigger part of this is that he became a first-rounder, the 19th running back to do so since 2010. This is great for Harris because between 2010 and 2019, 43.8% of first-round running backs achieved at least an RB5 finish, and 75% achieved at least an RB12 finish.

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Elite: The Case for D.J. Moore

The receiver with two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons in their first three years or the receiver with just one top-24 season? Whichever way you want to portrait it, D.J. Moore has a lot of different interpreters that are struggling to find consensus. The range on Moore’s ADP is one of the most drastic out of all players. But where should we be valuing him? Is his WR16 ADP low enough to find value gains or not quite worth the price?

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Rookie Face Plants

Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy? We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010).  Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.

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The Case for Chase: 2021’s Sure Thing

Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)

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tigh end adp gains

The Gains of Tight End ADP

Everyone wants to find the edge in fantasy football. Sometimes the edge is glaring at you from across the room, and you just fail to notice it; or in this case, everyone fails to notice. Everyone is enamored with top-tier running backs and quarterbacks because of the positional advantage they give your team. We should be looking at the difference in production between a top player at a position and the bottom end starter at the same position, but we need to set some criteria for this study to have the most helpful results. 

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