In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Denver Broncos’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. The Broncos have typically been a pretty balanced team, boasting pass to rush play ratios of 1.23 and 1.26 in 2019 and 2020. I have them moving towards the league average of 1.36 and employing a ratio of 1.30 for the 2021 season. As for their touchdown ratio, they had a 1.62 in 2020 and 1.45 in 2019. I think they will stay in between these numbers and perform a 1.57 in 2021. Overall, this makes for a balanced team that leans slightly towards the run which I feel describes the Broncos and their team build very well.
I am projecting Teddy Bridgewater to be the starting QB for the Broncos this season. This is part of the reason I believe we will see a higher pass play ratio. Bridgewater brings stability and consistency to the Broncos, I’m projecting him for a solid 66% completion rate, 4200 yards, and 30 touchdowns. This results in almost 22 points per game when you add his pedestrian rushing stats. I believe Bridgewater will be a reliable mid QB2 in fantasy this year so his ADP of QB37 makes him a great guy to grab late if you are playing in a Superflex league. If you are in a one QB league you are better off not drafting him at all and taking a flex player instead.
The Denver RB room also provides some controversy as to who will be the main starter this season. Whether it will be the incumbent veteran Melvin Gordon or the flashy new rookie Javonte Williams. I believe the season will start with Melvin holding onto the reins but the staff will quickly realize Javonte is the better player. Melvin will not be completely phased out and will still have a role, but Javonte will be the back-to-own in 2021 and beyond. Javonte’s projections only result in a 14 point per game average but these points will be backloaded towards the end of the season and playoffs time. He will be a great asset to your redraft and dynasty teams.
With a current redraft ADP of RB29, he is a great guy to grab. I would gladly take him as soon as the RB20-24 range hits as that is where you start to see guys in split backfields like Kareem Hunt, Raheem Mostert, and James Robinson get drafted. I would much rather have Javonte Williams because he has the potential to be a workhorse without Melvin Gordon suffering an injury or missed time. While the other guys in this range would likely need their backfield mate to miss time to see a workhorse role. I am also fading Melvin Gordon at his ADP of RB25 because I do believe Javonte will be the starter there. I’d be happier taking Gordon around the RB40 range where we start seeing guys like AJ Dillon, Zack Moss, and Gus Edwards going.
The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone.
This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.
Lastly, we get to discuss the tight end, Noah Fant. Fant has averaged a target share of only 14% over the last two seasons, but this was with one season of just Sutton and another season of just Jeudy. Now that both of those receivers are healthy I do not have him progressing much, but I did give him a 15% target share. With these numbers, he is actually right with Mark Andrews in my projections which makes good sense. His ADP of TE8 is a great value to me considering the next couple of guys after him drop off to Logan Thomas, Rob Gronk, and Evan Engram. If you miss on an elite TE and do not want to completely fade the position then Noah Fant is the perfect TE to grab in the mid-rounds.
To conclude, avoid Teddy unless you are in a Superflex league, draft a lot of Javonte but do not grab any Gordon. Sutton and Jeudy both have good ADPs but I’d recommend Jeudy due to his cheaper price and similar projected output. Noah Fant is the best mid-round TE to draft this year if that is your preferred route to go. That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it. Be sure to look out for the next installment when I show you what to expect from a healthy Christian McCaffery in the new-look Panthers offense.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to
enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
