Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, a headline first reported by the NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Akers was trending up in all fantasy football formats, going as a late second to early third-round draft pick in Superflex start-up leagues. He also was going as early as the first round in Redraft formats. This is a crushing loss, and we hope for a safe recovery for this promising young man. With an injury of this magnitude, we cannot dwell in our sadness, we must look for opportunities that this has created for us to gain advantages in our fantasy leagues for 2021.
TORN ACHILLES
While we refer to doctors like our very own Zach Pavlichek for expertise in the injury department some basic overviews are publically known about the torn Achilles. Torn Achilles has a 72.5% return to play rate according to a study conducted by Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. Among NFL players an Achilles tear results in an 11-month rehab process that begins after the tear has been repaired. This means that Akers will be rehabbing well into the 2022 NFL Preseason. This makes the risk of acquiring him in a dynasty very similar to the timeline that Saquon Barkley is on for this season. The Rams have shown that they are not scared to churn the running back position with their release of Todd Gurley a year ago, I do not believe there is a 100% chance that Akers returns from injury and becomes the Rams’ full-time workhorse running back.
CAM AKERS VALUE IMPACT
Cam Akers was the Los Angeles Rams’ second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft with the 52nd overall selection. He was an athletic freak that didn’t produce behind a swiss cheese-level offensive line. Akers finished his rookie season in Los Angeles with 748 yards from scrimmage and three TDs. To add some context, Akers faced heavy fronts on 36% of his snaps, in which plays he averaged 3.1 yards per carry. When the Rams acquired Matthew Stafford to unlock the intermediate and deep passing attack, we projected the Rams to face a much lower stacked box, extrapolating a feature back role for Akers in non-stacked boxes for which he increased his efficiency averaging 5 yards per carry.
Unfortunately for the Rams their stallion running back will certainly miss the entirety of the 2021 season. Akers becomes un-draftable in redraft leagues and will waste a roster spot for all his exposure in best-ball leagues. In dynasty leagues, I highly suggest rebuilding teams send the Akers owner a lowball offer to get Akers for 2022 and beyond. For contending teams we would likely need more information on the league settings and roster build before being able to provide actionable insights, definitely reach out to @DFF_Dynasty on Twitter if you would like one of our fantasy analysts to weigh your options.
LOS ANGELES RAMS IMPACT
The first thing that you should do in all dynasty leagues is run to the waiver wire to see if you can scoop up a rare un-rostered Darrell Henderson waiver. Henderson was Ram’s third-round selection in the 2019 NFL Draft. The uber-productive Memphis running back was a popular selection in the late first to the early second round in rookie drafts, but he never took hold of the feature job.
The remaining running backs that are currently on the Rams roster in the order of how much they are set up to make in 2021 (total amount/guaranteed) are Darrell Henderson ($878,832/$272,664), Xavier Jones ($780,000/$3,000), Raymond Calais (($780,000/$0), Jake Funk ($660,000/$27,057), and Otis Anderson Jr. ($660,000/$0). Based on Sportstrac data the Rams have a little bit over $7M available if they wish to add a veteran free agent such as Todd Gurley, Duke Johnson, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Le’Veon Bell, among others. All of the aforementioned free agent running backs are worth stashing on the bench in case they are brought in. Here is how we would deal with the running backs on their roster if they did not sign a free agent.
Darrell Henderson becomes the volume back in this offense, we would expect him to get a majority of the snaps at running back and he immediately becomes a back-end RB2 for the 2021 season. We touched upon Henderson above and you should have already checked all of your leagues for availability.
Xavier Jones is the next man up based on their 2021 pay. Jones is a 25-year-old undrafted free agent from the 2020 NFL Draft. He stands at 5’11” and 208 lbs. which is not a typical build of an early-down back. Jones played at SMU for five seasons due to a redshirt sophomore season.
Raymond Calais is also set up to make $780,000 as Jones is, however he does not have any part of that contract guaranteed. The 5’8” 177 lbs. 23-year-old running back out of Louisiana-Lafayette is an interesting change of pace option. If Henderson handles the bulk of the work we could see Calais spell him on passing downs.
Jake Funk is a rookie running back out of Maryland, the Rams selected him in the seventh round. The 5’10” and 204 lbs. rookie tested decently at his Pro-Day but was unproductive with unimpressive competition at Maryland. Funk does not offer much upside as a dynasty stash because he is a more-or-less an unproductive and less athletic version of Henderson.
Otis Anderson Jr. is yet another undersized back, standing at 5’8” and 178 lbs. Anderson is an undrafted free agent from the 2021 NFL Draft Class. Anderson was a replacement running back for UCF, he lacks the size, athleticism, and production that would indicate fantasy relevance.
Now that we have laid out all of the potential beneficiaries of increased usage we can insist that
Henderson becomes the big winner. Behind Henderson are several undersized running backs none weighing over 210 lbs. Because of this, I would put my chips on the table for the Rams to bring in a veteran back to take care of early-down and obvious rushing situations. Because of this, I would be prioritizing Adrian Peterson, the 36-year old handled over 150 carries in Detriot last season. A reunion with Todd Gurley is also possible, and Gurley handled over 190 carries last season, however after being cut before the 2020 season.
In lieu of adding a veteran free agent running back such as Peterson or Gurley, we would expect the Rams to use the horizontal short game as a rushing alternative. This means it is wheels up for Cooper Kupp, one of the best short-term values in dynasty and redraft. Robert Woods would be the primary intermediate option and should see his targets as a percentage of the total team plays expanded. However, the sneaky and cheap play is Tutu Atwell, Ram’s second-round selection in this draft.
Last offseason I highlighted Atwell as he was reportedly running a 4.26-second 40-yard dash at 190 lbs. We now know that Atwell is playing much closer to 160 lbs. but he still maintains that game-breaking speed (even though it was falsely reported that he ran a 4.46 at his Pro-Day). I expect Atwell to be featured in both the Rams deep game, which would open up the field for Woods and Kupp than offer fantasy production, think Henry Ruggs. Where he would get high-value touches when it relates to fantasy would be in the jet sweep action near the goal line, setting up the offense for easy tap-pass receptions that are incredibly efficient in the red zone.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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