Part 2 – Finding breakout players in Rounds Three through Six
In the first part of this series, I detailed the best early-round strategy for winning your league. In that piece, I made the point that all early-round players have great upside, so target those with high weekly floors to create a consistent team. To read the rest of this article, click the link here.
Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds.
Rounds Three and Four
My general rule when targeting receivers that can vastly outproduce their ADP is to work outside in. As the draft progresses, work from prototypical “X” receivers into the slot. Slot receivers can produce fine fantasy production, but unless you guess right on a transcendent year like Godwin’s 2019, there is less upside than those that play on the outside.
The top five wide receivers in PPR last year were Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley. Only Tyreek Hill had over 25% of their snaps from the slot, per playerprofiler.com. Tyler Lockett was the only WR1 in PPR last season to have over 50% of snaps be from the slot. When picking in rounds three and four, target players with WR1 upside. With the depth-through-volume approach at WR, there is no use in taking a safe WR with a low ceiling if your goal is to win your league.
Players That Fit This Mold
Using FantasyPro’s ADP, there are currently 10 wide receivers that are being drafted between picks 25 and 48, which means they are typically a third or fourth-round pick. One of those players is Michael Thomas, who is assuredly going to drop after his recent injury news. Wide receivers drafted in the first four rounds have WR1 upside, so the strategy is still to draft receivers that play on the outside. Of the remaining nine WRs within this range, there are four WRs with under 25% slot snap percent: Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson II, Julio Jones, and Amari Cooper. Robert Woods and Mike Evans were close to hitting the threshold since both had around 30% slot snap percentage, so those players are also an option to target in the third and fourth round.
Why Look at Slot Percentage?
The percentage of snaps taken in the slot can tell a lot about how an offense uses a player and that player’s skill set. Players with a high projected slot percentage can lack a complete skill set or the requisite size to play on the outside, and this can limit the total number of snaps. There is a very strong correlation between slot percentage and how a wide receiver finishes at the end of the year. Only one WR1 had over 50% of snaps taken from the slot, but for WR2s, that number jumped to five. The WR3 tier contains prototypical slot receivers Cooper Kupp, Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, and Jarvis Landry. By selecting a player that plays on the outside, you are giving yourself a better chance to find a WR1.
Rounds Five and Six
At this point in the draft, you are likely targeting your second or third wide receiver. This is when the talent at running back pails in comparison to the talent at WR. Knowing that this sweet spot for WR talent will be waiting for you drives home the point of the importance of prioritizing running back early in your draft.
The strategy for rounds five and six differs slightly from rounds three and four. About 20 WRs will have been taken at this point. There is still great talent, but we can’t be too picky here. This tier all has similar talent, but some players are in better situations than others. When looking at a player’s situation, the two things I value are if they are in a good offense and if they are the number one option. Meeting these two criteria lowers the chances that the players will bust, while simultaneously giving them the high ceiling that we are chasing in the middle rounds.
Players That Fit This Mold
There are currently ten wide receivers being drafted in rounds five and six, and only four players are both the top target and on a potentially good offense. These four players are Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore, and Odell Beckham Jr. Johnson saw the eight-most targets in the entire NFL, and with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger being another season removed from elbow surgery, Johnson can vault himself into WR1 status. Both Kupp and Moore are in similar situations. Both players have new quarterbacks, have a coach heralded as a top offensive mind in Sean McVay and Joe Brady, and both are looking for positive touchdown regression. Odell Beckham Jr. is the most polarizing player in this group. No one is questioning his talent. Instead, his ACL tear, chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield, and being part of a run-first offense are giving drafters pause. Those are valid concerns, but his jumping back into elite status is well within his range outcomes.
Summary
Rounds three through six is a hotbed for wide receiver talent for your fantasy team. Because of this, it allows us to prioritize running back in the first two rounds. In rounds three and four, the plan should be to attack WRs that have elite upside, which is found through players that play on the outside, allowing them to see a high percentage of snaps. In rounds five and six, the situation plays more of a role in finding gems. Finding a good offense’s #1 option is a great way to organize the remaining players on the board when your pick is up.
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