In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in BestBall/Redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Carolina Panthers’ fantasy-relevant players. Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season.Â
The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.
I am projecting Darnold for a modest season of 4,600 passing yards along with 31 total touchdowns. This leaves him a pretty pedestrian prediction of 19.12 points per game. There is room for improvement here though. Darnold was most recently in a bad situation with New York and coached by one of the worst ever, Adam Gase. If we can see Darnold live up to his prospect and draft day hype with these new weapons he could have an even better year. All he needs is to increase his touchdown rate a few percent and his points will skyrocket. However, I do not think that is the most likely scenario. With that in mind and a redraft ADP of QB27, I am completely avoiding him in one QB leagues. If you are in a Superflex league and want to wait on your QB2 he is a great guy to grab cheap that really has a pretty solid ceiling.
In Carolina the RB situation is obvious, there is Christian McCaffrey and no one else. Now when you first look at his projections you might think that his 26 points per game are outrageous, but let us dive into that. First, as a side note, McCaffery played three games in 2020 and score over 90 total fantasy points which are over 30 points per game right there. Anyway, in 2019 CMC had 75% of the team’s carries, I clocked him in at 70% for 2021. He also had 4.8 yards per carry, I dropped this way down to 4.1 for this season. In 2019 he had a 75% rush TD share, I mirrored the carries and made this 70% also. Lastly, in 2019 he had an almost 23% target share, I dropped this to 20%. Overall, I gave CMC a lower share of the carries, the touchdowns, and the targets and he still is averaging 26 points per game in the projections. This should tell you that CMC is a bonafide stud and drafting anyone over him is a mistake. His RB1 is well deserved.
The wide receiver group does not bring many issues. DJ Moore is the slot guy who should see high volume. Robby Anderson is the primary X receiver, he should see good volume with increased red zone looks. Terrace Marshall is the incoming rookie who will be worked in behind two very good NFL wide receivers. I probably undersold Marshall a bit here but as a rookie in a stacked room with Sam Darnold at QB, this is a nice floor projection to work off of for him. Now for their ADPs and if I think they are worth it. D.J. Moore has a redraft ADP of WR19, I feel this is just right for him. I would not recommend reaching to secure him as there should be better options but you also do not have to wait and see if falls. I would scoop him up right at value and feel good about it. Now Robby Anderson with an ADP of WR33 is a different story. I would gladly reach for him to make sure he is on my team. I would take Robby around the WR27 range. This is where we start to see high-profile WR2s go and I think he is up there with the best of them. Lastly, I am avoiding Terrace in redraft because I do not think there will be enough opportunities left over between CMC, DJM, and Robby Anderson. He could be a good last-round stash if Robby got hurt but drafting WR handcuffs just is not a good play.
Lastly, we get to discuss the tight end, Ian Thomas. I am going to keep this short and sweet. Do not draft him if you are in a regular PPR, one tight-end league. He is not worth it and there just are not enough target or scoring opportunities.Â
To conclude, do not draft Darnold unless you are in a Superflex and you need a QB3 or are desperate for a QB2. Draft CMC whenever possible, he is a cheat code. Draft DJM at or under ADP but do not reach more than two or three spots. Draft Robby above, at or below ADP, he is a good value that I want on my teams. Do not draft Terrace Marshall Jr. unless you have a very large roster. Lastly, do not draft Ian Thomas, ever. That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it. Be sure to look out for the next installment so that you know what to expect from the Bears offense when Justin Fields takes over the reins.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
