Nick Chubb is the most recent star running back to get a big extension. While the contract does not make him the highest-paid running back in the NFL, it still puts him in the top ten. So what does this new contract mean for Chubb, the future of the Browns, and some of their star players? Let’s dive in.
Perhaps the biggest thing this new contract tells us is that the Browns believe Chubb’s knee injury last year won’t slow him down in 2021 or moving forward. Chubb’s sprained MCL caused him to miss four games last year, but he came back to average over 90 yards per game off of his injury. With that effectiveness, coupled with the new contract, fantasy owners should be confident in the bell cow’s health.
New Contract’s Impact on Usage
So now that we know Chubb is healthy and can handle the workhorse rushing role behind the Browns’ offensive line, the next step is to see if the new investment in Chubb means he is likely to see an uptick in usage the next year.
The two closest contracts given to running backs in recent years both came before the 2020 season where Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon. The usage increased for both players the year after signing their deal. Henry went from 303 rushing attempts in 2019 to 387 in 2020 under his new contract. His passing game work also saw an increase, going from 24 targets in 2019 to 31 targets in 2020. Mixon only played six games in 2020 but averaged 2.4 more rushing attempts per game and 1.5 more targets per game after signing his extension. Workhorses get paid to be workhorses.
Impact on Other Browns Players
There is one problem with Nick Chubb being the workhorse for the Browns: Kareem Hunt. Hunt is much more than just a pass-catching back used to compliment Chubb’s aggressive downhill running style. Kareem Hunt is multi-talented and is only a few years removed from leading the NFL in rushing yards his rookie year. Because of this skillset that Hunt has, it likely means he will have to find a new home after 2022 when his contract expires. If the Browns wanted to clear some cap space earlier than that, Hunt currently has no dead cap money for 2022 according to Spotrac. The year 2022 is an important year for the Browns as they are currently in the bottom ten in terms of cap space.
This deal likely means that the clock is ticking on Hunt’s time with the Browns, and the Browns have the same out with another offensive star in Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ is under contract for another three years, but he also has no dead cap after the 2021 season. Given the team success in 2020 when he was sidelined, and the lack of consistent high-end production that he is paid for if he does not return to form he may be a cut candidate. The Browns only have $7.5M in cap space in 2022, and Beckham Jr. is one of the Browns their largest cap hits at $15M in 2022.
Speaking of large-cap hits, Jarvis Landry could also be on the move. In 2022, Landry has a cap hit even larger than Beckham Jr.’s at $16.6M. Landry led the Browns in receiving in 2020, but he ranked 36th in the NFL in receiving yards and is the 17th highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. Landry and Beckham Jr.’s bond is no secret either, and if the Browns want to move on from one pass catcher, there is a real possibility that the other would want out.
Who Would Be Left to Catch the Ball?
It is unlikely that all of Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr., and Jarvis Landry would be gone. In all likelihood, only one of those players will be gone before 2022. The reason for that is because of the identity of the Browns. The investment in Nick Chubb, paired with the investment along the offensive line over the past two drafts, shows that the Browns want to effectively run the football. The Browns also drafted Donovan Peoples-Jones, a former 5-star recruit coming out of high school. If they believe that he can emerge as a playmaker on the outside, the Browns would be even more likely to let Beckham Jr. or Landry go. The Browns also own all of their top draft picks in 2022, so they could add a rookie to fill the void by cutting one of their veteran pass catchers.
There are so many ways for the Browns to replace one of their pass catchers moving forward. This new extension for Nick Chubb doesn’t put the nail in the coffin for Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr., or Jarvis Landry, but there is some writing on the wall that shows where the Browns’ priorities are at. Kareem Hunt dynasty owners should be hoping that he is the one that goes to a different team since he has already shown his ability to lead a backfield and could recement his status as a perennial RB1 if he goes to the right team. For Beckham Jr. and Landry, projecting their future production is a shot in the dark, but being let go before they turn 30, especially in Beckham Jr.’s case, could yield one last opportunity to return to fantasy superstardom before their age starts to slow them down.
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