In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Cleveland Browns’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. The Browns have typically been a run-heavy team over the last two years, even in neutral game scripts when they are not leading. It just makes sense to lean on the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. While they tear through the middle of the defense it lets Baker Mayfield relax a bit and just manage the game. This is the perfect formula for them and why I gave them a fairly low run-to-pass play ratio of 1.19. In 2020 their ratio was 1.01, but with a healthy OBJ and more confidence in Baker, I can see an increase in throwing.
Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the forces behind this two-headed rushing attack. Chubb handles most of the carries and Hunt handles most of the receptions. Even though they have a fair split of the carries, the Browns run the ball enough for me to project Chubb with almost 300 carries. With these carries I have Chubb rushing for 1500 yards and 11 touchdowns. These numbers are pretty close to his 2019 season in which we saw him collect 298 carries for 1494 yards but only eight touchdowns.
Chubb is one of the best pure rushers in the league and these projections show that. His ADP is currently RB8 which is ok, however, players are being drafted behind him that I would rather have in a PPR format. The list is short but it consists of Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. So, I think Chubb has a pretty reasonable ADP and am ok with drafting him there. But I only see myself drafting him if the pass catchers are already gone. Now Hunt kind of surprised me here. I was expecting to see him come out closer to 13 points per game than 11. This relegates him to a top bench player, rather than a guy you can leave in your flex and be happy about. With an ADP of RB23 and going over guys like Mike Davis, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne, I will not be drafting any Hunt unless he falls closer to RB30.
The wide receiver group has been underwhelming since adding Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to the mix. I have Landry leading the room with 96 catches for 1,200 yards and five TDs. Which comes out to a solid 14.5 points per game. Landry again will be the undervalued vet that will consistently give you what you need from your WR2 slot each week. OBJ could easily outperform Landry but I am being conservative here and having him come in with fewer numbers. The only place I believe OBJ will best Jarvis is in the TD department. My stats leave OBJ averaging a modest 13.3 points per game as he should be another guy that you will be able to set and forget in your first flex or WR2 slot. With an ADP of WR27 in redraft, I do feel that Beckham is being overvalued. I would be ok with him closer to the WR33-36 range. Landry however, has an ADP of WR41 and I am smashing that in every draft. I’ll gladly take Landry up in the low 30s or even in the high 20s. He is a possession receiver who will see a lot of targets and this makes him a consistent, productive asset. I will have a lot of him if his ADP remains the same.
Austin Hooper is stuck picking up the scraps left from OBJ and Landry. I have him projected for 52 catches, 560 yards, and 6 TDs. Because he is a TE these numbers place him in that third tier after guys like Fant and Goedert. So I would be only targeting Hooper in drafts if I miss on an early TE and am forced to wait for one of these lower guys. With an ADP of TE24 Hooper is very attainable, I believe this is quite low for him as well. I’d be comfortable taking him around the TE16 range.
To conclude, wait on Chubb, fade Hunt, hope OBJ falls a few spots, draft a lot of Landry, and grab Hooper if you are targeting a late tight end. That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it. Be sure to look out for the next installment when I show you my take on who the Broncos starting QB will be and how all of their weapons will perform with a healthy room.
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enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
