In the immortal words of Herm Edwards… “You play to win the game”. Many dynasty owners forget this simple and fundamental goal of fantasy football. Winning.
Sure, you might say you play to “have fun”, “make friends”, or “have a hobby”, but deep down, everybody wants to win. Winning is fun, especially when there is money on the line. We often get too consumed with building a roster of potential and forget to focus on the here and now. Of course, there are appropriate times to blow up a roster and embark on a rebuild, but sometimes a middle-of-the-pack roster is just a few shrewd moves away from success. There is nothing worse than having a roster in dynasty purgatory. After all…
One of the shrewd moves you can make this year is to draft or trade for Antonio Brown.
2020 Review
If you’re in the business of winning, then you should be in the boomin’ AB business in 2021. He is the definition of a potential league winner. After almost 18 months away from football for well-publicized off-the-field issues, he joined Tampa Bay Week 9 and was quickly back to vintage form. He finished in the 88th percentile against man coverage (Reception Perception) and third in fantasy points per snap (PFF). This led to him finishing tied as the WR21 on a point per game basis in Weeks 9 through 17. Considering AB was available in the late rounds of dynasty start-up drafts, and on the waiver wire in redraft leagues, the low-end WR2 production he posted was money in the bank for those fantasy players who took the risk on AB.
2021 Outlook
Tampa certainly has a crowded receiver room, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin leading the way, but there is enough opportunity for AB to outperform his 2021 ADP of WR46 (FantasyPros).
From the time AB was active in Week 9, the Buccaneers ran 11 Personnel (1 running back and 1 tight end) on 65% of their plays, an increase of 5% from Weeks 1 to 8 (Sharp Football Stats). They also threw 56% of the time in neutral or positive game scripts. This is important to note, as Tampa returns an elite defense with all 11 of its starters in 2021, so we can be confident that Arians and Brady will remain aggressive in their play calling even when leading games.
Tampa was also above league average in pass plays on early downs, ranking 12th:
Considering that Brady did not fully learn the new playbook until mid-year, and the Buccaneers face a top-5 strength of schedule (per Vegas win totals), this offense is primed to explode (again) in 2021.
Oh, and that Tom Brady guy isn’t a bad buy either…
You might be (correctly) wondering how an offense is going to sustain three fantasy-relevant wideouts, as well as the other skill position players. However, the Buccaneers adjusted their target distribution significantly to accommodate AB. Running backs and tight ends were targeted at 25% and 26%, respectively, through Weeks 1-8, but this dropped to 16% and 22% from Week 9. AB was heavily targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage, as well as in the short to intermediate areas, demonstrated by his average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.9 yards. That was the lowest aDOT of his career since his rookie year.
Whilst half-season splits are a small sample size, I am confident the Buccaneers will continue to use Brown heavily in the passing game, as well as feeding him targets that would otherwise go to running backs. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette are not great pass-catchers out of the backfield, and whilst Giovani Bernard has been signed in the offseason, it was for a veteran minimum of just $850,000 in guaranteed money. He is likely to compete with a roster spot for Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Who would you rather have with the ball in their hands in space? AB or Bernard/Vaughn? It’s a no-brainer…
Any Questions?
You might be doubting AB because of his age as he has just turned 33, but there have been plenty of Hall of Fame-caliber receivers who have produced after this point. Staying focused on a short-term dynasty window, these are the top 20 producing receivers between the age of 33 and 35 years old:
AB belongs in the discussion with these legendary receivers, and in the modern NFL, I don’t expect him to slow down any time soon. You can confidently roster AB for multiple seasons moving forward (assuming he is not suspended again).
So, let’s review:
- Talent? Check
- Opportunity? Check
- Explosive offense? Check
- Favorable schedule? Check
I fully expect AB to contribute on a weekly basis and he will be a valuable flex play especially in PPR leagues, with some serious touchdown upside. Should an injury to Evans or Godwin occur he almost certainly gains borderline top-12 upside on a weekly basis? That’s the definition of a league winner. And if you’re doubting what AB might be able to deliver this season, just remember:
Thanks for taking the time to read this article. If you enjoyed it, be sure to give me a follow on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!
*All snap and personnel data from Sharp Football Stats
