Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age.
The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.
Arthur Smith earned a head coaching job for the Atlanta Falcons in 2021 based on his elite-level play calling. Before Smith called plays, Henry averaged a career-high of 66 rushing yards per game in 2018. In 2019 with Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback, Henry averaged only 69 yards per game, whereas once Tannehill took over in 2019, Henry closed the season averaging 125 yards per game and increased his average carry from 3.7 yards to 5.9 yards. Will Henry revert to his pre-Arthur Smith form or will he continue his level of play with Tannehill as the starting quarterback?
In this article, @Heady_Football will debate that you should be selling Derrick Henry based on his value potentially plummeting, and Brad Hartnett (@DynastyDiagnos1) will debate his position that Henry will remain an elite running back long past the point when we typically see RB values decline in dynasty. For context, we will be arguing based on Superflex Dynasty league formats. Further context, according to a site that mines player trades Derrick Henry is currently being traded in Superflex leagues for an average of a mid-to-late 2021 first-round pick, or 2022 first and second-round picks depending on whether the respective leagues have already conducted their 2021 rookie drafts.
RECENT TRADES
Here is a look at some of the trades that a player sent to receive Derrick Henry and no additional pieces:
- Deshaun Watson and a 2022 second-round pick
- J.K. Dobbins, Dyami Brown, and Terrace Marshall
- Drew Lock, Javonte Williams, and a 2022 fourth-round pick
- 2021 1.05
- 2022 first and second-round picks
- Daniel Jones and 2021 2.01
- J.K. Dobbins
- 2022 first and second-round picks
- 2021 1.08
THE SELL HENRY AFFIRMATIVE
Simply put? The curse of 370 is why you should sell Derrick Henry. For the NFL there have been 30 occurrences of RBs having 370 carries or more. Out of those 30 times, using PPR format, only twice did someone score more points the following season. You don’t play PPR? Okay. Out of those 30 times, only once has an RB rushed for more yards the following season. That was before most of my counterparts here @DFF_Dynasty were even a glimmer in their daddy’s eye. Eric Dickerson, 1984. On average, RBs with 370+ carries the year before dropped over 40% in rushing yards and fantasy points (330.6 to 197.5).
I mentioned before that there were two times when RBs scored more in fantasy after their 370 carry season. That was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003 and Walter Payton in 1985. They did this despite dropping 2.3% and 7.9%, respectively, in their rushing totals. It was due to their increased usage in the passing game. So unless King Henry magically develops pass-catching skills, it’s safe to say the odds of him reproducing the amazing season he had last year is slim to none.
Some will say “but look at the bums that touched the ball over 370 times, of course, they dropped in production.” That’s a valid argument to have and after taking away any RB with fewer than 7,000 career rushing yards, we are left with 24 instances of 370 carries happening. On average we see a drop in 38% of their rushing totals from their previous season (1,754 yards to 1,102 yards). Where does that leave Henry? Using that formula, he would end up with around 1,255 yards. While yes, that’s still amazing, it’s not the King-level rushing one should expect from him, especially considering he is obsolete in the passing game. His fantasy production would leave him in the lower-end RB1/elite RB2 range. This is why you sell.
In conclusion, this is something most people don’t want to hear but it has to be said. The days of Derrick Henry being a top-level running back are over. Unless he is a statistical anomaly like Eric Dickerson, who had FOUR seasons of 370 plus carries (three before he was over 26), odds are we have seen his best days. So unless you are one of the top teams in your league, now is the time to sell. For what and how much? We will discuss that later on.
THE BUY HENRY AFFIRMATIVE
In regards to losing Arthur Smith, yes he is a very good play-caller, but the evident difference was Ryan Tannehill taking the helm. Pre-snap motion is the new analytic term to know for this offseason, because it’s a clear indicator for success, in an EPA per play perspective. With Mariota running the offense, they used pre-snap motion on 65% of the offensive plays, with Tannehill that number dropped to 58%, yet their efficiency still skyrocketed. Derrick Henry was unlocked by Tannehill having a 70% success rate on throws downfield (10+ yards) compared to Mariota’s 58% success rate.
The Titans also offset the loss of Arthur Smith by adding the Falcons’ face of the franchise Julio Jones via trade. We saw Henry increase from a 1,500-yard rusher in 2019 with an ineffective Corey Davis as the WR2. When we swapped in a fourth-year breakout and effective Corey Davis, Henry rushed for 2,000 yards in 2020. Swapping Julio Jones who is one of the most explosive wide receivers in NFL history from a yards-per-route run perspective, even with a lack of volume, Henry will make up for it with increased efficiency.
If we step back and take a 30,000-foot perspective the way that we are thinking about RB value is completely off right now. On the Twitter machine, you have heard “bell-cow running back” and “receiving floor” used by “fantasy analysts” to the point where the lazy fantasy players are just assuming that running backs that have that receiving upside are more valuable across the board than those who do not catch many passes per game. Yes, those backs with 80-100 catch potential do offer more current value in the sense that they may be league winners, but so is Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry surpassed the 1,000-yard mark three times in his first five seasons in the league. His league-high 378 carries do indicate that there may be some injury concern this season, especially considering the added game. However, at the poles, it’s touch insurance given the nature of the hits that he takes. In a recent study, I looked into pure runners compared to “dual-threat” running backs who both participate as main contributors in the passing game. The results were shocking.
There are only 18 running backs who earned over a 1,000-yard season in at least three of their first five seasons (the rookie contract for first-round draft picks). Then I labeled those who have over a 70-catch season on their resume as dual-threat runners and less as pure rushers and under 70-catch seasons as pure runners. After their first contract had ended a pure runner is 13% more likely to achieve a 1,000-yard season after their superimposed rookie contract expired. This is to say, Derrick Henry is historically more likely than Ezekiel Elliott to achieve fantasy-relevant seasons as they age. Consider that Adrian Peterson (36) and Frank Gore (38) are still kicking around in the league whereas Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell who are 27 and 29, respectively, have already departed from the NFL roster.
In conclusion, I believe that Henry is the type of player who will outlive his contract. I believe he will maintain a high rushing efficiency with Ryan Tannehill at the helm and experience the efficiency boost that comes along with adding a player like Julio Jones. This will result in Derrick Henry being a top fantasy point finisher over the next three to five years. Therefore Henry is worth more than his market value; unless you are in a total rebuild situation I do not see any reason to sell low on King Henry.
FIGHTING BACK, THE SELL HENRY NEGATIVE
Yes, taking on an insanely high number of rushing attempts does tend to incur a decreased level of production the following season. Why? Because production is linked to opportunities and if a player has fewer opportunities their production will decrease with it. We are forgetting the fact that Eric Dickerson surpassed the 370 rush threshold four times in his career, so that certainly wasn’t a death sentence. There have only been 30 total instances of a player logging 370 or more rush attempts in a season, so we’re already dealing with too small of a sample size to be analytically sound, but sure let’s look at the real reason why each instance of a 370-plus rush attempts season played out.
In 2004 Curtis Martin rushed the ball 371 times, he was 31 years old and hung up the cleats after the following season. In 2014 Demarco Murray logged 392 attempts in a season where the Cowboys decided to move on from him and run him into the ground; he played for the Titans thereafter, ironically alongside Derrick Henry. In 2000 Eddie George rushed 403 times as a 27-year-old, he surpassed the 300 rush mark in each of his age 28 to 30-year-old seasons. Also in 2000 Edgerrin James had 397 rush attempts, he went on to have six very predictive seasons after. In 2003 Jamal Lewis had 387 rush attempts in his infamous season cracking 2,000 yards, he also went on to rush for over 1,000 yards four out of his six remaining seasons. In 2002 LaDanian Tomlinson had 372 rush attempts, and he was undoubtedly the dynasty RB1 his following seven seasons. He even had fantasy-relevant seasons into his early-30s with a new team. Michael Turner ran the ball 376 times at age 26 in 2008. His immediate next season took a bump, but in all of the four seasons he remained in the league he scored over 10 rushing TDs and averaged over 1,000 yards per season. Finally, we have the great Ricky Williams who ran the ball 383 times for 1,853 yards and 16 TDs. He followed that up with an increased rush amount at age 26 with 392 carries for 1,372 yards and nine TDs.
Larry Johnson is the only running back so far that fell off a cliff after his age-27 season. However, he rushed for over 415 attempts and was usurped by the dynamic Jamaal Charles. Johnson is joined by Shaun Alexander who had a historic 1,880-yard season and 27 TDs in 2005. He failed to crack the 1,000-yard threshold, however, entering his age-29 season. So in the only two instances where a player rushed over 370 times have their values fallen off a cliff, and in both instances, we can explain it off as either having superior talent on the roster behind them or simply being older than Derrick Henry is now. Neither applies to Derrick Henry and with modern medicine, on his side, he is almost guaranteed to maintain his production into his early 30’s.
With 10 of the 12 instances since 2000 of a player rushing over 370 times either maintaining or even increasing their dynasty value I am taking that over watered-down draft picks all day, every day.
FIGHTING BACK, THE BUY HENRY NEGATIVE
I didn’t bother bringing up the whole Arthur Smith departure and the implementation of a new offensive scheme plus the addition of Julio because I believe that there will be growing pains during the transition. This isn’t the 1990’s USA Olympic Mens’ Basketball program, it’s not plug-and-play, collect your gold medal at the end of the tournament type of situation. This is the NFL. Where 6’5”, 250 lbs. dudes can run a 4.5 40-yard dash and bench 225 lbs. 20 plus times. To me, the loss of Arthur Smith, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith is going to be more than the Mike Vrable-led Titans can handle. Sure, adding Julio Jones and Josh Reynolds will be helpful for that offense but that offensive line, which is graded as a middle-of-the-pack unit overall, isn’t getting younger and is forecasted to be pedestrian yet again. So for everyone expecting something special to occur in Nashville due to the talent at the skilled position, I give you the Vince Young quote from 2011 concerning the Philadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team.” Needless to say, that didn’t end well for them.
There was talk of age concerning running backs and how the traditional running backs like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson last longer than the hybrid, Reggie Bush-type running back. While this may be true and the future of the position, remember this, “Father Time” eventually comes for every professional athlete. Doesn’t matter what science or diet and training regimen they use, Father Time is Undefeated. He will have his pound of flesh. With that in mind, let’s look at this from a realistic angle. Derrick Henry is going to be 27 years old entering this season, so let’s look at running backs who have rushed for at least 900 times during the age of 24 to 26 over the past two decades. And because we are talking about dynasty, let’s look at what these players have done over the next four seasons. News flash, it’s not a long list. Only Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Derrick Henry himself have run the ball that many times over that period.
So, the million-dollar question, what did they do over the next four seasons? LT simply went on a monster tear, setting the NFL on fire for the next four seasons, and Curtis Martin, a member of the 370 curse squad, put up mid-level running back numbers until he went bonkers at 31 with his monster season. So while, yes, LT proved that heavy usage during those years doesn’t impact future output, LT was a threat in the passing game which Derrick Henry is not, and in addition, Tannehill is no Rivers. If anything, I expect Derrick’s career path to follow that of Curtis Martin. One where he is simply run into the ground and eventually released or cut. While it may prove fruitful at times, I do not expect Derrick to be +412 on yards gained as he was last year and neither should you. Trade him.
CLOSING REMARKS, SELL HENRY
So I am saying trade the King BUT, if you’re competing for a title this year, hold the man. It’s not because I think Derrick Henry is going to be garbage this year. I believe he will end up as a low-level lead back for your dynasty team this year. What concerns me is the year after this. I am a card-carrying member of sell a year before the floor hits. So what do you trade him for? You better be getting at least a second-round draft pick plus a starter for your team. I don’t care if it’s a quarterback or another running back. Whoever you trade Derrick Henry for, they need to be able to be at the very least a flex position player for you. You don’t send someone with as much swag/value as King Henry has to another team unless you’re getting something of value in return. Now, if someone comes to you with a top-five draft pick and nothing else, I would consider the idea but PLEASE try and get a third-round draft pick or at least Darrynton Evans in return.
Now, I mentioned if you’re competing for a title this year you should hold on to Henry. This is true. However, this bears repeating, you better be trading for Darrynton Evans. He is primed to be the lead back for the Titans if/when Henry goes out. Think of him like the A.J. Dillon. He isn’t the lead back for the team he is on and he holds little value, but if an injury occurs, he will become a top-10 running back in fantasy.
CLOSING REMARKS, BUY HENRY
We have come to a form of a middle ground in this debate where both the debate for trading away Derrick Henry makes perfect sense, as does the trading for him. You, the reader, can now take all of the information to map out your game plan when it comes to Henry.
@Heady_Football brings up a great point that players that have very high touch attempts have a clear undebatable decrease in production the following year. Henry also is at an age and in a system where he will likely rebound in the years following his 2021 potential value dip. We have also outlined an arbitrage game plan that may optimize your fantasy roster’s overall value. To do this you will have to sell Derrick Henry this offseason high, hope that he doesn’t maintain his recent production, and buy him back before the 2022 season for a lesser cost. Here are the trade options from the sample that we lead this debate off that I would smash accept right now on a contending team. We both agree that a rebuilding team should never, never, acquire 27-year-old running backs. Given we are contending because the crew at DFF gives us insights that put us in said situation.
Brad Hartnett on what trades he would be willing to sell to acquire Derrick Henry.
- Deshaun Watson and a 2022 second-round pick
- Drew Lock, Javonte Williams, and a 2022 fourth-round pick
- 2022 first and second-round picks
- Daniel Jones and 2021 2.01
- J.K. Dobbins
- 2022 first and second-round picks
- 2021 1.08
To close the final page on the subject of whether you should be buying or selling the reigning leading rusher depends on your situation. My friend @Heady_Football made some great points that indicate red flags for his future and if that frightens you into selling the aging running back, and I hope I, @DynastyDiagnos1 laid out enough points that indicate Henry will be productive for years to come. When it all comes down to it, the decision is yours and what you do with it may be the difference between becoming a permanent contender or prolonging your eventual rebuild. Choose wisely, friends.
Thank you for reading our article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for future articles. You can also follow us on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and @Heady_Football and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
