Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We have just two divisions remaining, and this week’s coverage will focus on the AFC North. Check out the breakdowns for the: NFC West, AFC East, NFC East, AFC South, NFC South, and the AFC West divisions here at DFF as well, with the NFC North to follow soon. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division.
BENGALS
STOCK UP – JOE BURROW
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2020 | CIN | 10 | 65.3% | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 |
The former first overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft was on pace for a great fantasy season last year. Before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Week 11, he was serving as the QB15 in fantasy. He was on pace to throw for 4,300 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The biggest takeaway was that he was in his first season, and he was starting to really find his rhythm before he suffered the gruesome injury.
Going into his second season as a pro, Burrow is expected to be fully healthy. There is a ton of optimism that he’ll be ready for Week 1, and he will have a vast array of weapons surrounding him. Not only will he get back a healthy Joe Mixon, but he will also have a plethora of receivers to throw to as well. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins combined for 1,749 receiving yards while playing alongside A.J. Green last season. Now, they will welcome in rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s former college teammate.
Chase and Burrow were a dynamic duo in their LSU days. Two years ago, when Burrow won the Heisman Trophy, the two helped the Tigers win their first National Championship since 2007. During that season alone, they connected 84 times for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. Keep in mind, this was the same season Justin Jefferson was also hauling in passes from Burrow. Now that the second-year-pro will be reunited with his former college start wide-out, expect great things in fantasy. It also helps that he has Higgins, Boyd, Mixon, and a couple of pass-catching TEs that can make plays as well.
Burrow’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 4,343 yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Rushing: 251 yards, 3 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – DREW SAMPLE
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | CIN | 9 | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| 2020 | CIN | 16 | 40 | 349 | 8.7 | 1 |
Through the first two weeks of last year’s regular season, Sample served as C.J. Uzomah’s tag-team partner at the TE position. During those two weeks, Uzomah hauled in eight receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown, compared to Sample’s eight receptions for 52 yards, and no touchdowns. Once Uzomah went down with a season-ending injury, Sample took over as the team’s TE1.
Between Weeks 3 and 17, he served as the TE30 in PPR leagues, but he finished with three double-digit performances. No, he wasn’t a viable fantasy option last season, but you could make the case that he was primed for a great season this year with Burrow returning from injury. That may be the case if Uzomah was no longer on the team and if the Bengals didn’t draft Ja’Marr Chase.
Keep in mind, Higgins, Boyd, and Auden Tate are still on the team. To make matters even worse for Sample’s fantasy stock, Mixon is a great pass-catcher that’s returning this season fully healthy. Those four players alone made up for 46 percent of the team’s targets last season. Green was also on the team last season, and it’s safe to predict that most of his lost targets (104 in 2020) will go to Chase. There are simply too many receivers surrounding Sample in this offense for him to have great fantasy value.
Sample’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 22 receptions, 200 yards, 1 touchdown
BROWNS
STOCK UP – BAKER MAYFIELD
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2018 | CLE | 14 | 63.8% | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| 2019 | CLE | 16 | 59.4% | 3,827 | 22 | 21 | 141 | 3 |
| 2020 | CLE | 16 | 62.8% | 3,563 | 26 | 8 | 165 | 1 |
This seems like the same song and dance from last offseason. Mayfield’s fantasy stock was increasing before the regular season because of all the talented pass-catchers surrounding him. Nothing has changed; Mayfield’s stock is rising for the same reason again. If you look at this team’s roster on the offensive end, it’s hard not to get excited about his potential fantasy production this season.
First of all, his most talented WR, Odell Beckham Jr., is returning this season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 7 of last year. Secondly, Jarvis Landry can still play at an elite level. Other talented receivers on this team include Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and rookie speedster, Anthony Schwartz. The Browns also have one of the deepest TE groups in the league. Austin Hooper is a former Pro Bowler, and both Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are established TEs in this league as well.
What makes Mayfield’s job even easier lies on the foundation of Cleveland’s run game. Their offensive line was graded out as the best overall line in football last season, and Nick Chubb is one of the best rushers in the game today. On top of that, Kareem Hunt is also a talented runner who possesses great pass-catching skills as a receiver out of the backfield. When you think about all of this, Mayfield’s fantasy stock HAS to be rising each and every day until he proves that he isn’t capable of being fantasy relevant.
Mayfield’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 3,939 yards, 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Rushing: 211 yards, 2 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – JARVIS LANDRY
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2014 | MIA | 16 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 |
| 2015 | MIA | 16 | 110 | 1,157 | 10.5 | 4 |
| 2016 | MIA | 16 | 94 | 1,136 | 12.1 | 4 |
| 2017 | MIA | 16 | 112 | 987 | 8.8 | 9 |
| 2018 | CLE | 16 | 81 | 976 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 2019 | CLE | 16 | 83 | 1,174 | 14.1 | 6 |
| 2020 | CLE | 15 | 72 | 840 | 11.7 | 3 |
Last season was Landry’s worst statistical season in his seven-year career. That worst season landed him as the WR33 in PPR leagues. Don’t overthink this; Landry is still a great receiver in the NFL, and he has never performed worse than he did in 2020. Last season was a tale of two seasons for the former Pro Bowler. Through Week 11, he served as the WR49, but between Weeks 12 and 17, he served as the WR12.
Part of the reason why he didn’t produce much before Week 12 was simply because he played alongside Beckham Jr. for most of it. In games he and Beckham Jr. played together, Landry only produced 27 receptions for 367 yards and no touchdowns. On the other hand, Beckham Jr. hauled in 23 receptions for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Sure, their numbers were somewhat similar, but Landry certainly underperformed while his teammate was healthy and on the field.
Another reason why Landry’s stock is dropping is because of the amount of talent surrounding him on this team. Landry received 20 percent of the team’s targets last season, but Beckham Jr. will shrink that number significantly. The combination of Beckham Jr. returning, the amount of talent surrounding him, and the team predicating their offense on the run game, will affect Landry’s stock negatively.
Landry’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 71 receptions, 824 yards, 4 touchdowns
RAVENS
STOCK UP – LAMAR JACKSON
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2018 | BAL | 16 | 58.2% | 1,201 | 6 | 3 | 695 | 5 |
| 2019 | BAL | 15 | 66.1% | 3,127 | 36 | 6 | 1,206 | 7 |
| 2020 | BAL | 15 | 64.4% | 2,757 | 26 | 9 | 1,005 | 7 |
Last season was obviously a drop-off in production compared to Jackson’s MVP season in 2019. His numbers in nearly every statistical category worsened last year. He passed for fewer yards, rushed for fewer yards, threw fewer touchdowns, and threw more interceptions. Here’s the thing; he still managed to finish as the QB10. Jackson also suffered a tale of two seasons like Landry did above.
Through Week 7, he was on pace to finish as the QB16. From then on, he was a top-10 fantasy QB. He really turned on the jets in the last three weeks of the season (Fantasy Playoffs) as he finished as the QB1 between Weeks 14 and 17. Outside of Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, Jackson didn’t have a lot of weapons to work with in Baltimore’s offense. No other player topped 50 targets outside of those two.
The reason why Jackson’s stock is being elevated is simply based on the fact that
Baltimore knew they needed more pass-catchers in their offense. They intelligently drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round of this year’s draft, and they went out and signed a veteran receiver, Sammy Watkins. Now you have to worry about Jackson throwing deep to one of his speedsters, Brown or Watkins, throwing over the middle to Andrews or Bateman, or taking off with his feet.
Jackson’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 3,891 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Rushing: 984 yards, 6 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – MARQUISE BROWN
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | BAL | 14 | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 |
| 2020 | BAL | 16 | 58 | 769 | 13.3 | 8 |
Outside of Andrews, Brown has been the most consistent and productive pass-catcher for Baltimore during the last two seasons. Although he doesn’t dominate in fantasy, he has posted plenty of high-point-total performances throughout his two-year career. During last season alone, he produced nine double-digit PPR point finishes. He also finished the season with six straight.
During those last six weeks, Brown served as the WR13. On the other hand, he served as just the WR54 between Weeks 1 and 11. Expect his 2021 numbers to lean more on that side of his production rather than his late-season surge numbers. As mentioned above, Baltimore addressed the elephant in the room and added two solid pass-catchers at the WR position. This will take some pressure off of Brown as the team’s WR1, but he will surely see a drop-off in targets this season.
On top of that, this team is all about their rushing attack. The trio of J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Jackson should minimize Brown’s opportunities even more. Depending on the team’s matchup for the week, he’s still a great streaming option. When it comes to dynasty, Brown is still a receiver you want to keep, and he still may have some value if you are shopping the 24-year-old.
Brown’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 52 receptions, 718 yards, 5 touchdowns
STEELERS
STOCK UP – NAJEE HARRIS
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2017 | ALA | 10 | 61 | 370 | 6.1 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2018 | ALA | 15 | 117 | 783 | 6.7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| 2019 | ALA | 13 | 209 | 1,224 | 5.9 | 13 | 27 | 304 | 11.3 | 7 |
| 2020 | ALA | 13 | 251 | 1,466 | 5.8 | 26 | 43 | 425 | 9.9 | 4 |
The hype surrounding the rookie RB should increase more and more as the season looms closer. How can’t you love his opportunity? He’s going to an established team that possesses a great head coach, a strong passing game, and talented weapons on the outside. Sure, their offensive line is a mess, but Harris will receive a TON of touches this season.
Having a great passing game should help Harris transition smoothly at the pro level. Because defenses will focus on the plethora of weapons in the passing game, the rookie should have better opportunities in the running game. Harris himself is a great pass-catcher as well. During his senior season at Alabama, he hauled in 43 receptions for 425 yards and four touchdowns. With great pass-catching and rushing abilities, Harris is primed to become the team’s every-down back.
Here’s another reason why the rookie will receive so many opportunities: the depth behind him is atrocious. Benny Snell is projected as his back-up, and he owns a career 3.6 yards per carry average. When given the opportunities last season, he ultimately disappointed in a big way. Second-year pro Anthony McFarland Jr. and veteran Kalen Ballage are the other backs on this team, and they haven’t proven much as pros throughout their respective careers. Harris is undoubtedly the team’s RB1, and he may be the only one given many opportunities if he stays healthy,
Harris’ 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 255 carries, 1,122 yards, 8 touchdowns
Receiving: 34 receptions, 272 yards, 2 touchdowns
STOCK DOWN – ERIC EBRON
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2014 | DET | 13 | 25 | 248 | 9.9 | 1 |
| 2015 | DET | 14 | 47 | 537 | 11.4 | 5 |
| 2016 | DET | 13 | 61 | 711 | 11.7 | 1 |
| 2017 | DET | 16 | 53 | 574 | 10.8 | 4 |
| 2018 | IND | 16 | 66 | 750 | 11.4 | 13 |
| 2019 | IND | 11 | 31 | 375 | 12.1 | 3 |
| 2020 | PIT | 15 | 56 | 558 | 10.0 | 5 |
As mentioned above, Pittsburgh has a TON of great pass-catchers on their roster. Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson look to be the young and improving WRs at this moment. And even though JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t sign long-term, he still brings much value to this team. Those three alone accumulated 59 percent of the team’s targets last season. Also, James Washington is an underrated player that received 56 targets of his own in 2020.
Ebron had a fine season last year as he produced 56 receptions for 558 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough to land him as the TE14 in PPR leagues. Yes, he still drops more passes than he should, but he has great size and talent for his position. So why should his fantasy stock start to drop?
Pittsburgh used their second-round pick on TE Pat Freiermuth. The rookie brings a different element to this offense that Ebron simply can’t bring. Not only is he a quality receiver who can make contested catches at high points, he’s also a very highly graded blocker. Combining those two elements will eventually decimate Ebron’s snaps at some point. Even if he doesn’t cut into his snaps much, Freiermuth is another body on this team that threatens Ebron’s potential opportunities. It’s hard to imagine the seven-year pro putting together amazing fantasy numbers with all of the talent surrounding him in this offense.
Ebron’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 49 receptions, 513 yards, 4 touchdowns
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