This week I drafted an 18-man roster in a 14-team 0.5 PPR staff redraft league for @DFF_Fantasy. It is also TE Premium, where they get a full 1.0 PPR. There are 11 starting positions, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/DEF plus seven bench spots. There are also bonus points for converted first downs, both on receptions and in the running game.
1.12 Antonio Gibson
I have worked from the back end of a redraft snake draft many times this year, and indeed some of my best squads in years past have come from the late position. I knew it would be hard to get RBs later in this draft, especially with it being a 14-teamer, but I wanted to make sure and get a top WR out of these first two picks. My preference would have been Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) or Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) but Diggs went off the board right before me and Hill was long gone. I knew I could likely get one of my next top WRs (based on price) at 2.03 but I didn’t think Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) would make it back to me as he has been getting drafted at the turn regularly in FFPC redraft tourneys.
I wasn’t sure how many of my colleagues in this draft were actually aware of the TE Premium setting and I was considering whether Darren Waller (TE – LV) might come back to me after the turn. Ultimately I decided I wanted the starting stud RB that I wrote my second article about. Waller came off immediately thereafter. You can read more about how I feel about Gibson here, but I think he can be a top-five RB this year.
2.03 D.K. Metcalf
There are lots of other RBs in this area at the beginning of the second round, but I decided to take “my guy”, D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA). There was really no hesitancy about this and I more or less made this decision before I picked Gibson in the first. If not Metcalf I would have gone with Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) or I would have considered DeAndre Hopkins (WR – AZ). Metcalf is my highest ranked dynasty WR and I consider him to be a league-winning difference-maker at the position, in as good a position as any other WR to finish as the overall WR1 in 2021.
3.12 Mark Andrews
As I said, I have drafted a lot of teams from the back end. Part of my strategy going in, aside from always wanting to be flexible and adapt to a draft as it unfolds, is to make sure and take one of the top tight ends in this kind of format, for 2021 anyway. With 11 starters, the TE position is even more diluted than usual. So any potential advantage that an owner holds by having a top TE is not going to be as big of an advantage in a league that has fewer starters. Having a top option at a position where high-caliber talent is incredibly scarce is still a really big deal, and that advantage will be held over a larger number of teams than in a 12-teamer. I have been on record as saying that Travis Kelce (TE – KC) is the single biggest advantage in fantasy football, almost regardless of format.
All that to say that I knew I was going to be taking a TE at the back of the third round and/or the beginning of the fourth. T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) has been my favorite choice in that area but he was already gone. I have no qualms whatsoever about taking Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) in this area. But ultimately I went with the guy that I believe has the most TD upside in the league right along with Kelce.
He won’t get as many receptions and he will have some lower floor games, but I expect the Ravens to bounce back this year and to see a season closer to the 2019 team. I also expect the passing game to open up more with the additions of Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) and Sammy Watkins (WR – BAL) as well as a better-flowing run game that emphasizes J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL). Andrews is going to get a lot of highly efficient open looks this year and this locks down a very important starting position for me, and theoretically gives me an advantage over many other owners in the league.
4.03 Darrell Henderson
This is where some of my league mates apparently think my draft went off the rails as I felt compelled to take another RB in a hobby that values them highly and where we know starters are relatively scarce. I had Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) and Pitts at the top of my board at the time of the third/fourth turn. But both those guys were sniped before coming back to me. I was on the pro-Cam Akers (RB – LAR) side of the debate before his injury so if I was willing to take him in the first round a month ago, why wouldn’t I take Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR) in the fourth today? Seems like a no-brainer to me. There are very few WRs I love in this area of the draft and I knew I was going to be waiting on QB. I have to get RBs at some point and Henderson is going to eat this year. Even if they bring in someone like Adrian Peterson (RB – Free Agent).
5.12 Trey Sermon
Part of my rationale for waiting on another WR is that they are so unbelievably easy to find whereas RBs are not so easy and I needed more of them. I have made the decision this year, based on my tiers and my reading of the tea leaves that make up the current NFL landscape, that I cannot really cross the street without running into a couple more WRs worth starting.
The 49ers moved up in the draft to take Trey Sermon (RB – SF) as only the fourth RB off the board in the middle of the third round. They do have a ton of RBs already and the situation is murky. When teams move up in the NFL draft to take a RB with reasonable capital (the middle of the third means a lot more than it did 10 years ago as far as RB prospects go), I take notice. I typically draft as many shares as I can, redraft or dynasty. RBs that teams spent extra picks to move up and get have been shown to produce at higher levels and as rookies. There are more questions than answers at this point in the backfield, however. But it is my opinion that Kyle Shanahan has been wanting to finally get “his guy” at RB for a long time and has just had bad luck with injuries and such (and much cheaper capital involved).
This could be different. My general take on rookie RBs is that they often start the season slow for fantasy and NFL purposes, but take over by the time of the fantasy playoffs. Yes, I’ll take some of that, please. And NFL teams want to get their rookie backs on the field. Veteran backs are just not valued the same as they were 10 years ago. Maybe not even five years ago. This keeps working for me every year and yet every year there is someone that says “but he is a rookie.” Ok, well he is a rookie that the club loved and they’re going to make him the guy. It will be up to him to hit. Sermon is going to get a lot of carries and has been said to have really good hands. Shanahan loves to target RBs.
Rookies take over jobs. Every. Dang. Season. And it is almost always at a rate faster than we were expecting. The Niners want to run the ball and Sermon is tailor-made for their zone scheme.
6.03 Chase Claypool
At this point, I felt satisfied that I had three very good RBs that were all at the top of my board when I took them and that it was long past due to take some more WRs while there were still some good ones to be had. With shallow benches, I am usually willing to go somewhat thin at RB in order to be very strong elsewhere. In this case that is a little questionable because although I had Metcalf, I felt all along I would need a very strong and deep WR corps to compete in this league. Not taking a second WR until the sixth round doesn’t seem to fit that plan at face value. I may not have pulled that plan off. I consider Claypool one of the best young WRs in the league and although I have some doubts about what Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) can do, I am encouraged that Claypool was so good his rookie season and that he is headed into what could be a breakout second season, as well as their offensive coordinator situation being more conducive for Claypool getting targets and touches. He probably has a less-than-ideal weekly floor but I love his ceiling on a team that loves to throw the ball a lot. He will be difficult to defend.
7.12 Michael Pittman
More WRs, please. I liked his profile (enough) coming out. I thought he flashed as a rookie. Frank Reich was very excited when they drafted him and said he was brought in to be the X. I believe second-year WRs are almost like a cheat code in this hobby. I have drafted this guy almost everywhere. I also believe in the Wentz/Reich marriage and this offense is going to be hard to defend. He should be the #1 target in their passing game or no worse than #1B.
8.03 Michael Gallup
More WRs, please. Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) is banged up, but this high-octane offense is going to put up yards and points. I want a piece. If everyone is healthy I should still be able to get decent spot flex value from Gallup. I expect this to be a breakout season for CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) but if there are ever any more or longer-lasting injuries to either of those top two WRs, Gallup could be a league winner. With potentially five WRs starting in a given week in this format, we are going to have some misses but we need to get guys like this in our lineup. This is Tyler Lockett but in the eighth.
9.12 Justin Fields
I was starting to get legit drunk by this point. I am a Bears fan and I have never been more excited about a QB acquisition by my team in my lifetime. And I’ve been watching Bears games since the early 1980s. So this is a homer pick, but certainly my biggest reach. But I also think he can be a league-winning fantasy quarterback. I think he is an excellent prospect with incredible rushing upside. Look at this block he makes:
10.03 Henry Ruggs
More WRs, please. Yeah, this is an upside pick. I know he didn’t do anything as a rookie after being drafted so high. And I know Derek Carr (QB – LV) doesn’t seem to like to throw deep, but did I mention I like second-year WRs? I also believe in context and Ruggs was hurt for much of last year. Other receivers perform when they are hurt but oftentimes they don’t. I don’t know how he felt out there last year but I do know as a former student-athlete that “just suit up” doesn’t quite cut it. Sometimes, injuries do explain poor performance. Anyway, this is a boom or bust pick and I think we will know the verdict early in the season in terms of whether I will still want to roster him.
11.12 Gabriel Davis
More WRs, please. And another second-year one at that. In a top-five offense. Maybe the top offense, that passes a lot. He flashed as a rookie. Near the beginning of training camp last year, when a reporter asked former Bills receiver John Brown (WR – LV) about the rookie Davis, he was effusive in his praise. He said that Davis already knew the playbook better than many of the veterans and that he was coaching up the vets in practice on route and release nuances. In his rookie season during COVID, early in camp.
The Bills brought in Emmanuel Sanders (WR – BUF) and the outlook for Cole Beasley (WR – BUF) looks shaky right now. Sanders has perpetually been a thorn in my side for many years now as he is an incredibly solid and productive journeyman that is almost always undervalued. Usually by me. The Bills did not bring him in for no reason, so I have tempered expectations for what Davis can do. Diggs is perhaps the biggest alpha in the league in terms of target share. But in this passing offense, I will take as many receiving options as I can get and I love Davis this year. I have ridiculous exposure to this man.
12.03 Cole Kmet
Meh. He looked good last year and is poised to be the main receiving TE option for the Bears, and I get to stack him with Fields. But they do have a thousand TEs on their roster and we don’t really know what they’re going to do at QB. I don’t suppose Andy Dalton (QB – CHI) would be terrible for Kmet. Who knows, maybe even better than Fields in that regard. But at this point of the draft, it is all depth and upside. While I blinked, the Bears signed another TE, Jesse James.
13.12 Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaking of not being sure what the Bears are doing at QB, I figured I needed to get some insurance at some point in this draft after reaching for Fields. I love what the Washington Football Team is doing these last couple of years under Ron Rivera (former Bear). I took Gibson in the first round partly because of his high receiving floor and ceiling, in addition to his rushing role. QB+RB stacks aren’t much of a thing if I understand the theories on that correctly, but it isn’t terrible either and I think Fitz could have a real glory year this season. That defense is going to be tough as well. Week 1 insurance play. I’ll drop him in a heartbeat if Fields is playing (well) and if a waiver darling presents itself.
14.03 Damien Williams
Definitely thin at RB at this point and really need to get some useful guys if I can. I have been talking smack about Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI) for two years now. I really don’t like his game. He can’t go north and south. If you need a guy that can sprint to the sideline for a three-yard loss, but to do it faster than anyone else in the league, then Cohen is your guy. Williams played with Coach Nagy in Kansas City (where he helped them win a SB and looked good doing it) and makes a much more logical direct backup option to David Montgomery (RB – CHI). And that was my take before the news broke this week that Cohen is having trouble recovering from his ACL and is being placed on PUP. Williams is likely to have a useful stand-alone role in what could be an ascending offense.
15th – 18th
The Patriots’ defense is probably going to be good again. Not super sold on the Dolphins or Jets being any good so maybe that is a good unit for me. Dolphins at Foxborough Week 1. I liked Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC) last year as the best of the Chargers backs not named Ekeler, and I think someone not named Ekeler gets a lot of early-down work this year. And I think it is Kelley. Gerrid Doaks (RB – MIA) is a dart throw, Week 1 waiver fodder choice. I don’t think Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA) gets as much early-down work as people think.
How Did I Do?
I give myself a B (not a B+ but a B). Not the best team that I have drafted this year but I do like it a lot. I will need my RBs to be good. And I need to be right about at least a couple of my second-year WRs And I will likely need to find another RB gem on the waiver wire, but I plan to do that every season in every league. It typically works out for me. Not necessarily in this room, though.
Apparently, the guys in the podcast video room blasted my team. And this assessment from an outside service doesn’t look good, either:
What can I say? According to this, I have a TE advantage over 10/13 teams. An advantage at WR over four teams and am very comparable to three others. Plus I draft better players than most, so there is that. They’re just undervalued on this stupid chart. I believe my RBs are competitive enough and this QB assessment is also very dumb. Can’t even fit the ‘QB’ font into the red. Pfffft. Fields/Fitzpatrick are going to slay. Well anyway, many in the industry talk about owning your takes, keeping receipts, putting your money where your mouth is, so I am posting this. Feel free to let me know what you think of the roster. I am going to compare where I took these players to where they are in FPC contests:
Fields looks like the only reach in this list that isn’t within a few picks. I didn’t really get any value here other than to say I think I picked some good names. GL to the rest of the league!
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
