Rookie Analysis
Whether the running back position “matters” in football can be debated, and likely will continue to be debated as analytics become more commonplace, however, it cannot be argued that running backs are ultimately the lifeblood of a fantasy football roster. In this segment, we will be looking at the hit rate of rookie running backs based on the inputs of draft capital, and age. Using DLF’s trade finder tool we will look at the market value of some of the top running backs in the league. For this exercise, to stay uniform with the quarterback segment, we are using values based on superflex leagues.
Wide receiver is the position in which analysts have the most different inputs for analyzing prospects. This is because it is by far the hardest position to analyze, whether that be grinding film or navigating through advanced metrics. This is because the college game for wide receivers is so drastically different than how the position is played in the NFL. Wide receivers have less room to operate, they are hit at the line of scrimmage, and they are playing against more skilled and more athletic defenders than they ever have. In this segment, we will be exploring historical hit rates with draft capital and age as the only two components.
There has been a meteoric rise in the number of dynasty leagues that are either starting up as Superflex leagues or transitioning to Superflex leagues, it is the way to go. Now there will always be a nostalgic place for one quarterback leagues for fantasy football players, but devaluing the most important position in football, arguably in all of sports does not hold much value anymore.
Shooters shoot and I’ve taken my fair share, and today I will admit to an airball I took. Giving dynasty advice is essentially just making an educated guess, but we still need to admit when we’re wrong. I still like my process and trust my rookie evaluation process, but I’m ready to admit I have swung and missed. I’ll dive right into my miss and touch on some other rookies below.
The push for the playoffs is upon us. In just a few weeks some of us will be sweating all Monday night to see if we snuck into the playoffs. We may end up counting on a rookie like Brandon Aiyuk or Zack Moss to carry us to victory that Monday night as the 49ers host the Bills to close out what will be the final regular-season game for many fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look at some rookie performances from Week 9 and how it affects their value moving forward.
We did it, fam! We’re officially halfway through the ridiculous 2020 fantasy football season. It has been a crazy one, with plenty of drama and anxiety over rescheduled games and all the other headaches that have come with this football season’s tussle with COVID-19. We have had players from the 2020 rookie class we have been able to count on, and some that have fallen on their faces and cost our teams precious points. Let’s take a look at what happened in Week 8 and how we can use that information to help teams down the stretch of this unique season.
Mr. Bryant, my pre-draft TE1, has found himself in a pretty good situation, at least for the next couple of weeks. Before Week 7, Bryant was operating as the Browns’ TE2. Although not a flashy title, it still allowed Bryant to see around 50% of the offensive snaps. However, last Friday, October 23 it was announced that the Browns starting TE Austin Hooper would miss Sunday’s game after having his appendix surgically removed that Friday. The Browns later named Harrison Bryant the starting TE and he did not let them down. In Bryant’s first NFL start he eclipsed Hooper’s single-game high for touchdowns with two and nearly passed his single-game yardage high of 57 with 56 of his own.
What is up, party people, and welcome back for the sixth edition of the “Rookie Stock Market”. It has been a crazy season thus far. The season has had its ups and downs, and so has this rookie class. Eb and flow are to be expected for rookies, but it has not stopped a few from being within the top 12 of their positional scoring. James Robinson (RB7), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB11), Justin Jefferson (WR7), and CeeDee Lamb (WR10) have all been great and contributors in your lineups as their dynasty values rise. Not all the rookies can be studs and some rookies appear to be studs when they really aren’t. Let’s dive in once again.
Week 5 of the NFL season has come and gone and we are now almost one-third of the way through the NFL regular season “shocked face”. As we approach this milestone in the season we are still learning a lot about the rookies each and every week. Some flash, some stumble, but what I aim to do here is help you make informed decisions based on their performances. Let’s begin, shall we?
With four weeks of NFL action behind us, we are now really starting to get a good idea about who’s the real deal. Joe Burrow looks like the QB we hoped he would be, and Justin Jefferson is looking like a great asset. However, there are still plenty of rookies not on the top of their games, for several different reasons, that will surely be assets later this season or next. Per usual, I will dive into some “Risers”, “Fallers”, “Buys” and “Sells” while assessing their Week 4 performance and long term outlook.
We’re three games into the season and we are starting to see what a lot of these rookies are made of. This past weekend the WRs were in the spotlight with several having very impactful games. However, there is a rookie WR who I am beginning sour on. Week 3 of the “Rookie Stock Market” begins below!
Thanks for tuning in to the second edition of the Rookie Stock Market. With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, trends are beginning to form. Let’s take a closer look, as we identify early season “Risers”, “Fallers”, “Buys”, and “Sells”.
What really sets apart dynasty fantasy football from redraft football is the constant and never-ending ebb and flow of player values, specifically young players and rookies. Increasing the overall value of your team happens when you sell high and buy low, living by the classic stock market analogy. One way to having a truly stacked roster is getting out in front of young players and rookies before they blow up and become a real force in the league and an asset to your dynasty team. The point of this weekly article is to monitor the values of rookies each week identifying risers, fallers, buys, and sells, helping you come out ahead in the “Rookie Stock Market”, setting your team up for long term success.
The 2020 rookie class was a loaded group that had dynasty owners’ attention for years. I’ve written about the class three separate times: before the NFL Draft, live during the NFL Draft, and about a month ago. I’ve included all the links to those previous series at the bottom of the page. However, in those articles, I focused on the rookies from a redraft perspective and how they will impact redraft rosters in 2020.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come. This is Part 6 of the series, where @ff_spaceman and I discuss rookie Bryan Edwards.
Given AJ Dillon’s massive frame, penchant for stiff arms, and his ability to break tackles and find space against stacked boxes, he seems like the ideal candidate for a massive workload in the coming seasons. He is the exact running back type that the Packers want to pound the rock during the winter months at the Frozen Tundra.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We saw four quarterbacks get drafted in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL draft. While all have aspirations to be the face of their respective franchises, all have very different avenues to get there. In this article, I lay out each of these QB’s paths to their starting role, and when I expect them […]
The DFF team recently did a post-draft superflex rookie mock. In this piece, I’m going to focus solely on my draft from the #9 slot. I want to dive into the four players I picked and concentrate on the value of those selections in the superflex dynasty format.
Continuing my “A Look Back” series, I wanted to go back even further than the 2019 regular season and reference some of my 2019 pre-draft content. I already covered the rookie targets in my last piece, so now let’s look at the three guys I said to avoid.