Rookie Analysis
Davis Mills was ranked as the top overall quarterback in the class of 2017, ahead of Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones. Mills took over as the starting quarterback for Stanford as a true freshman. Mills accumulated just 3,468 passing yards and 18 TDs versus eight INTs in his four-year collegiate career at Stanford. Mills is strictly a pocket-passer and does not offer any threat on the ground for defenders.
Kellen Mond took over as the starting quarterback for Texas A&M as a true freshman. Mond accumulated 9,661 passing yards and 71 TDs versus 27 INTs in his four-year collegiate career at Texas A&M. Mond is a capable rusher as he compiled 1,609 rushing yards and 22 TDs in his four seasons.
Kyle Trask took over as the starting quarterback for Florida as a sophomore when then Gators quarterback Felipe Franks went down to injury and never gave Franks a chance to get the job back. In his career, Trask completed 552 of 813 pass attempts, a 67.9% rate. He threw for 7,386 yards, 69 touchdowns, and just 15 interceptions which equates to a 168.5 passer rating. Trask leaves much to be desired as a rushing threat, he has a total of 54 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 132 attempts. He won’t be boosting his fantasy production with much work on the ground.
Despite being overshadowed by his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall is an excellent prospect in his own right. He’s got prototypical size and impressive athleticism. He broke out at an early age and demonstrated his ability to dominate an offense. He did fall a little further than expected in the draft, but as a second round, he will be given every opportunity to succeed in the league. I believe Marshall is firmly entrenched as a top-five wide receiver in this class, perhaps even top three. He’s an excellent player to target at the backend of the first round or early second round in Superflex rookie drafts.
At his Louisville Pro Day, Tutu Atwell measured in at 5’9” and 155 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 22.9. His 40-yard dash time was 4.44-seconds, his burst score was 114.6, and his agility score was 10.96. All of these metrics are pretty average for his size, but they are not awful which is all that matters for a WR. Tutu’s only red flag here would be his BMI, and his BMI being so low is a little scary. I do not feel BMI and size are too predictive for NFL success, but we just haven’t seen anyone this small before so it is hard to say for sure.
D’Wayne Eskridge had 121 receptions for 2,244 yards in his five-year college career at Western Michigan. He is one of the older wide receivers in this class at 24 years old and played an extra season as a super senior after being converted to a defensive back in 2019 and suffering a clavicle injury that ended his year. Eskridge didn’t truly break out until his sophomore season and comes in with a BOA of 20.5 (52nd percentile). He finished the 2020 season with 33 receptions for 768 yards and eight touchdowns, accounting for an incredible 45% of his team’s offensive production and 5.95 adjusted yards per team pass attempt. The offense ran through him.
Pat Freiermuth | Penn State 6’5” 251 lbs. 10/25/1999 (Age […]
Rondale Moore broke out as a true freshman in a huge way in 2018. He compiled an FBS-leading 114 receptions in 2018, exceeding 1200 yards and scoring 12 receiving TDs. He also added 21 carries for 213 rushing yards and two more rushing TDs. Moore even returned punts (12) and kicks (33). That season, he won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile college football player. He was a consensus first-team All-American as an all-purpose player, first-team all-conference pick, the Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year, and its Freshman of the Year.
My third-ranked running back in the class, Javonte Williams finds himself packing his bags and heading to…Denver…Yikes! Denver traded up to get ahead of Miami, but Atlanta trading out of this spot is even more confusing! Melvin Gordon has only one year left on his contract and it seems like Williams will look to follow in the steps of Nick Chubb, who spent a portion of his rookie season behind Carlos Hyde before Hyde was traded. Williams will be contending with Gordon all year which makes his immediate fantasy impact unlikely. The bright side is that the Broncos offense is surrounded by talented players and the defense should keep games close. The downside is that Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater is going to be his quarterback until they can figure that out. Gordon takes a slight hit, but he won’t be completely replaced this year. Gordon is still someone I’m looking to trade for on the cheap end, while Williams will fall in my rookie rankings due to the long-term situation in Denver.
Elijah Moore has one of the more impressive prospect profiles in this class. He has incredible speed and agility and the necessary traits to become an elite slot receiver at the NFL level. I will not be surprised if Moore quickly becomes a PPR machine and perennial WR2. He deserves consideration as a top-five wide receiver in this class, though he will likely slot in (no pun intended) closer to sixth or seventh. I’ll be targeting Moore in the early-second round of my Superflex rookie drafts.
Etienne has one of the safest floors at the running back position due to his receiving ability and speed. He’ll be a menace running outside and in the screen game, while being no slouch on the inside either. He may not end up as a goalline back, but he doesn’t need to be close to score. Running behind a worse offensive line in 2020 than 2019 after losing talent to the NFL draft, Etienne consistently showed the ability to make something out of nothing. Even if it’s just two yards, the little things add up when you can make a negative play into a positive. They added up enough for me to have him inch out Najee Harris as my RB1 in this class.
Najee Haris was already in my top ten rookies for fantasy and now that he is officially the first running back off the board, that might even give him the edge over Travis Etienne for the top running back in the class. Harris now has a sweet five-year contract locked up which will take him through his age 27 season. It was very difficult to find faults in the film and most of the cons came from the context of what he did while being surrounded by loads of NFL talent. I’m not pushing Harris far up my board because this was an expected outcome and his first-round draft capital was mostly baked into his ranking already.
In four seasons at Florida, Toney compiled 120 receptions for 1,590 yards and 12 touchdowns. Toney also carried the ball 66 times for 580 yards and two touchdowns during his college career. He didn’t see the field a ton during his first three seasons, but he turned into a star his Senior year. He caught 70 passes for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns to go along with 161 rushing yards and another touchdown. He was used strictly as a Wide Receiver his Senior year, whereas he was used as more of a utility player during his first three seasons. His 10 receiving touchdowns placed him tied for seventh in the country amongst Wide Receivers in 2020.
Mac Jones is a quarterback who will reflect the system he is in, and the Patriots do not have much to work with outside their free-agent tight end additions. He will be drafted higher than the typically QB5 in a Superflex Rookie Draft, however, he does not become a value until the late second-round. He could have a long career paired up with legendary coach Bill Belichick, but his upside is capped as a QB2 with the weapons that surround him.
Fields is a true dual-threat Konami Code quarterback worthy of consideration at the 1.01 pick in Superflex leagues. Justin Fields remains as the QB2 in the 2021 NFL Draft class, however with the bad landing spot one may choose to go with a top pass-catcher or running back as the second and third picks in Superflex Rookie Drafts.
In his four years at Alabama, Smith accumulated 235 receptions for 46 total TDs and nearly 4000 yards (3965). He was extremely productive in college and surpassed even Ja’Marr Chase’s impressive 2019 season this past year. Even with two first-rounders on the team in 2019, Smith was able to post a 1000-yard season, giving him a breakout age of 20.8. He had a college dominator of 51.3%, good enough to place him in the 96th percentile. Add that to a target share of 34.6% which put him in the 95th percentile. His catch rate over the last two seasons was nearly 80% (79.1, 79.6). DeVonta Smith was a beast in college, and he has the production to back it up.
Jaylen Waddle has the speed that an opposing defense must account for pre-snap on every play of the game. He immediately enters the league as one of the fastest WRs in the world. He has all the tools to become a number one WR in the NFL. Waddle should be the second or third WR selected in dynasty rookie drafts. He will be a mid-late first-round pick in SF leagues and an early-mid first-round pick in 1QB leagues. Waddle also offers value in the return game, for owners whose leagues provide points for return yardage and return TDs.
Ja’Marr Chase had 107 receptions for 2,093 yards and 23 TDs during his two-year college career at LSU. As a true sophomore, Chase put together one of the most impressive seasons in college football history. He hauled in 84 receptions for 1,780 yards and 20 TDs. Chase accounted for 33.4% of LSU’s historic passing attack, averaged 3.14 yards per team pass attempt, and 2.03 adjusted yards per team play. His adjusted performance index is in the 97th percentile of all college receivers since 2000, and his 21.2 yards per reception rank in the 96th percentile.
At his Pro Day, Kyle Pitts measured just under 6’6” and 246 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.58. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.44-seconds which equates to a 126-Speed Score, and at 6’5” that is a 129-Height Adjusted Speed Score, both figures are in the top 99th percentile across all offensive skill positions. If that doesn’t impress you, just turn on the tape from this past year where he made defenses look clueless and Kyle Trask a potential NFL starting quarterback.
Lance took over as the starting quarterback for North Dakota State as a redshirt freshman. Lance accumulated just 2,786 passing yards and 28 TDs versus zero INTs in his one-year collegiate career at North Dakota State. I removed the single-game 2020 statistics from his totals because of the nature that North Dakota State scheduled the game for NFL Draft candidates, before playing a Spring Season. Lance also proved to be an elite rusher with 1,182 career rushing yards and 16 TDs on the ground.
Rashod Bateman produced 147 career receptions for 2,395 yards and 19 touchdowns during his three seasons at Minnesota University. During his freshman season, Bateman made himself known by catching 51 passes for 704 yards and six touchdowns. He then turned into one of the most productive receivers in the nation during his sophomore season. In 15 games played, Bateman tallied 60 receptions for 1,219 yards (14th in NCAA) and 11 touchdowns (T-18th in NCAA). Although he only played in five games during his junior season, he still produced 36 receptions for 472 yards and two touchdowns. If he were to keep that pace during a 15-game season, he would have hypothetically produced 108 receptions for 1,416 yards and six touchdowns.
Zach Wilson took over as the starting quarterback for BYU as a true freshman. Wilson accumulated 7,652 passing yards and 56 TDs versus only 15 INTs in his three-year collegiate career at BYU. He also proved to be a capable rusher with 642 career rushing yards and 15 TDs on the ground. Though he averaged only three yards per rush (including sacks).
Trevor Lawrence took over as the starting quarterback for Clemson as a true freshman. That season concluded with Lawrence leading the Clemson Tigers to a National Championship. In his career, Lawrence completed 758 of 1,138 pass attempts, a 66.6% rate. He threw for 10.098 yards, 90 TDs, and just 17 INTs which equates to a 164.3 passer rating. Lawrence also added 943 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the ground. Just to remind the reader, college rushing stats include sacks and kneel-downs.
In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.
In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.