Stonk Down
Quarterback
Davis Mills
Week 7 Stats – Passing: 25/32 Attempts | 135 Yards | 0/0 TD/INT | Rush: 0/0/0 | 1 FUM
Sacks Taken: 2
Consider Davis Mills as the Gamestop of rookie stonks. He was hot for a few weeks and now some folks are stuck holding an empty bag. Mills put up another dud week against the Cardinals and hasn’t given the coaching staff a reason to keep the starting job while Tyrod Taylor is back at practice and expected to start soon and tanks value for the season. There’s no reason to speculate that the Texans view Davis Mills as the future of the franchise, so I wouldn’t plan on him having a future with your dynasty roster. Next year is shaping up to be a mediocre quarterback class and saves a shred of value to not outright drop the rookie in SF formats, but I’d try to ship him off to clog somebody else’s roster.
Value Estimation: Whatever you can get or use him as a throw-in for a trade.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Justin Fields
Week 7 Stats – Passing: 22/32 Attempts | 184 Yards | 0/3 TD/INT | Rush: 8/38/0 | 2 FUM
Sacks Taken: 4
The only way Justin Fields’ stock could get any lower is if he lost his starting job to Andy Dalton. That doesn’t seem like such a bad thing with the astronomical amount of pressure he’s receiving and might keep him healthy in a dire situation. The rookie is getting very little help from anyone outside of his running game and shouldn’t be considered startable until further notice. This just means it’s easier to get him on your bench while you wait on him to boom after a coaching change and offensive line upgrades. I’ve mentioned the Three P’s of Quarterback success being Protection, Play-Making, and Play-Calling. Fields is lacking two of those things. We’re betting on talent that a quality coach can come in and harness.
Value Estimation: A late first-rounder or Zach Wilson and an asset to get a rookie QB with much higher upside.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Zach Wilson
Week 7 Stats – Passing: 6/10 Attempts | 51 Yards | 0/0 TD/INT | Rush: 0/0/0
Sacks Taken: 1
Let’s hope this is rock bottom for Zach Wilson after suffering a PCL injury that will sideline him for 2-4 weeks. We shouldn’t expect the Jets to rush their rookie back while they have a 1-6 record and should’ve already been deemed unhelpful to rosters during the 2021 season. This is only delaying progress through experience. The Jets continue to have offensive line issues and have a poor reputation of developing talent, but I’m still willing to gamble on the new coaching staff another season to buy a rookie with talent in SF formats.
Value Estimation: Your best bet is getting him in a package deal where you’re selling proven vets during a rebuild.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard
Week 7 Stats – Rush: 12/28/0 | Receiving: 4/28/0
Snap Share: 53%
Another rough day for the entire Panthers’ offense as their offensive line woes continues to plague their quarterback and give little room for Chuba Hubbard to make a play. It’s a real testament to Christian McCaffrey’s skill that he’s able to gain high production behind such a poor offensive line. Hubbard isn’t bad but his team had a bad game and this makes him a solid starter until McCaffrey is off IR. You’re still selling unless you’re contending with a high chance of winning
Value Estimation: Second-Rounder.
Buy or Sell High: Yes
Rhamondre Stevenson
Week 7 Stats – Healthy Scratch because Belichick hates Fantasy Football.
It doesn’t look like Rhamondre Stevenson is going to be taking over the backfield anytime this season, and the RB2 role behind Damien Harris will be a weekly competition between him and J.J. Taylor. This makes him a stressful weekly flex option for the season and still worth a spot on your fantasy team for the future. The rookie has proven to play faster than his workout times and has surprised everyone with receiving ability to go along with the power and could be a boom in the next two seasons.
Value Estimation: Late second or Chase Edmonds for Stevenson and an early second.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Week 7 Stats – Receiving: 0/0/0
Snap Share: 62%
Target Share: Boo
Zero targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown after three modest weeks in a row is a gut check to those ready to start him. I’d consider this a fluke and not a trend that we should see in many games. This coaching staff is committed to the rookie and wants to keep him on the field which will translate to plenty of opportunities for a talented route-runner. St. Brown will go as far as Jared Goff can take an offense, so you’re buying him knowing that better days are more likely once Detroit secures their quarterback situation with better talent.
Value Estimation: Don’t pay higher than a second or in a deal that you where you’re offloading older talent for St. Brown plus a pick.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Running Back
Michael Carter
Week 7 Stats – Rush: 11/37/0 | Receiving: 8/67/0 | 1 Fum
Snap Share: 72%
Michael Carter might be the most useful Jets player for fantasy going forward. The rookie out of UNC has taken full command of the backfield and is finally seeing an uptick of receiving work to compensate for the inefficient running game to make him a flexy option every week. It’s worth noting that much of the receiving work came after backup QB Mike White took over for the injured Zach Wilson so it’s unknown if this is a correlation or causation. The Jets just traded for veteran Joe Flacco as they prepare to be without Wilson for 2-4 weeks but won’t be able to play for another week and leaving us with more White and hopefully more check downs. It’s still unknown if the passing production will stick once Flacco takes over and Wilson returns but Carter has at least shown that he can be a versatile weapon that gives this stagnant offense a spark.
Value Estimation: A late first-rounder. But moving old talent is better than picks.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins
Week 7 Stats: Receiving: 2/28/0
Snap Share: 63%
Target Share: 5 Targets – 16%
Davis Mills is likely done as the starting quarterback for the season and we’re praying that Tyrod Taylor can build on the success he had earlier in the season. Nico Collins needs a quarterback that can help convert the targets and snap share he’s receiving into actual production. Taylor can extend plays and has the veteran savvy to move through his progressions and make quality decisions presnap which will boost this entire offense. Collins provides a key size element that no other receiver can provide and you’ll want to hold onto him until we see more with a better quarterback.
Elijah Moore
Week 7 Stats: Receiving: 1/13/0 | Rushing: 1/19/1
Snap Share: 57%
Target Share: 6 Targets – 14%
It was a frustratingly inefficient day for Elijah Moore that was saved by a rushing touchdown. Nobody should’ve had him in their lineups but it’s still nice to see the staff manufacture touches and give him a healthy snap share. I don’t see Moore having any value this season but is still a talented player with room to grow. You’re keeping him stashed as long as possible.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Mac Jones
Week 7 Stats – Passing: 24/36 Attempts | 307 Yards | 2/0 TD/INT | Rush: 3/19/0
Sacks Taken: 1
The Mac Jones-led Patriots are improving on offense and are following the usual trend of being slow starters that improve each game. It could be argued that Jones is a fumble and coaching decision away from being 5-2 on the season and that might garner him more attention. The rookie from Alabama continues to do everything as asked and now the coaching staff is finally getting aggressive and dialing up bigger plays. Furthermore, the Patriots’ offensive line has improved and opened up things both on the ground and through the air. This week should be considered closer to Jones’ ceiling for the season but the floor is looking higher as long as the offense can stay productive.
Value Estimation: Every bit of a first-rounder. Mac Jones is a better bet than any other rookie next season.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell
Week 7 Stats – Rush: 5/20/0 | Receiving: 4/41/1 | 1 FUM
Snap Share: 51%
Kenneth Gainwell’s stock just got a huge bump now that Miles Sanders has been placed on IR. Boston Scott will eat into the early-down roles in this offense, but It’s hard to see Gainwell’s snap share dipping below 50% until Sanders returns. The Eagles have favorable matchups against the Lions and Chargers, but HC Nick Sirianni has a habit of abandoning the run against the team’s own interest. Gainwell has been productive despite the offensive struggles so now he should be considered a low-end RB2 going forward.
Value Estimation: An early second but we could see this rise depending on the snap split between him and Scott.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Khalil Herbert
Week 7 Stats – Rush: 18/100/0 | Receiving: 5/33/0
Snap Share: 77%
Khalil Herbert continues to impress as the RB1 and is the lone bright spot on Chicago’s offense. Herbert is an electric and decisive runner that is making plays despite the struggling offensive line and is shaping up to be a Tony Pollard-like backup that could still have flex value even after David Montgomery returns. The rookie is playing like a complete and versatile back that will be serviceable on early downs or passing situations. There’s a spot for him on any roster.
Value Estimation: A late second-rounder especially if you have a spare.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Elijah Mitchell
Week 7 Stats – Rush: 18/107/1 | Receiving: *Sad Face*
Snap Share: 63%
Elijah Mitchell continues to dominate the 49ers ‘backfield and is running as efficiently as any player should in this system. Trey Sermon has been relegated to a special teams player and doesn’t seem to be a threat, however, JaMycal Hasty has returned and received 34% of the snaps as the third-down back. This will cap Mitchell’s receiving production but the 49ers have a running scheme that gives its players a chance to score anytime they touch the ball. Mitchell lacks size but has the burst to replicate Raheem Mostert’s production and can actually stay on the field. So far anyway. Mitchell should be considered the second-ranked rookie running back behind only Najee Harris.
Value Estimation: A late first but would rather move aging vets to get Mitchell with a pick due to the 49er’s usual fluctuating backfield.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith
Week 7 Stats – Receiving – 5/61/0
Snap Share: 87%
Target Share: 9 Targets – 26%
DeVonta Smith bounced back with a modest week after a down game as expected and continues to produce as the Eagles WR1. You could argue that Smith would be putting up bigger numbers if the Eagles had a healthy offensive line to help with efficiency. Smith is already a weekly starter with high value as a rookie but this just means he probably hasn’t seen his ceiling and will increase in value.
Value Estimation: A high first-rounder plus a second or a vet like DeAndre Hopkins.
Buy or Sell High: An expensive buy
Rashod Bateman
Week 7 Stats: Receiving: 3/80/0
Snap Share: 63%
Target Share: 6 Targets – 14%
The breakout seems imminent for Rashod Bateman after another game of solid usage. The Ravens are going into a bye week and Bateman has more time to get his legs back underneath him and gel with his star quarterback after returning from injury. Baltimore’s rookie looks comfortable as the strong-handed chain mover to compliment Marquise Brown’s big-play ability and the offense as a whole is having to rely heavier on the passing game, so volume shouldn’t dissuade you from targeting a talented first-rounder.
Value Estimation: An early second-rounder or late first.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
To the Moon
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Week 7 Stats: Receiving: 7/163/0
Snap Share: 67%
Target Share: 8 Targets – 20%
I can no longer keep Kyle Pitts out of this category and is second to only Calvin Ridley in target share and should be in every lineup going forward. It’s hard imagining Kyle Pitts being affordable to anybody but is a matchup nightmare for teams to cover. Tight Ends suck as always and Pitts has inserted himself as dynasty TE1
Think I’m too high on Bateman? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
