Stonk Down
Quarterback
Justin Fields
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 12/20 Attempts | 111 Yards | 1/0 TD/INT | Rush: 3/4/0, 1 FUM
Sacks Taken: 2
Justin Fields recorded his first NFL Touchdown and secured the win, yet it was another disappointing fantasy performance for a player who would have top-10 potential if Nagy would just run the ball with him. The rookie out of OSU has an uphill battle to fantasy relevance with poor usage. Fields has only two more RPO attempts than fellow rookie Davis Mills after three starts for both which is the best comparison I can give to demonstrate wasted athleticism. It doesn’t help that Fields is the *third-highest pressured quarterback in the league that is contributing to his poor accuracy and league-high 30% Bad Pass Rate according to Pro-Football Reference. The situation is killing the rookies stock, but the talent is undeniable. Consider this a discount for those who missed him in Rookie Drafts.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
*Min 3 Starts
Zach Wilson
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 19/32 Attempts | 192 Yards | 0/1 TD/INT | Rush: 1/3/0
Sacks Taken: 2
Speaking of rookies underperforming due to poor offensive lines and inaccuracy, Zach Wilson regressed back to a single-digit fantasy scorer even up against an easy matchup like the Atlanta Falcons. The only difference is that I actually have faith in the coaching staff at the top. Wilson has all the pressure and no rushing game which is a bad combination for a rookie. The Jets routinely find themselves in predictable 3rd and Long situations that make it difficult for Wilson and the offense to extend and finish drives that lead to more fantasy production. It’s even harder when you factor in that the rookie is facing pressure 29.4% of plays. However, I see light at the end of the tunnel.
I believe in first-year HC Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur unlike how I feel about the Bears. They’re already working to remedy the line problems. Fellow rookie Alijah Vera-Tucker was drafted in the 1st Round after Wilson and just received a PFF score of 92.4 and is finally living up to that potential, and second-year player Mekhi Becton is set to return from injury and will give a big boost to the offense as a whole. Wilson will need a year to have any real fantasy relevance as the team grows around him and he settles down and irons out footwork. I’m still not ready to bail yet.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy if you’re tanking or have room to stash
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 2/16/0 | Receiving – 1/8/0
Snap Share: 24%
I don’t understand the running back usage in Philidelphia, but I do know that we shouldn’t be fading Kenneth Gainwell anytime soon. Gainwell and Sanders are clearly the 1A and 1B and nobody else matters (Boston Scott) matters. But the question is who is A or B every week behind an offensive line that is riddled with injuries again. I’ve gained confidence in Nick Sirriani and bought into his scheme, but again we have young players being held back by teammates losing the trench battles. Gainwell is an explosive back with fantastic receiving chops and the usage on 3rd Down and Two-Minute Drills that give players high fantasy upside. Getting Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson back from injury will help the entire offense, including Gainwell.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Trey Sermon
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 1/7/0 | Receiving – Nada
Snap Share: 3%
If you read last week’s Stock Report you had a heads-up that Elijah Mitchell is the Alpha until further notice. Your best bet is selling him to whoever owns Mitchell in your league as a handcuff.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 2/14/0
Snap Share: 76%
Target Share: 3 Targets – 8%
It was a frustrating game for the entire Panthers offense and we were left with high snap share and low production again. The return of Christian McCaffery should relieve pressure on the entire offense by drawing attention from the defense and creating openings and one-on-one coverage downfield. The boom is coming, we just need to be patient.
But or Sell the Dip: Buy
Jaylen Waddle
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 2/31/0
Snap Share: 80%
Target Share: 6 Targets – 15%
Production is hard to come by when you’re playing the reigning Super Bowl Champs with a backup QB, so there’s no reason to panic about Jaylen Waddle. Even Better, Tua Tagovailoa is set to return in Week 6. Waddle has still had the volume you’d expect from an Alpha, but not the aDOT to be efficient with it while Brissett has been under center. Now we can expect more deep shots and longer targets for the dynamic rookie with a quarterback who can throw and DeVante Parker on the mend.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Trade for him ASAP
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Quarterback
Mac Jones
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 23/30 Attempts | 231 Yards | 1/1 TD/INT | Rush: 1/3/0
Sacks Taken: 1
Mac Jones has been as steady and consistent as Julio Jones on the weekly Injury Report. The most progress we’ve hoped for is more aggressive playcalling and scoring opportunities and we finally found the aggression part. He gets pass-catching help as well now that Hunter Henry has been a helpful playmaker over the middle of the field. Jones is still unsexy as a prospect but has a safe floor and potential. It’s just up to the coaching staff to nurture that potential.
Trey Lance
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 15/29 Attempts | 192 Yards | 0/1 TD/INT | Rush: 16/89/0
Sacks Taken: 2
Trey Lance gets his first full NFL start that could only be described as “Meh.” Rushing production saved the day from being a complete dud, but passing left much to be desired. The rookie has incredible escape instincts and won’t take many sacks, but his biggest areas of improvement are accuracy and presnap reads. That will only come with time and experience.
Lance has a problem identifying what zone coverage he’s seeing before the snap. This isn’t to say he isn’t seeing zone, but that he makes the wrong zone read or incorrectly adjusts his route reads when he does actually identify the correct zone coverage. This leads to scary incompletions or turnovers that will stall drives but is something that can be fixed in the film room when your head coach is one of the best minds in football. The rookie QB picked up a sprained knee and will undoubtedly head to the bench after the bye to give him more time to develop. This might open up a buy window so shoot your shot where you can.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 9/43/0 | Receiving – 2/19/0
Snap Share: 68%
Elijah Mitchell is the back-to-own in San Francisco. The 49ers looked flat as a whole while their first-year quarterback struggled which limited what should’ve been a productive and efficient day for his fellow rookie running back. Mitchell is playing with more explosion than Trey Sermon and fits the team running scheme better as well. His biggest downside will be durability and usage in the passing game, but the rushing production has the highest ceiling. It’s no secret what Shannahan can do for backs so, you’re riding with him until further notice.
Wide Receiver
Rondale Moore
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 5/59 | Rushing – 3/38/0
Snap Share: 48%
Target Share: 6 Target – 19%
It was Rondale Moore’s turn to boom in the Cardinals’ explosive offense. Moore will be a flexy boom-or-bust player that should be in lineups more weeks than not. The rookie is still inside the top-40 overall despite playing less than 48% of snaps. I doubt there’s any stopping him once that percentage hits north of 50%. It’s even sweeter that he’s attached to an MVP-caliber quarterback on a team that should be contending through his whole rookie contract. You’re not letting him off your roster.
DeVonta Smith
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 7/77/0
Snap Share: 93%
Target Share: 9 Target – 22%
The top three receivers of the 2021 NFL Draft have all been worth their stock both in the real NFL and in fantasy. DeVonta Smith has established himself as the Eagles’ WR1 and has been a consistent fantasy WR3 with WR1 upside against favorable matchups. The biggest hurdle keeping him from being a WR2 as a rookie is the offense’s inefficiency as a whole due to an injury-plagued offensive line. The Eagles haven’t been able to establish a solid running game to set up easier 3rd Downs to extend drives, but the upside for the entire offense to boom is there once Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson can stay on the field together.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 9/112/1
Snap Share: 69%
Target Share: 10 Target – 22%
The Kyle Pitts breakout game finally happened and fantasy owners can rejoice. The highest-drafted rookie tight end of all time put on a show in London as the top target in Calvin Ridley’s absence. It was nice to see the Falcons use him like the explosive mismatch nightmare he was at Florida, but I still want to see him used like that with Ridley. This would boost the entire offense as a whole and create scoring opportunities that give fantasy boosts. But they played the Jets. The Falcons have struggled behind another mediocre offensive line and Matt Ryan’s deteriorating arm but got it done against one of the worst teams in the league. So I’d want to see this production replicated against an above-average defense and with Ridley back in the lineup. I don’t mean to sound negative about a generational talent, but want to ensure that we all stay grounded in reality. Pitts is undoubtedly the real deal, but this may not be the year to have this kind of production consistently.
Overall, Kyle Pitts might be the most untradeable player in Dynasty. You’re never going to get the value you want out of a premium-position generational talent and you shouldn’t sell the house to get him. Rebuilding teams shouldn’t be trading the assets needed to get a player with his potential and contending teams haven’t seen enough to buy an expensive rookie tight end on a bad team to be the X-Factor that puts you over the edge. Pitts isn’t getting any more expensive, but he can get better. Just hang onto him or wait to buy him in the off-season.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Davis Mills
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 21/29 Attempts | 312 Yards | 3/0 TD/INT | Rush: 1/2/0
Sacks Taken: 3
Davis Mills almost beating Bill Belichick is the biggest surprise of the week. Mills played an efficient and productive game that was almost won against a team that typically dismantles rookies. Mills has shown the most growth among rookie quarterbacks albeit while having the lowest floor and is beginning to settle down and work through progressions while flashing underrated mobility.
However, this feels like a Gardner Minshew situation. Mills may actually be an NFL-caliber QB, but more like a high-end backup rather than a starter and will probably be replaced when the Texans are in a position to draft a better prospect. I’m not willing to gamble on a long-shot quarterback attached to a rebuild.
Buy or Sell High: We might not get a better chance to sell
Trevor Lawrence
Week 5 Stats: Passing: 23/33 Attempts | 273 Yards | 1/1 TD/INT | Rush: 7/28/1
Sacks Taken: 2
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are figuring out how to put up numbers against the easy matchups which is encouraging. What’s concerning is the controversy surrounding HC Urban Meyer that could be a team distraction. I promise I’m not running a Meyer Hate Account but he makes it to the center of the narrative week after week with his poor decisions on, and now off, the field. Trevor Lawrence is the talent we all think he is, but his coach is holding him back. I’m gonna make lemonade out of the controversy and hope this means he’s one step towards getting fired and a real NFL coach has a shot to nurture Lawrence’s unworldly potential.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 24/101/0 Receiving – 5/33/0
Snap Share: 65%
The Panthers decided to give Chuba Hubbard the usage we expected last week and he’s getting the start again in Week 6 while Christian McCaffery recovers another week. This performance had to have given Carolina the confidence not to rush back their stud and avoid setbacks. It’s nice to see them trust him in the passing game to up his value but he’ll still be behind McCaffery once he returns. If you still have him on your roster you were gifted another week to sell.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Khalil Herbert
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 18/75/0 Receiving – Not Yet
Snap Share: 53%
Khalil Herbert is set to be Chicago’s RB1 for Week 6 after an injury to David Montgomery and Damien Williams being placed on the Covid list. Fortunately enough Herbert has looked like a better prospect than his draft stock would indicate and has made the most of his touches. Herbert is an explosive downhill runner that is a better backup to Montgomery than Williams. If I could get him for cheap he’s a stash I’d love to have stashed on my roster.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Week 5 Stats: 7/65/0
Snap Share: 69%
Target Share: 8 Target – 23%
Again, I apologize for fading Amon-Ra St. Brown so soon. There was plenty to be concerned about after failing to start over the likes of Kalif Raymond, but the coaching staff finally realized they needed to get him more involved so their offense is less concentrated. St. Brown’s usage has increased over the last two weeks and the Lions have found their WR1 to compliment T.J. Hockenson, Jared Goff, and the running backs. The route-runner is worth a flier on any team.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Kadarius Toney
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 10/189/0
Snap Share: 54%
Target Share: 13 Targets – 33%
Kadarius Toney might be my biggest miss of the season. Everybody has one, but it still hurts the same every time. Toney has looked explosive and deadly in the open field and has been the infusion of athleticism the Giants needed in the off-season. The rookie would’ve had a 200-yard day if it weren’t for him getting ejected after throwing a punch. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are out with injury, but you have to think a first-rounder like Toney will have every opportunity to be a key cog in the offense going forward.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
To the Moon
Running Back
Najee Harris
Week 5 Stats: Rush – 23/122/1 Receiving – 2/20/0
Snap Share: 65%
I finally feel comfortable putting Najee Harris in the To the Moon section after posting a solid rushing performance against stout Denver defense. The Steelers have a young offensive line that is growing and improving to help out their rookie running back. This team will simply have to rely on Harris as Ben Roethlisberger continues to decline. The Le’Veon Bell comparisons are more than hyperbole and the rookie will be a true bell cow with every kind of opportunity every week.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase
Week 5 Stats: Receiving – 6/159/1
Snap Share: 91%
Target Share: 10 Target – 26%
Ja’Marr Chase and the rest of the Bengals’ offense looked impressive in a game that was overshadowed by poor kicking. There’s nothing more I can say about Chase, but plenty I can say about the ascension of Joe Burrow that will facilitate the incoming legend status of Chase. The second-year quarterback has been playing like a vet and will take advantage of what the defense gives him without forcing anything downfield. The Bengals chose to draft Chase to be an explosive playmaker that compliments chain mover Tyler Boyd and red zone threat Tee Higgins and Burrow is doing a fantastic job of giving quality targets to the receiver that earns them. It goes without saying that Chase will continue to earn them.
Mad that I told you to fade Toney? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
