Stonk Down
Quarterback
Zach Wilson
Week 3 Stats – Passing: 19/35 Attempts 120 Yards 0/2 TD/INT Rush: 1/2/0
Sacks Taken: 5
The Jets look like the Jets and I’m officially flipping the panic switch. Wilson scored less than one fantasy point for the second week in a row as they faced Denver. To be fair, the Jets have played three top-five defenses in a row, but it still remains to be seen if this is because Denver, Carolina, and New England all played New York. The offensive line continues to be a problem that is affecting Wilson on a mental level. Wilson looked the opposite of the confident and poised player we saw in the preseason and threw an egregious interception by not seeing the defense and working through his progression to take what the defense gives him.
The Jets desperately need to find a way to both buy Wilson time and get the ball out faster. I’m still holding my shares for a week to see if this offense can get anything going against a poor Tennessee defense ranked 25th. This could be the last week of his buy window so cheap, but I’d wait to sell till he turns in some expected better matchups against Tennessee and Atlanta.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Hold for a week.
Trevor Lawrence
Week 3 Stats – Passing: 22/34 Attempts, 219 Yards, 1/2 TD/INT Rush: 1/2/0
Sacks Taken: 3
Trevor Lawrence has to be living his nightmare. It’s been two weeks in a row that the rookie hasn’t been able to turn in a double-digit performance. The Jaguars weren’t just bad as a whole, but Lawrence himself looked like a different player and made poor decisions that turned into turnovers. However, the Jaguars do look better through two halves of Thursday night football. The rookie QB has had to play hero ball to generate any offense and it’s actually working this week. OC Darrell Bevell has incorporated more read-option to give this offense a boost in the run game and Lawrence is executing it perfectly.
This has already paid off for Fantasy no matter what happens with the “real” football implications. Luckily, this actually has improved the offense for real-life purposes. The defense now has to honor the run game, thus creating more time for the play-action to develop. This production boost opens up a higher sell window for those who are still interested in cashing in on a generational talent or gives hope to those who have time to wait on a young team to develop.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Yes
Mac Jones
Week 3 Stats – Passing: 30/51 Attempts 270 Yards 1/3 TD/INT Rush: 6/28/0
Sacks Taken: 2
There are so many problems in New England and none of them are Mac Jones. The offense has seemed broken since Trent Brown went down with a calf injury in week one and has killed the crucial running element. The ground game has been stagnant which is difficult for a passing offense that operates within play-action. Furthermore, Josh McDaniels is calling a conservative passing game that makes it easy for defenses to keep defenders close to the line of scrimmage. The cherry on top? Pass catchers are dropping balls and creating interceptions from tips.
The Patriots will drag this talented rookie into a downward spiral of cascading failures until they can plug the hole at right tackle and open up the field by challenging the defense deep. Pass catchers doing what they’re paid to do could definitely help the rookie and our fantasy teams as well. Luckily, Belichick is one coach we should all be confident in to turn things around
Buy or sell the Dip: Buy
Justin Fields
Week 3 Stats – Passing: 6/20 Attempts, 68 Yards, 0/0 TD/INT Rush: 3/12/0
Sacks Taken: 9
If Bill Belichick is the NFL’s villain, Matt Nagy is the annoying supporting character that everyone hopes the villain kills off. Nagy did nothing to game plan for a quick pass rush, then proceeded to not do anything throughout the game. Nothing I can write has more impact than what the stat line above says. There were few read-option plays and no boots to get a very mobile quarterback moving and playing with his strengths and Fields suffered both physically and in the box score. Consider this a buy-low opportunity for a rookie that will soon have a different coach. Fields has a rare blend of athleticism and arm talent that the NFL hasn’t seen, but needs time and coaching for that to cultivate. Take the discount.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Running Back
Trey Sermon
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 10/31/1 Receiving – 2/3/0
Snap Share: 59%
Sunday Night Football was an indictment of Trey Sermon. The rookie running back finally got the start albeit after two injuries, but quickly lost snaps to fullback Kyle Jusczyzk. Sermon missed blocking assignments, dropped an easy pass, and was ineffective on the ground. The 49ers need a back who can make one cut and take advantage of what the offensive line creates. The offensive line would routinely set a good edge and Sermon would ignore daylight in favor of trying to power through a collapsed hole.
I’m officially fading Sermon behind Mitchell. Mitchell fits what Shanahan wants from his RBs and Sermon doesn’t have a grasp of the offense. Your window to sell is quickly closing.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Ty’Son Williams
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 5/22/0 Receiving – *Womp Womp*
Snap Share: 50%
You probably missed your Ty’son Williams Sell-High window but you still have time to sell him to a sucker who’s desperate for a championship. Greg Roman has said that there wouldn’t be a bell-cow back in Baltimore and everything we’ve seen so far has proven that statement true. Both Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray have been vultures for the rookie because the coaching staff would rather have an old plodder who can pass protect than an explosive rookie. Moreover, Williams doesn’t have value beyond the season and you’ll want to trade him for whatever you can before others wise up to the fact that he has little value now.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Michael Carter
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 9/24/0 Receiving – 2/5/0
Snap Share: 43%
*Insert Jets offensive concerns from Zach Wilson*
No, seriously. Another rookie with talent could be squandered by the same poor offensive line play. The good news is that Carter is steadily taking over the backfield duties. Tevin Coleman is washed and taking a back seat to Carter and fellow vet Ty Johnson. Johnson does look explosive and fits the outside zone system, but Carter has shown every bit of the vision and short-area quickness to break tackles and make defenders miss.
The Jets need to do whatever they can to create plays just like the one above and focus on taking away pressure from Wilson to generate a passing offense through play action. Johnson and Carter can be the perfect one-two punch in a conservative offense but efficient offense if only Mike LaFleur wasn’t so aggressive with a rookie quarterback. The Jets will continue to be in negative game scripts that will force a rookie QB into bad situations that create turnovers. Thus creating fewer opportunities for all the skill players to get scoring opportunities. I still love Michael Carter in a vacuum and am still willing to be patient and take the discount.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Demetric Felton
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 2/13/0
Snap Share: 14%
Target Share: 3 Targets – 6.2%
We should be considering Demetric Felton a wide receiver going forward. The rookie got the expected boost in snaps, but he’s still barely on the field. Felton is an explosive special teamer who can develop into an even more explosive gadget player and deep threat. Veterans Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham have massive contracts and the Browns have a franchise quarterback to sign to a long-term deal, so I’d expect one or both to be cap casualties within the next off-season. Rebuilding teams can get a nice future piece for cheap.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Week 3 Stats: 1/2/0
Snap Share: 43%
Target Share: 1 Target – 8.1%
The Lions are playing much better than anyone thought and absolutely none of it has to do with Amon-Ra St. Brown. The rookie receiver saw a 20% decrease in snap share despite Tyrell Willimas missing with a concussion. I’m unsure of why St. Brown isn’t getting more usage despite the Lions’ praise of him, but the offense is operating through the RBs and T.J. Hockenson and I would rather sell this to somebody else in a rebuild.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Dyami Brown
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – Nada
Snap Share: 65%
Target Share: 2 Targets – 14.3%
Dyami Brown has had more than enough opportunity to establish himself as Washington’s WR2 but hasn’t. Brown’s snaps dropped 22% over the last week and will take a bigger hit now that Curtis Samuel is back at practice from IR. Brown’s 9.7% drop rate has followed him to the NFL and is best used as a vertical threat. Washington might have use for him as long as Taylor Heinicke is running the offense. Contending teams should sell for a draft pick when they can to bolster their future with a different gamble next season.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Rondale Moore
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 2/1
Snap Share: 34%
Target Share: 2 Target – 14.7%
I shouldn’t have to say this, but I will just in case somebody needs to hear it. Don’t panic. Moore will more than likely be a boom-or-bust player in an offense that spreads the ball around. It’s a bit concerning that the snap percentage isn’t higher, but he’s the kind of player that only needs one touch to make a difference. The Kyler Murray-lead Cardinals offense is operating at a high level with talent all over the formation. They don’t need to force the ball to anyone and Murray is blossoming into an elite passer and not just an athlete. He’s seeing the field like a vet and takes advantage of what the defense gives him, and this can mean targeting no-names like Maxx Wiliams seven times or the Ghost of A.J. Green haunting a secondary for 112 yards. Rondale Moore will get more playing time. It’s not a matter of if, but when, so stay aggressive about getting him on your rosters.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 2/35/0
Snap Share: 84%
Target Share: 3 Targets – 22.5%
Every fantasy-relevant Falcons player has a Cordarrelle Patterson and Matt Ryan problem. Ryan looks like he’s doing his best Alex Smith impression by repeatedly checking down instead of pushing the ball downfield, and the check-down option is not Kyle Pitts. We shouldn’t have had too much hope for the rookie to put up top six number this early, but it makes it even worse that an eight-year veteran receiver turned running back is vulturing check-downs that could be easy for a dynamic player like Pitts could capitalize on. Owners should be patient and buyers need to wait on the off-season to strike as expectation temper.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Hold
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Running Back
Javonte Williams
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 12/29/1 Receiving – 3/33/0
Snap Share: 40%
We finally have a touchdown for Williams along with more work in the receiving game. Unfortunately, Melvin Gordon is still getting the edge in snap share and is capping Williams’ ceiling. We can’t expect Gordon to go away too soon because the veteran is still effective. Nothing has changed with the rookie’s situation as a flex option, so hold on tight and be patient.
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 4/48/0
Snap Share: 62%
Target Share: 5 Targets – 13.1%
Marshall had an 11% bump in snap share and his production felt it. Christian McCaffery is out with a hamstring injury which should mean more targets for slot players. It’s very fortunate that the rookie plays most of his snaps in the slot because we’re setting up for a breakout game sooner than later. Sam Darnold looks like the real deal in Carolina and the offense is putting up the 9th most passing yards through three games. Robby Anderson looks like an afterthought in comparison to the rookie, so don’t let veterans like that weaken your resolve to hold onto the rookie.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Davis Mills
Week 3 Stats – Passing: 19/28 Attempts 168 Yards 1/0 TD/INT Rush: 1/0/0
Sacked: 4
Davis MIlls’ didn’t look comfortable during the beginning of his first start but quickly looked like a competent starting quarterback who could deliver strikes all over the field. The rookie ran a conservative offense that mostly consisted of getting the ball to Brandin Cooks anyway he could but developed faster processing that allowed him to work through his progressions. Now I don’t think Davis Mills is anywhere near as talented as the first-round rookie quarterbacks taken ahead of him, but he definitely didn’t look great. If you need to hold MIlls as your quarterback for any reason, you probably aren’t a contender, so try to sell for a more concrete prospect.
Buy or Sell High: Sell for anything you can
Running Back
Najee Harris
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 14/40/0 Receiving – 14/102/0
Snap Share: 95%
It’s going to look ugly for Najee Harris, but he might still finish as a top-10 running back regardless of how ugly it looks if he keeps receiving 19 targets a game. The Steelers’ offensive line is atrocious and Ben Roethlisberger is easily the worst quarterback in the AFC North. The rushing game for Harris looks worse knowing that he routinely gets his carries from the shotgun. This gives him very little room to attack the line of scrimmage with momentum against defenders who are already in the backfield directly after the snap. The Steelers have a problem at quarterback and the offensive line, so I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting my rebuild with a running back who may be going through a real-life rebuild.
Buy or Sell the High: Tentatively selling.
Chuba Hubbard
Week 3 Stats: Rush – 11/52/0 Receiving – 3/27/0
Snap Share: 55%
The Chuba Hubbard lottery ticket has finally hit, and it’s time for non-CMC owners to cash in while they can. Yes, you need to cash in. Hubbard doesn’t have great vision and doesn’t have the offensive line to overcome that major flaw. Hubbard isn’t anywhere near the talent of Christian McCaffrey and desperate owners competing would more than likely pay a second-round that could turn into an actual starter.
Buy or Sell High: Auction to the highest bidder a quickly as possible
Wide Receiver
Jaylen Waddle
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 12/48/0
Snap Share: 88%
Target Share: 13 Targets – 22.5%
Jaylen Waddle will explode as soon as his aDOT increases because he’s demanding plenty of targets to put up WR1 numbers. Most of this can contribute to Jacoby Brissett not being a great passer, so I wouldn’t panic over a misused stat like that. I like Waddle more and more each week as he proves that he’s an all-around fantastic receiver who is more than just a deep burner. The rookie dynamo won’t get any cheaper, so I’d be aggressive in targeting him whenever and wherever I can.
Buy or Sell High: Get him now
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 3/221
Snap Share: 36%
Target Share: 5 Targets – 7.7%
The Steelers are bad, but it’s easier to be patient with a tight end rather than a running back who was an older prospect to begin with. Tight Ends that have a top-10 skill set need to be rostered seeing how disastrous it is to find one and Freiermuth is proving to be an asset the Steelers can rely on to be an asset in pass blocking and make plays when his number is called. It was encouraging to see the Steelers creatively manufacture scoring touches like the one below.
The Steelers have proven that they want to incorporate the rookie as much as possible. This isn’t a flashy play by the rookie, but nobody has doubted his talent thus far and usage like this makes me want to stash him.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Tommy Tremble
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 1/30/0 Rushing – 1/7/1
Snap Share: 26%
Target Share: 1 Target – 0.9%
Tommy Tremble only received two touches on Thursday night, but I’m completely in. Tremble was an athletic physical blocker and breakaway speed to separate at Notre Dame, and Matt Rhule is ready to unleash him after trading starter Dan Arnold to the Jaguars for cornerback C.J. Henderson. Rhule has already said he expects the rookie to be this year’s Jeremy Chinn, and I don’t think that’s hyperbole. This offensive is booming, and Dan Arnold had a real role that is now available for a rookie that is a much better athlete and prospect. Pay whatever it takes to score a tight end with a Noah Fant-like skill set to stash on your roster.
To the Moon
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase
Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 4/65/2
Snap Share: 83%
Target Share: 5 Target – 21.3%
Joe Burrow’s knee looks fine and the Bengal’s offense with Ja’Marr Chase looks more than legit. Burrow’s knee and camp woes look behind him and I’d buy into the cliche you keep hearing about the rookie receivers college connection with his quarterback. Chase looks like a top-five dynasty receiver who is worth every penny.
Buy or Sell the High: Just pay whatever it takes if you can afford it
Which rookies are you watching? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
