This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that should be getting more recognition due to how his college team performed but is still being disrespected.
Jerome Ford, RB Cincinnati
When prospecting running backs I use these metrics and thresholds to determine which players I like and don’t like. I also look at weight and BMI to help get a sense of the size/build of the player. For weight I want my RB to be at 205 lbs. or higher; this is based on studying historical hit rates of RBs at various weights. It is not super important, but it is a data point and it is useful to know the weights of players. For BMI, I want my RB to be at 30.0 or more. I find this slightly more important than weight, and it is alright to be under, 30 is just optimal. Now that we know all of what we are searching for, let’s look at how Jerome Ford measures up.
Analytical Profile
As you can see in the above Tweet, Ford either hits every mark or is close enough to earn partial credit. It is not often that a player hits all five production marks (only seven since 2013 have), so a profile like this still excites me. Scrimmage yards per game barely missing means he was successful in both facets of the game, rushing and receiving, and that is the number one goal when looking for a good rookie RB. Good career YPC, people like to devalue this stat but in my research, it translates well to the NFL. If you can’t be efficient in college there is no way you’ll be efficient in the NFL.
Dominant touchdown share: this shows his team trusted him on the goal-line but he also scored outside the red zone as well. It also shows he dominated the backfield and handled a workhorse role. We want RBs that catch passes and score TDs; Ford scores TDs. You can also see his blazing long speed in the above clip. A guy with that speed and red zone presence is a dynasty player’s dream.
Lastly, he hits the most important metric, yards per team play. So, Jerome Ford is efficient, he can score touchdowns, and he was utilized as a receiver. But, can he handle a workhorse role in the NFL? I think so, weighing in at 209 lbs. with a 29.35 BMI he is just big enough to fit the profile of a lead RB in the NFL.
Conclusion
Jerome Ford is a player that should be cemented in the top eight of your rookie RB rankings. If he gets drafted on day two of the NFL draft he could move as far up as four for me in this class. He has a good production profile at a great school, he has workhorse size, and he has shown skill as a receiver. Ford is currently my RB7 with room to improve. He will be one of my favorite players to draft in the mid to late second round of Superflex rookie drafts.
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