Since August 25th, I’ve had a thread pinned to my Twitter profile containing one Redraft prediction for each NFL team. Now that the fantasy football season is over, it’s time to look back at those predictions and see which ones were spot on and which were laughably wrong.
Since August 25th, I’ve had a thread pinned to my Twitter profile containing one Redraft prediction for each NFL team. Now that the fantasy football season is over, it’s time to look back at those predictions and see which ones were spot on and which were laughably wrong.
So, you lost in the fantasy playoffs. Now what? The way I see it, you’ve got two options. You can spend the next month sulking about how Terry McLaurin’s illegal formation penalty cost you a title (I’m totally over it as you can see), or you can get back to doing what you love most: drafting fantasy teams. If the season left a bad taste in your mouth, or you just aren’t ready to emerge from your fantasy football cave and rejoin polite society, you need playoff BestBall.
To best understand Pierce’s range of outcomes in the future, we first have to examine his current production. Pierce ranks as the RB13 in PPR leagues at the time of this writing. He has averaged 19.5 PPG over his last four games with at least 100 scrimmage yards in every contest. He’s been great for fantasy.
The first week of the NFL season rarely goes according to plan. We spend so much time speculating about roles, depth charts, and market shares, but then the actual football begins and suddenly Zack Moss is a featured satellite back and Joe Burrow can’t stop throwing interceptions. We don’t want to overreact, but we do have to react. That’s where the Panic Meter comes in. I’ll take the most stress-inducing players from Week 1, break down their performance, and let you know–on a scale of 1 to 10–just how much you’re allowed to worry.
Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’m taking a closer look at my 2022 redraft rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. Today I’ll be diving into the WR position.
Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’ll take a closer look at my 2022 Redraft Rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. This time around, I’ll be focusing on the RB position. Make sure you check out my full Redraft Rankings before your draft gets underway!
Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’ll take a closer look at my 2022 Redraft Rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. We’ll start with the QB position. Make sure you check out my full Redraft Rankings before your draft gets underway!
Welcome to the second installment of Tournament Drafting, the series in which I break down my entries for Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III and The Puppy. As I did in the first installment, I will be sharing my thoughts on roster construction, stacking, game theory, ADP, and everything in between. Let’s dive into this bizarre and frustrating draft.
Allen Robinson at WR32 was just silly value. Robinson is still in his prime and one year removed from back-to-back WR1 seasons with Mitchell Trubisky. Now he’s playing with Matthew Stafford in a high-powered offense. He can easily post high-end WR2 numbers playing alongside Cooper Kupp, and the sky is the limit if an injury occurs.
On Thursday, April 28th, at approximately 10:00 PM ET, A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 18th overall pick and a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. After this blockbuster deal, we need to recalibrate our expectations for every offensive player in Philadelphia and Tennessee. Who benefits the most, and whose stock is moving in the wrong direction?
Isaiah Spiller put together three productive (and nearly identical) seasons at Texas A&M. He took over the backfield as a freshman, pacing the team with 946 rushing yards and 10 TDs. He also added an impressive 29 receptions for 203 receiving yards. Despite the addition of track star Devon Achane to the Aggies’ backfield, Spiller’s 2020 season was essentially a rerun of 2019: 1,036 rushing yards, nine TDs, 20 receptions, 193 receiving yards. In 2021, Spiller’s junior season, Achane captured a larger percentage of the RB opportunities. However, with rushing QB Kellen Mond out of the picture, there was more work to go around. Spiller was able to crack 1,000 rushing yards once again while adding another 25 receptions.
Garrett Wilson is a complete receiver who will command significant snaps and targets from day one. He is capable of playing outside and in the slot, and he’s a homerun threat on any given play. Wilson has the upside to produce multiple WR1 seasons, and, perhaps just as important, his top-ten draft slot and skillset make him an incredibly safe investment.
Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.
In financial terms, arbitrage is a complicated concept that involves the simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset. In fantasy football, however, arbitrage has a simpler definition: get this guy instead of that guy. Typically, a fantasy football arbitrage involves two players with similar situations or ranges of outcome that are available at wildly different price points. For example, in 2021 best ball drafts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson went off the board around pick 55* while Jalen Hurts was available over 50 slots later, typically going around pick 109. All three QBs were prized for their rushing ability, and all three finished within one PPG. This means that Hurts was the better investment when considering the relative cost of each player.
For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.
With all of the postponed games, surprise flops, and COVID-related absences, Week 15 may have been the most chaotic week in the history of fantasy football. I mean, Duke Johnson was the RB1 for goodness’ sake. That being said, most of our picks performed as expected. In particular, Jalen Hurts came through with a strong performance that likely swayed many playoff matchups late on Tuesday evening. If you were able to come through with a win in Week 15, congratulations! Join me as I take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or let you down in the semi-finals.
The fantasy playoffs are officially in full swing, which means our margin for error has shrunk to zero. Every start/sit decision could mean the difference between advancing or falling short. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or let you down in this crucial week.
Once again, I need to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PsychWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 13. Despite his incredibly solid process, Matt had a pretty unlucky week of picks. Of course, in this totally upside-down season, we all seem to be getting more wrong than right. But this week, I’m hoping to right the ship. In many leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season. In others, the playoffs have already begun. Either way, there is a lot on the line. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 14.
Outside of Cole Beasley, none of the “starts” from Week 11 busted. Cam and Tua were actually QB1s! Plus, I jinxed Mike Williams back into fantasy relevance. Overall, I’d say it was a highly successful week in an otherwise confusing season. Hopefully, we can build on it in Week 12. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.
Let’s get into the picks.
