Author name: Paul Patterson

Staff Writer @DFF_Dynasty. Lover of ice cream. Christian. Husband. Fly Eagles Fly. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball

Cam Akers

The Panic Meter: Week 1

The first week of the NFL season rarely goes according to plan. We spend so much time speculating about roles, depth charts, and market shares, but then the actual football begins and suddenly Zack Moss is a featured satellite back and Joe Burrow can’t stop throwing interceptions. We don’t want to overreact, but we do have to react. That’s where the Panic Meter comes in. I’ll take the most stress-inducing players from Week 1, break down their performance, and let you know–on a scale of 1 to 10–just how much you’re allowed to worry.

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Redraft Rankings Spotlight: WRs

Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’m taking a closer look at my 2022 redraft rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. Today I’ll be diving into the WR position.

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Redraft Rankings Spotlight: RBs

Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’ll take a closer look at my 2022 Redraft Rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. This time around, I’ll be focusing on the RB position. Make sure you check out my full Redraft Rankings before your draft gets underway!

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Redraft Rankings Spotlight: QBs

Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’ll take a closer look at my 2022 Redraft Rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. We’ll start with the QB position. Make sure you check out my full Redraft Rankings before your draft gets underway!

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Tournament Drafting: Entry #2

Welcome to the second installment of Tournament Drafting, the series in which I break down my entries for Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III and The Puppy. As I did in the first installment, I will be sharing my thoughts on roster construction, stacking, game theory, ADP, and everything in between. Let’s dive into this bizarre and frustrating draft.

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Best Ball Tournament Drafting: Entry #1

Allen Robinson at WR32 was just silly value. Robinson is still in his prime and one year removed from back-to-back WR1 seasons with Mitchell Trubisky. Now he’s playing with Matthew Stafford in a high-powered offense. He can easily post high-end WR2 numbers playing alongside Cooper Kupp, and the sky is the limit if an injury occurs.

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Winners and Losers of the A.J. Brown Trade

On Thursday, April 28th, at approximately 10:00 PM ET, A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 18th overall pick and a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. After this blockbuster deal, we need to recalibrate our expectations for every offensive player in Philadelphia and Tennessee. Who benefits the most, and whose stock is moving in the wrong direction?

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Isaiah Spiller

Isaiah Spiller put together three productive (and nearly identical) seasons at Texas A&M. He took over the backfield as a freshman, pacing the team with 946 rushing yards and 10 TDs. He also added an impressive 29 receptions for 203 receiving yards. Despite the addition of track star Devon Achane to the Aggies’ backfield, Spiller’s 2020 season was essentially a rerun of 2019: 1,036 rushing yards, nine TDs, 20 receptions, 193 receiving yards. In 2021, Spiller’s junior season, Achane captured a larger percentage of the RB opportunities. However, with rushing QB Kellen Mond out of the picture, there was more work to go around. Spiller was able to crack 1,000 rushing yards once again while adding another 25 receptions. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is a complete receiver who will command significant snaps and targets from day one. He is capable of playing outside and in the slot, and he’s a homerun threat on any given play. Wilson has the upside to produce multiple WR1 seasons, and, perhaps just as important, his top-ten draft slot and skillset make him an incredibly safe investment.

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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patriots team needs

Art of Arbitrage

In financial terms, arbitrage is a complicated concept that involves the simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset. In fantasy football, however, arbitrage has a simpler definition: get this guy instead of that guy. Typically, a fantasy football arbitrage involves two players with similar situations or ranges of outcome that are available at wildly different price points. For example, in 2021 best ball drafts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson went off the board around pick 55* while Jalen Hurts was available over 50 slots later, typically going around pick 109. All three QBs were prized for their rushing ability, and all three finished within one PPG. This means that Hurts was the better investment when considering the relative cost of each player.

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DFF Dynasty SF PPR Mock Draft Review: Positional Breakdown

For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.

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Paul’s Picks Week 16

With all of the postponed games, surprise flops, and COVID-related absences, Week 15 may have been the most chaotic week in the history of fantasy football. I mean, Duke Johnson was the RB1 for goodness’ sake. That being said, most of our picks performed as expected. In particular, Jalen Hurts came through with a strong performance that likely swayed many playoff matchups late on Tuesday evening. If you were able to come through with a win in Week 15, congratulations! Join me as I take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or let you down in the semi-finals.

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Joe Burrow. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Paul’s Picks: Week 15

The fantasy playoffs are officially in full swing, which means our margin for error has shrunk to zero. Every start/sit decision could mean the difference between advancing or falling short. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or let you down in this crucial week.

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Paul’s Picks: Week 14

Once again, I need to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PsychWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 13. Despite his incredibly solid process, Matt had a pretty unlucky week of picks. Of course, in this totally upside-down season, we all seem to be getting more wrong than right. But this week, I’m hoping to right the ship. In many leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season. In others, the playoffs have already begun. Either way, there is a lot on the line. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 14.

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Paul’s Picks: Week 12

Outside of Cole Beasley, none of the “starts” from Week 11 busted. Cam and Tua were actually QB1s! Plus, I jinxed Mike Williams back into fantasy relevance. Overall, I’d say it was a highly successful week in an otherwise confusing season. Hopefully, we can build on it in Week 12. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Paul’s Picks: Week 11

I’d like to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PyschWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 10. I hope you took his advice and started D’Ernest Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Rashod Bateman, DeVonta Smith, and Tyler Conklin. He was also right about benching my beloved D.J. Moore, who struggled in the midst of Carolina’s QB transition. Matt is a Swiss army knife of content at DFF, so make sure you check out his other work on the site. Meanwhile, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 11.

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Paul’s Picks – Week 9

I whiffed on a lot of “starts” in Week 8. Truthfully, I’m still reeling from Kenny Gainwell’s usage, or lack thereof, and the duds we saw from Mike Williams and Emmanuel Sanders. But at least the “sits” were spot on. Now it’s time to take a look at Week 9. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Paul’s Picks – Week 8

Week 7’s “starts” brought you the QB1, QB11, RB12, WR4, WR18, and TE3. I also helped you to avoid duds from Sam Darnold, Tyler Lockett, and Tyler Boyd. So, let’s focus on that rather than my advice to play Allen Robinson or bench Joe Burrow and D’Ernest Johnson… Anyway, with just two teams on bye this week, we have more fun players to choose from in Week 8. So, I’ve decided to add some “honorable mentions” to the mix this week. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.Let’s get into the picks.

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Paul’s Picks – Week 7

I’m not going to lie, the “starts” were brutal in Week 6. Taylor Heinicke, Chase Edmonds, Kenny Gainwell, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman failed to provide average performances, let alone exceed expectations. I refuse to take the L on Kadarius Toney, though, who had three receptions for 36 yards before being injured in the first …

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