Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.
The NFL Combine
Each year the NFL Combine hosts about 40 of the top college running backs from around the country who have declared for this year’s NFL draft. They then have these players perform drills, various tests, as well as weigh them and measure their heights. The test and measurements I will be looking at are the 40-yard dash and a back’s height, weight, and BMI. The white label casino offers a complete casino solutions with robust software, designs, payment gateway and world-class customer support.
My Thresholds
I currently have a formulaic model that grades the incoming rookie running backs. My model was created by using regression analysis against varying college stats and metrics to determine not only what stats are important but also what thresholds ‘Elite’ backs tend to hit. To do this I compared a list of all drafted RBs since 2013 with their stats/metrics and compared them to their career fantasy pointer per game in the NFL. Through this analysis, I have determined the following marks you should want to see from a potential rookie running back you would draft. I want their height to be at least 5’8”, their weight to be 205 lbs., their BMI to be 30, and their 40 times to be 4.60 or faster. With these in mind, let’s look at how the 2022 RB class performed.
The 2022 Class
The Good
Only about one quarter or 25% of the backs were able to achieve all four thresholds. These are the guys I would give some precedence to in my rookie drafts, especially if they can pair this with good college production. Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Tyler Allgeier fit the bill here. All of them hit all of my thresholds but also had great production in college. Some other names to look out for here include Sincere McCormick, Keaontay Ingram, Isaiah Pacheco, Kevin Harris, Max Borghi, and Dameon Pierce.
The Bad
Brian Robinson missing BMI was a shocker to me, I thought he was a shoo-in for 30+, but he missed and that is a concern. Isaiah Spiller missing BMI is not good as well. Jerome Ford also missing BMI was upsetting for me as I am such a big fan of his, but he will remain in my top 10 becks. It would have been great to see Pierre strong hit BMI but I was not expecting it. I also was not expecting a 4.37, 40-yard dash time from him either so overall I am very excited for him. Rachaad White missing BMI is concerning because he is supposed to be a big, bruising back. Lastly, Zamir White and Zonovan Knight both missing BMI was a disappointment. These players are not off my board but they have taken some hits.
The Ugly
Kyren Williams. That is it.
Just joking, in all seriousness, no one saw Kyren tanking the combine the way he did. He showed up underweight, under BMI, and still ran one of the slowest 40 times in the class. He essentially showed up late and drunk to the most important interview of his life. I would be shocked if he got drafted on Day 2 of the draft. He might even fall to round six. He is off my board. Some other guys that have fallen off my board are Jashaun Corbin and Jerrion Ealy.
Conclusion
The combine matters, probably more for running back than any other skill position. It affects draft capital which then affects their NFL production. Besides that, we want players that are at least 5’8”, 205 lbs., 30+ BMI, and 4.60 or faster. Pair these thresholds with Good production and you will see a lot more hits in your rookie drafts. My current top four rookies RBs are Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Isaiah Spiller, and Tyler Allgeier. Hopeful this article not only helps you target and avoid guys in the 2022 class but teaches you what to look for during your own research.
Also, make sure to check out our Does Size Matter? pieces for Quarterback and Wide Receiver.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, #Rankings, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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