Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy?
We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010). Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.
The best gauge of future success is combining who they were as a prospect and who they were as a rookie. So, let’s take a deeper look at what to do with each of these face planters getting buy-low attention.
Henry Ruggs
After going as a first-round rookie pick just a year ago, Ruggs is going for a mid-second in one quarterback league. This dip in value is thanks to a rookie season where he only accumulated 34.8 yards per game which translated to a measly per game PPR score of 6.8. What other Low Ceiling Beta prospects failed to score 7 PPR their first season?
The probability of Ruggs eclipsing a top 24 season appears like an unlikely feat. In which case we would much rather own a mid-second than Henry Ruggs.
Denzel Mims
Mims was a second-round pick in the NFL Draft as well as rookie drafts. He’s also become a popular buy over the off-season, valued ahead of assets such as Corey Davis, Brandin Cooks, Robby Anderson, and a 2021 mid-second (values courtesy of keeptradecut.com). All those receivers have something that Mims doesn’t have, a record of production. Mims finished his rookie season only seeing a target share of 19% which seems positive. Unfortunately, it only resulted in 6.5 PPR. 91 receivers fell under the categorization of “Bust Prospect Betas” that failed to score 7 PPR their first season. 4.4% eclipsed a top 24 season while 2.2% eclipsed a top 12 season. Just sell Mims and run.
Van Jefferson
Jefferson was an awful prospect and an even worse buy prop. He proved this by failing to score just 3 PPR last season. Yet is still getting called a buy-low this off-season. The reasoning for it I cannot exactly explain because I do not know why. He’s being valued as a fringe second-rounder and ahead of new second-round teammate Tutu Atwell. There have been 107 Bust prospects that failed to score just 3 PPR their first season. Only one achieved a top 24 season. Don’t touch Van Jefferson.
Jalen Reagor
Unlike the rest of these mentioned, Reagor was a first-round pick in both the NFL draft and in rookie drafts. Reagor’s 396 yards and a touchdown were good for 7.2 PPR. Reagor was also a better prospect than those previously listed making him more interesting. What does all of this mean for Reagor’s future success outlook? Taking all the Upside prospects that were considered face plants we get this grouping.
Underwhelming doesn’t quite do this grouping justice. It should also give us more confidence in avoiding or, better yet, selling Reagor.
Buying a rookie face planter is likely not a sound strategy to gain value. Selling these rookie face planters while they still have value such as a second-round pick is a much better strategy when it comes to gaining value. Use the buy-low hype to your advantage and sell the hype.
Until the next article, follow me on Twitter @dynasty_im!
