Stonk Down

Quarterback

Davis Mills

Week 4 Stats – Passing: 11/21 Attempts 87 Yards 0/4 TD/INT  Rush: 1/2/0

Sacked: 3

And just like that, the legend of Davis Mills is over. The rookie threw four picks against a stout Bills defense and looked just like a quarterback who only had 13 total starts in a college career marred by injuries. The Texans as a whole aren’t ready to compete with a Super Bowl-caliber team, so it’s no surprise that project QB with the career ceiling of Luke McCown was dismantled. The only Texan worth any fantasy value is Brandin Cooks, so his trade value is a throw-in at best.

Buy or Sell the Dip: Try to get something

Running Back

Ty’Son Williams

Week 4 Stats: Nope

Snap Share: LOL

Ty’Son Williams had his shot to be this season’s James Robinson and he blew it. The rookie was a healthy scratch during Week 4 after slowly falling out of favor. Williams looked like an explosive runner and certainly younger than vets brought in, but continued to make mistakes in pass protections and handoffs. Coaches would rather go with a plodder with a clean game and protects the quarterback than a project player that could put their season in jeopardy by missing a blitz pick-up. Williams has no value beyond this after J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return from injury and you need to be a little desperate to get any value out of him.

Buy or Sell the Dip: Probably too late to sell, but doesn’t hurt to try.

Chuba Hubbard

Week 4 Stats: Rush – 13/57/0 Receiving – 2/14/0

Snap Share: 47%

The Chuba Sell Window opened and quickly closed. Hubbard didn’t dominate the backfield like Mike Davis did a year before and yielded targets and snaps to both Royce Freeman and Rodney Smith. The rookie backup looked explosive on the ground, but the Panthers clearly aren’t ready to make him a true every-down back when there’s injury by rotating in Smith on passing downs. Christian McCaffrey has already returned to practice and Hubbards days as a startable option seem over.

Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell 

Wide Receiver

Terrace Marshall Jr.

Week 4 Stats: Receiving – 1/2/0

Snap Share: 71%

Target Share: 3 Targets – 11.6%

I’m officially worried about all my Terrace Marshall takes for the current season. The rookie wideout has seen a steady increase of snaps over the first four games but hasn’t materialized opportunity into production. D.J. Moore is the true Alpha and is commanding 29.5% of the offense as Darnold’s safety blanket and targets outside of him are hard to come by at the moment. However, Sam Darnold looks like the franchise quarterback that many thought he’d be when the Jets drafted him out of USC. All it will take is time for his further development and upgrades on the offensive line and he’ll this connection will grow and turn Marshall into a true fantasy WR2.

But or Sell the Dip: Buy 

Jaylen Waddle

Week 4 Stats: Receiving – 3/33/0

Snap Share: 79%

Target Share: 4 Targets – 20.7%

Jaylen Waddle is really good, but Jacoby Brissett is not. The Alabama product has seen his production drop since the Tua Tagovailoa injury and nobody should be panicking. Brissett is only a game manager on a good day and Miami hasn’t even had the opportunity to unlock the deep ball ability of Waddle without a QB who can push the ball downfield. The rookie has favorable matchups the next three weeks with Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Atlanta on the schedule while Will Fuller is likely to return to IR. A boom is all but imminent with the volume being peppered on the rookie.

Buy or Sell the Dip: Cash in on that discount playa

Tight End

Tommy Tremble

Week 4 Stats: Receiving – *Womp Womp*

Snap Share: 39%

Target Share: 1 Target – 1.4% 

There are several factors working against Tommy Tremble and none of them are talent. He’s still a rookie tight end, he needs a much higher snap share, and he’s on the same team as D.J. Moore. Rookie tight ends are notoriously slow starters so patience is going to be needed with Tremble and he should be sitting on your taxi squad until a true breakout game happens. The Panthers have shown that they’re all in by trading starter Dan Arnold to the Jaguars even after he built a rapport with Sam Darnold during camp. The offense as a whole is an off-season away from being elite so get a piece of it while he’s still cheap.

Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy

HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence

Week 4 Stats – Passing: 17/24 Attempts, 204 Yards, 0/0 TD/INT  Rush: 8/36/1

Sacked: 1

We finally saw #1 overall pick cook a little bit. Trevor Lawrence didn’t have a passing touchdown but still played an efficient game after the coaching staff managed to incorporate the read-option to generate a run game. This showed Lawrence’s underrated athleticism to make things happen with his legs and sparking a trickle-down effect throughout the offense. Moreover, Lawrence was able to extend plays and take pressure off of the entire offense because the defense has to honor his mobility. 

Play action boots will be this team’s best friend due to their talented skill players and poor offensive line. James Robinson will have more efficient runs that will gash a defense now that defenders have to honor two rushers and a better run game translates to an effective play-action that gives their QB time to extend plays with a poor line. This team should live and die by the run and big play, but Lawrence has a nice rushing floor that we thought we had with the rookie below.

Justin Fields

Week 4 Stats – Passing: 11/17 Attempts, 209 Yards, 0/1 TD/INT  Rush: 3/9/0, 1 FUM

Sacked: 1

I wish I would’ve made a bet that Trevor Lawrence would have almost triple the number of rush attempts as Justin Fields this week because Matt Nagy doesn’t seem to understand that he has an athletic quarterback. We’re missing the Konami Code element that makes Fields such a high upside play because his coach won’t scheme an offense that uses all of his skills. It was still encouraging to see him challenge the defense with his big arm with some success despite the rushing flop. It’s encouraging that Nagy has committed Fields the rest of the season and we can hope he tailors the offense more for fields and less for Dalton. Nagy is probably gone at the end of the season either way.

Running Back

Najee Harris

Week 4 Stats: Rush – 15/62/1 Receiving – 6/27/0

Snap Share: 80%

Another solid game for Najee Harris. Another washed-up performance from Ben Roethlisberger that makes me concerned for every Steeler fantasy asset I own. Harris is proving that volume is king but that doesn’t quell my fear that these numbers aren’t sustainable unless either his QB or his line gets better. I trust this organization to make the right moves in the offseason to improve the line and replace Roethlisberger either in the draft or free agency and am willing to hold on despite how ugly it looks due to the high volume floor and the talent

Kenneth Gainwell

Week 4 Stats: Rush – 3/31/1 Receiving – 6/58/0

Snap Share: 39%

Kenneth Gainwell is going to be annoying for everyone, but now is not the time to sell him. The Eagles are clearly running with a two-headed approach like most of the NFL and any week can be huge with his high receiving floor and red zone usage. Gainwell is a flexy starter that will be a boom or bust option every week but the receiving work has him already ranked ahead of “starter” Miles Sanders in all formats. Sanders was a product of the old regime and it appears the new staff has more trust in Gainwell to handle two-minute drill and scoring work. Running back is too thin for you to give up a young rookie with upside.

Wide Receiver

Rondale Moore

Week 3 Stats: Receiving – 3/28 Rushing – 2/9/0

Snap Share: 42%

Target Share: 3 Target – 13.4%

The Arizona Cardinals are the last undefeated team remaining and their quarterback is pretty good at football. Kyler Murray is consistently spreading the ball to seven different targets and any week could be a boom day for Rondale Moore in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Situation can get in the way of talented players gaining the production they deserve and right now we have a dynamic player in a deep receiving room with the likes of A.J. Green and Christian Kirk. Both of their contracts are done after this season so we’re betting that Moore will have more room to grow in 2022 when one or both are gone next season.

Stonk Up

Quarterback

Zach Wilson

Week 3 Stats – Passing: 21/34 Attempts 297 Yards 2/1 TD/INT  Rush: 3/-2/0

Sacked: 1

Zach Wilson did what he needed to give me hope that it’s more about the offense and less about his personal talent by playing well (and winning) against the Titans. Tennessee has a porous defense and the rookie was able to take advantage of it by playing within the offense instead of forcing throws with his arm. It’s still unknown if this will be consistent or just matchup dependent for the rest of the season, but next week’s matchup against Atlanta is a key test to understand if he can perform against the defenses he’s supposed to. The Jets still have lots to improve on as a team so Wilson will be a project to stash you hope you don’t need to play.

Buy or Sell High: Yes if winning now. Hold if rebuilding.

Mac Jones

Week 4 Stats – Passing: 31/40 Attempts 275 Yards 2/1 TD/INT  Rush: 1/-1/0

Sacked: 4

Mac Jones has continued to do everything the Patriots have asked him to do and I’m concerned they just aren’t asking enough. Not only did they rob their rookie of a chance to beat the GOAT and former face of the team, but they still refuse to challenge defenses deep. Jones has the talent and intangibles to be good in real football and fantasy by giving him an opportunity to use the highly paid receiving targets to catch more than dump-offs. The rookie can throw deep and has proven that since being second only to this receiver in the Heisman race. Jones won’t have a rushing floor and needs to improve at navigating a dirty pocket but can be a steady and effective passer if given the opportunity.

Buy or Sell High: Buy 

Running Back

Trey Sermon

Week 4 Stats: Rush – 19/89/0 Receiving – *Crickets*

Snap Share: 51%

Trey Sermon rushed much better in his second start, but I’m still not convinced that he’ll be RB1 when Elijah Mitchell returns. Sermon is still getting out-snapped by Kyle Juszczyk and doesn’t exist in the passing game which is more than concerning. I’d feel more comfortable trading him for a different asset or pick.

Buy or Sell High: Sell

Michael Carter

Week 4 Stats: Rush – 13/38/1 Receiving – 1/-4/0

Snap Share: 51%

Michael Carter is slowly asserting himself as the Alpha of the backfield. The real question is how valuable the Jets “Alpha” actually is with the poorly performing Jets offensive line. We might have to wait for the return of Mekhi Becton in a month or so along with further upgrades across the line in the offseason to see Carter’s full potential, but he might be a situational flex option until then.

Buy or Sell High: Buy

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 4 Stats: 6/70/0

Snap Share: 43%

Target Share:  8 Target – 11.1%

Of course Amon-Ra St. Brown would have a day right after I was ready to give up hope. The rookie out of USC took advantage of his snap increase and put up a modest PPR performance. St. Brown served as a second option checkdown that capilized at making the catch but was unable to do much after the fact. The Lions rookie wideout is great at doing the little things like being a willing run blocker and savvy route-runner and it will take OC Anthony Lynn to continue to keep him in the gameplan. I’m willing to sell the rookie now for a player in a better situation.

Buy or Sell High: Buy

Kadarius Toney

Week 4 Stats: Receiving – 6/78/0

Snap Share: 78%

Target Share: 9 Targets – 9.7%

Kadarius Toney is a bigger surprise pop than Amon-Ra St. Brown. Toney gets the start after injuries keep Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard remain on the sideline due to injury. I haven’t been shy about my criticisms of Toney in previous reports due to skill and situation, but the Giants are proving me wrong as a whole. I have my questions about how permanent his role is going forward because the volume came after injuries to starters. Toney oozes athletic talent but has never shown enough polish to impress me further as an NFL prospect. I’m not willing to pay high and believe I can get him cheaper after a few buy weeks.

Buy or Sell High: Sell

To the Moon

Quarterback

Trey Lance

Week 4 Stats – Passing: 9/18 Attempts 157 Yards 2/0 TD/INT  Rush: 7/41/0

Sacked: 1

Jimmy Garoppolo is out with an injury like many Trey Lance owners were counting on. Lance not only has rushing upside but has a Josh Allen-like big arm to make plays downfield that Garoppolo hasn’t been able to gain. However, most of the production from Lance’s Week 4 came from a busted play where Deebo Samuel went uncovered for a touchdown. The rookie has tons of upside and plenty of talent but lacks the polish to be a consistent passer. Lance missed several throws and got lucky that a few easy interceptions were dropped. I’m willing to buy Lance due to his rushing upside and the fact he’s under the creative tutelage of Kyle Shanahan.

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith

Week 4 Stats: Receiving – 7/122/0

Snap Share: 92%

Target Share: 9 Target – 21.2% 

DeVonta Smith is exactly the player we thought he was in college and is the clear WR1 in Philidelphia. The rookie has proven that he is an elite separator throughout four weeks and is consistently open at all three levels of the field. Jalen Hurts needs a healthy offensive line to buy himself time and Smti can flirt with fantasy WR2 numbers. The Eagles look like a superior clone to what the Colts want to do and Smith is the primary beneficiary of targets from a quarterback with nothing but room to grow.

Which rookies are you watching? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.